US-Saudi nuclear deal shows the Abraham Accords is a positive incentive - analysis

BySETH J. FRANTZMANJULY 22, 2026 21:01Updated: JULY 22, 2026 21:28The US is expected to move forward with a pact for Saudi Arabia that will focus on civilian nuclear power, according to a New York Times report on Tuesday.The potential deal is raising eyebrows in Israel and the region because it does not appear to include Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords or normalizing ties with Israel.The full details are not known, and the United States Congress will want to know more about this pact. However, the story sheds light on an important issue relating to the Abraham Accords. They should be viewed as a positive incentive and not seen as a negative trade-off.What this means is that the original Abraham Accords appealed to countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain because these countries wanted to normalize ties with Israel. The Trump administration’s backing for this agreement back in 2020 was key because it provided an American umbrella.The US has key bases in Bahrain and the UAE. Therefore, there was a sense of security in these countries. In addition, the countries felt they were getting something. At the time, it should be remembered that the COVID-19 pandemic was keeping the world locked down. In addition, the Trump administration had floated its vision for “Peace to Prosperity” for the Palestinians.Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan receives Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (credit: BANDAR ALGALOUD / SAUDI ROYAL COURT / REUTERS)US maintains bases throughout the regionThere was talk in Israel in early 2020 about potential annexation of the West Bank. When Israel climbed down from its agenda, the UAE and Bahrain moved forward with the Accords. There was a sense that Israel had given up on annexation.Therefore, everyone got something. US President Donald Trump is best at making deals when everyone benefits. This is how the Gaza ceasefire deal came about in September and October 2025. The administration has proven less successful when there are threats.Therefore, the new potential nuclear pact with Saudi Arabia should be examined on its merits. Claims that Saudi Arabia should have to normalize in order to receive civilian nuclear power will make Riyadh feel that US policy is linked solely to this issue of Israel and normalization.Riyadh will wonder why there isn’t an equal amount of pressure on Israel to move toward providing Palestinians rights. Saudi Arabia has been a key leader of the Muslim and Arab world, and it has held out a hand in peace, but it wants to see progress in Jerusalem regarding the Palestinians.The US has learned in the past that a policy that uses negative trade-offs with Israel or the Arab states often doesn’t work. For instance, former US secretary of state John Kerry once said that normalization would not happen without movement on the Palestinian issue.Rather than getting Israel to be flexible, this cudgel turned Israel stubborn and made it wait out the Obama administration. Using peace as a punishment has not worked well in the past. Using peace as an incentive so that all sides feel they have something to show for it has tended to work better.Riyadh has made it clear what it wants to see in Jerusalem. If Israel isn’t willing to have a give-and-take, then Saudi Arabia will tell the US that it shouldn’t be prevented from receiving things simply because Jerusalem’s policies are being too inflexible.This is why the perceived trade-off of Saudi nuclear energy for normalization may not have worked. All Israel’s leaders felt they had to do was wait, and they felt Riyadh would then have to change tack. This is essentially what Kerry had said to Israel: The Arab countries could wait, and Israel would have to change to get things from them.Historically, this has not worked. Trump was able to unlock the Abraham Accords by creating a framework where the US showed its support and the UAE, Bahrain, and Israel all got something. No one had to give up much.Riyadh clear on Jerusalem position, give-and-takeFrance24 noted, “The Trump administration plans to submit to Congress a pact with Saudi Arabia to share nuclear power technology that does not include a plan for normalization with Israel or safeguards the US has long said would stop materials from being used in nuclear weapons programs, the Times reported on Tuesday.”Riyadh has wanted this deal for many years. It has also shown that, at times, it is willing to hedge on issues related to the US. Saudi Arabia is a strong and historic partner of the US. It is also a powerful Muslim and Arab country.It has been willing to hold talks with China and to consider its economic policies and how they might fit into other economic blocs, such as BRICS or the China-linked Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Saudi Arabia joined the SCO as a partner in 2023. This goes back to talks before 2021. The kingdom has held off on joining BRICS, an economic bloc that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.Saudi Arabia has done other outreach. It signed a defense pact with Pakistan, which is a friend of the US and the Trump administration.Riyadh’s increasingly close ties with Turkey, Syria, and Egypt have raised some concerns in Jerusalem. Some Israeli policymakers appear to think Saudi Arabia is drifting away from the Abraham Accords and no longer sees them as necessary.The feeling among some is that Riyadh is increasingly joining a Sunni bloc of countries that may be more hostile to Israel.Follow us on Google