Under US pressure, Mark Carney wages a diplomatic blitz

As President Donald Trump was at the White House regaling Chinese President Xi Jinping on a state visit, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was in New York City meeting with diplomatic delegations on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly. The regressing U.S.-Canada relationship is the source of Carney’s diplomatic blitz.The Trump administration’s decision to slap 50% tariffs on approximately $20 billion of Canadian goods, coupled with Carney’s tariff retaliation, has driven a once intimate foreign relationship into a ditch. Trump’s willingness to escalate the trade war as well as his periodic outbursts questioning Canada’s very sovereignty can hardly be called normal. Canadian officials are worried, the Canadian public is angry.Entering office in March 2025, Carney, the United Kingdom’s former central banker, reiterated that Ottawa needed to bolster its global relationships in face of Trump’s pressure. He recognized that Canada couldn’t afford to carry on with business as usual, nor assume relations with Washington would return to stability once Trump has left office. Still, the malaise in U.S. relations creates a big challenge. In 2025, Canada exported more than 70% of its goods to the United States, while receiving nearly 50% of its goods in the reverse. The automotive sector, one of Canada’s big industries, is deeply connected with the U.S. market, which means U.S.-imposed tariffs on any part of the supply chain have the potential to cause major problems. The dependency is just as significant in defense; Canada spends about 70% of its weapons budget on American systems. Carney now has a goal of allocating 70% of Canada’s rising defense budget to Canadian weapons manufacturers over the next decade. Canada is also getting closer to the European Union. Carney views Europe as a massive market for Canadian exports. The Canadians are also on the prowl for European military kit, with some European defense firms, such as Saab, becoming partners of choice over American alternatives. Carney continues to review the purchase of 88 American-made F-35 fighter jets, both to send a message to Trump and to consider more affordable air assets instead.Regardless, it’s a mistake for Trump to dismiss Canada as unimportant, weak, or easy prey. Yes, the Canadian military can’t match up with that of its southern neighbor. Yes, Canada’s economy is less than one-tenth the size of America’s. And yes, Canada would be in a world of hurt without the American market. But Washington’s northern neighbor has some leverage of its own.For one, about 60% of Canada’s crude oil exports go to the U.S. American households and businesses in places like Northern California and the Pacific Northwest keep the lights on courtesy of Canadian natural gas. Some Canadian politicians, most prominently Ontario Premier Doug Ford, have called on the Canadian government to use the country’s natural resources as a chip in negotiations — something Carney opposes. But when asked about the prospect of such a move this week, Carney responded, “Never say never.”WATCHDOG URGES DHS TO REVIEW MICROSOFT CONTRACTSWe shouldn’t overstate this crisis. The U.S. and Canada remain allies, at least on paper. Both are members of NATO and, thanks to NORAD, the U.S. and Canadian militaries remain highly interoperable. And at more than $715 billion, trade between the two remains solid.But Trump is learning that coercive actions often have unpredictable consequences.