Main electoral battle will be for Israel's centrist voters, with far-right, left already set - poll

ByANNA BARSKYJULY 21, 2026 22:25Most Israelis already know, at least to a large extent, which party they will vote for in the upcoming election, but the group of undecided voters that could determine the outcome is concentrated primarily in the political center, according to the Jewish People Policy Institute’s Israeli Society Index, published ahead of the election expected in the fall.According to the index, 53% of Israelis are completely certain whom they will vote for, while another 29% are fairly certain of their decision. Some 14% are still waiting for the political map to become clearer, and 4% say they will not vote.Certainty is particularly high at the political extremes. On the Left, 71% are already completely certain of their choice, compared with 58% on the Right. The proportion of undecided voters rises closer to the center. On the Center-Right, 22% are still waiting to see which parties will run, while only 44% of centrists are completely certain whom they will support.The figures indicate that the main electoral battle is expected to focus on centrist voters.Identification with the Right continues to strengthen among Jewish Israelis. Some 66% of Jewish respondents defined themselves as belonging to one of the categories on the Right, compared with 63% in July 2025. The proportion defining themselves as “exactly in the center” rose from 10% to 13%, while the proportion identifying with the Left fell from 22% to 19%.Residents of Kfar Yona protest against an ultra-Orthodox demonstration opposing the arrest of Haredi draft evaders near the Beit Lid military prison in central Israel, June 24, 2026. (credit: Tal Gal/Flash90)Only 3% of Jewish respondents described themselves as being on the “Left,” while an almost negligible proportion placed themselves on the “far Left.”Among Arab respondents, by contrast, half placed themselves on the Left, compared with 47% last year. At the same time, the proportion of Arab respondents who said they could not place themselves anywhere on the political spectrum fell from 21% to 15%, a change the institute said could indicate increasing political organization ahead of the election.Security, justice system among key topics for IsraelisThe index also examined the main consideration expected to determine respondents’ votes. Security ranked first among 28% of all respondents. It was followed by relations between the government and the judicial system, at 18%; advancing Israel as a more liberal country, at 15%; and promoting unity and reducing divisions, at 13%.Behind the national figures are sharply different sets of priorities.Among right-wing voters, security led with 40%, followed by relations between the government and the judicial system at 30%. In the Center, Center-Left and Left, the most important issue was advancing Israel as a more liberal country, with support ranging from 35% to 38%.Among Arab respondents, security ranked first with 34%, followed by the economy with 26%. Among Jewish respondents, by contrast, the economy was barely viewed as a decisive consideration, with only 5% ranking it first.The connection between the judicial system and support for the right-wing bloc was particularly pronounced. Some 70% of respondents who identified relations between the government and the judicial system as the issue most important to them preferred a right-wing coalition.Of those respondents, 41% wanted a government based on the current bloc, while 29% supported adding a centrist party.The institute said the figures showed that the judicial system was expected to remain a central election issue and serve as a unifying focus for right-wing voters.Most Israelis have fixed preferencesJewish People Policy Institute President Prof. Yedidia Stern said that “most Israelis are entering the election campaign with established preferences, and therefore the political battle will focus on the votes of those in the centrist bloc.”He said the judicial system remained a central component of the Right’s political identity, even after nearly three years in which the war dominated the public agenda.“Israeli society continues to engage with fundamental questions concerning the state and its character, and not only with security,” he said.Stern added that previous institute surveys had shown that the public views internal division as one of the main threats facing Israel.Against this backdrop, he called for the formation of the broadest possible coalition after the election, one that would establish agreed-upon rules for managing political disputes and advance the idea of a “thin constitution,” which the institute is drafting with a team of experts from across Israeli society.The survey was conducted through the Israeli Society Index panel and, among the Arab public, through the Afkar research company. The data were weighted according to voting patterns and level of religious observance in an effort to represent the views of the Israeli public as a whole.The index was prepared by Shmuel Rosner and Noah Slepkov. Research and production were conducted by Yael Levinovsky, and statistical consultation was provided by Prof. David Steinberg.Follow us on Google