UFC Serbia Prime Picks: Three underdogs worth a closer look

UFC Serbia odds analysis featuring Jan Blachowicz and Marcin Tybura We at Sherdog provide regular, in-depth preview coverage for all major events, including our oft-praised preview column along with our “Sheehan Show” handling all sorts of related matters including betting. With those official sources for picks handled, we would like to take the edge off here and get a bit lighter with one final breakdown. The industry of sports betting is exploding before our very eyes, with billions of dollars pumping in since legalization stateside. Oftentimes, those driving the lines are right on the money with their openings, valuations and analyses. Occasionally, they are way off, or otherwise merit some additional conversation. That is where we come in with this reinvigorated series of Prime Picks, where, swiping a line from game show host Sam Reich, we hold hands and jump into the abyss together for the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s maiden voyage to Serbia on Saturday. Try it out. “40 is the new 30” Jan Blachowicz (+260) OR Marcin Tybura (+280) Why Not Both Total: (+1268) First off, we are not suggesting that one should go out on a limb for both Blachowicz and Tybura, but rather that one should choose their poison. The most daring, optimistic bettors might be tempted to throw a few bucks on the flier, but we see that as just a way to pad the betting company’s bank account. One or the other, however, could pull off the upset as elder statesmen in their respective divisions of light heavyweight and heavyweight. The “fighting uncle” movement is still very much in play. Having turned 43 in February, former champ Blachowicz is unquestionably on the tail end of his UFC career. The last time he won a fight, Glover Teixeira held the belt in their weight class and future star Paddy Pimblett just picked up his second win under the UFC banner. There is an age cliff that every athlete encounters, and that includes Yoel Romero even as he draws Darren Till soon without gloves on. With that gloom-and-doom surrounding the Polish vet’s tenure out in the open, there are still ample ways he can pick up the win. After all, if a top-10 Bogdan Guskov—whom he drew with in December—is the worst loss he has suffered in that stretch, who is to say how “washed” he is against burgeoning talent? Blachowicz is an equal opportunity finisher despite his reputation of “Polish Power,” with that expectation looming so large that most forget he posts an equal number of subs to knockouts. It has not been since 2018 that he landed one, and it is not the implication that he will put Navajo Stirling in danger with offensive submission grappling, but rather that he has demonstrated a wherewithal in the field to add another wrinkle to his game. Additionally, Blachowicz serves as sneakily effective takedown artist, practically shutting down Israel Adesanya in a performance that at the time seemed shocking while in hindsight might have been predictable. Blachowicz can spoil the record of the unbeaten upstart in a variety of ways, as long as he does not keep his chin on the proverbial gunnery range hoping to slug it out. If you instead believe that Jan can no longer cook, we present to you a pairing that has grinding upset written all over it. Tybura, now 40, still loves to wrestle and clinch and glom like the best of them. His gas tank has betrayed him on occasion, but his memorable losses all came when his foe blitzed him. Tybura has not tightened that up. Describing him with the term “lumbering” is not entirely the insult in which it may be perceived, because it also means that he does not rush into many situations without thinking, nor is he the type to “jump the gilly.” He knows what he has to do win with his skills, and that has given him the ability to stick around in the Top 10 as the tides flow in and out with contenders. Aleksandar Rakic is practically an unknown quantity now. While initially believed to be a quick-strike finisher with a number of speedy one-hitter quitters on his ledger as he came up. The ceiling presented itself with Volkan Oezdemir and has never abated for the former 205er. Four straight dispiriting losses—only the Jiri Prochazka defeat did he truly display some skills as an elite competitor, but it also exposed some massive flaws as “BJP” put him down for the count. Thankfully for Rakic, he is not facing a veritable tornado of elbows, knees, jumping and flying strikes, lions, tigers and bears, oh my. Instead, he will encounter a target in which he can deploy his effective leg kicks, ones that very nearly debilitated the aforementioned Prochazka before the huge swing in momentum. How Big Will Rakic get when he hits the scale on Friday, and will this be of the variety of a light heavyweight not cutting weight or is he in the “Pat Barry vs. Food” camp? Unless he pulls a Marcos Rogerio de Lima and suddenly bulks up 60 pounds to fill out his frame, he will be the lighter man in the cage. That does not inspire confidence as to his prospects, as Tybura should figure to be the heftier of the two, which can grant a major advantage in smothering grappling exchanges—which is where Tybura lives. The upset might not be pretty in this case, or even in Blachowicz if he employs some wrestling to defuse Stirling, but a win is a win. In this sport, sometimes we have to take what we can get.Dusko Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin lasts under 1.5 rounds (-120) Amidst a sea of unknowns, UFC newcomers, Contender Series callups and other question marks, we approach this last pick involving two known quantities. They may not be known for their in-cage accomplishments as much as their fighting styles and big losses. After all, UFC records of 4-6 for the former and 1-3 for the latter do not inspire confidence or championship aspirations. Nor do we wish to try to flip a coin as to which one of these skidding middleweights—they did both win their last fights by first-round rear-naked choke—so the under is where we settle. Both of these 185ers post six professional defeats, with four of them coming inside the distance. Seventy-five percent of their combined losses occurred during our selected under. Additionally, each athlete celebrates a single decision victory, with that full-length triumph occurring at least eight years ago. Otherwise, smash-‘em-up derbies litter their resumés including their time in the Octagon. Todorovic has ample pressure to prevail as one of the few Serbian combatants on the billing, and hometown fights can go different ways. Think to Derrick Lewis: for the longest time, he was indestructible in his home state of Texas. His first 10 bouts in the Lone Star State all ended with “The Black Beast” getting his hand raised, with only the 10th needing all three rounds. It turned when he picked up greater fame and became placed on marquee for fight cards in the area. The first five years of his time with the promotion, Lewis was sent to Texas twice. From 2020 to 2022, the promotion doubled that figure. There are plenty of reasons as to why an aging heavyweight with chronic back issues suffered against the offenses of Ciryl Gane, Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Spivac. Fighters are human, though, and it is easy to imagine a scenario where Lewis, trying to impress while being the most popular person in the building at that moment, stumbles. It could happen to anyone. Lewis himself spoke up saying he would prefer to compete elsewhere, and the promotion has answered him by throwing him at Utah, Missouri, Tennessee and the White House. If someone like Lewis, whose jovial demeanor could have been impacted by being under the spotlight in front of a home crowd, that could absolutely happen to Todorovic. Does he surge out of his corner like a man possessed? Will he try to fight smart so that his chin does not get touched? On the other side of the coin, is Valentin aiming to bull-rush his adversary and take him out early before the energy builds in support of “Thunder”? This match is a collision course, and one that should international fans what they want—carnage—while not necessarily giving those in the building a good time should Todorovic get clubbed and subbed by the Swiss man known as “Robzilla.” Everyone could use a little extra mayhem in their lives, and this should deliver it for as long as it lasts.