Trump’s Tariffs Are Likely to Stick Around Despite Unpopularity

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Or sign-in if you have an account.7]8djawx]1iqhnro(81i08ow_media_dl_1.png St Louis Fed, Bureau of Labor St(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs are drawing anger from trading partners and voters but the leverage and revenue they offer could make it hard for future presidents to fully give them up.THIS CONTENT IS RESERVED FOR SUBSCRIBERS ONLYSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman, and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.SUBSCRIBE TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESSubscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.Exclusive articles from Barbara Shecter, Joe O'Connor, Gabriel Friedman and others.Daily content from Financial Times, the world's leading global business publication.Unlimited online access to read articles from Financial Post, National Post and 15 news sites across Canada with one account.National Post ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.REGISTER / SIGN IN TO UNLOCK MORE ARTICLESCreate an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one account.Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.Enjoy additional articles per month.Get email updates from your favourite authors.THIS ARTICLE IS FREE TO READ REGISTER TO UNLOCK.Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.Access articles from across Canada with one accountShare your thoughts and join the conversation in the commentsEnjoy additional articles per monthGet email updates from your favourite authorsSign In or Create an AccountA longtime advocate for a more protectionist trade agenda, Trump argues that his policies have unleashed a US economic boom, and when they haven’t, he says the duties are useful sticks in negotiations with trading partners. He continues to threaten more tariffs against allies like Canada, even though polling consistently shows that the tariffs are unpopular with voters, who are already frustrated with stubbornly high inflation. But while criticism mounts globally and domestically, that doesn’t mean a future president would fully roll back Trump’s agenda, experts said, suggesting a Democrat could seek to make changes, to smooth relations with allies and ease the economic impact, without throwing them all out. For example, former President Joe Biden maintained — and in some cases expanded — the tariffs Trump implemented on China during his first term. Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.The next issue of Top Stories will soon be in your inbox.We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again“I do think in general tariffs are going to be more sticky than a lot of people believe,” said Josh Lipsky, vice president and chair of international economics at the Atlantic Council, who noted that the tariffs are part of broader trade deals and provide revenue. “I think the pull of this will be hard to get away from.”The latest tariff action, a 10% or 12.5% duty on imports from most trading partners, took effect Friday. They’re based on allegations by the Trump administration that the targeted countries and economies failed to prevent forced labor in their supply chains, which several have said are baseless. Trading partners see it as unlikely that the forced-labor levies are rolled back any time soon, according to an official from a European Union member country. It’s also doubtful whether there will be a return to the lower duty levels that preceded Trump, as the US disposition toward tariffs doesn’t change much between administrations, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.The Tax Policy Center estimates that tariffs will raise about $1.7 trillion in the next 10 years, with $179 billion raised in 2026. The revenue will decline over time according to the TPC projection, as US buyers will gradually shift away from imports with high duties. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called this the “melting ice cube” theory of tariffs.But tariffs are a Catch-22 when it comes to the deficit. The revenue they generated in 2025 and early 2026 did help to narrow the US budget gap before Trump’s ‘emergency’ tariffs were invalidated by the Supreme Court. But tariffs can also be a drag on economic growth, making it harder to reduce the deficit-to-GDP ratio.The latest effort is also not as lucrative as the sweeping tariffs that were struck down, and which the administration is currently in the process of refunding. A new analysis from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says the current tariffs, including those announced this week, will replace less than 60% of the revenue lost by the ruling.Even when Trump acknowledges they don’t work, he has offered tweaks to his tariffs rather than giving up on them wholesale.This advertisement has not loaded yet.This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.Despite tariffs, the “primary aluminum, which is critical to the US economy and defense industrial base, is still in insufficient supply,” Trump said in a proclamation he signed on Monday. The policy change would halve duties on some aluminum imports in an effort to incentivize more smelting in the US.Heading into the midterm elections, Trump’s tariff agenda has been a major Democratic talking point as voters express anger over the cost of living. A YouGov survey of almost 9,700 US adults this week found 72% believed the president’s levies increased the prices they paid for goods.Republicans are bracing for losses in the November midterm elections, given voter frustration over the economy and Trump’s leadership. The GOP is defending their majorities in Congress, with the narrowly divided House of Representatives particularly vulnerable. The cost of living remains a key frustration for Americans. While data out earlier this month showed consumer prices fell amid lower gasoline prices in June, the cost of the fuel has headed back up since then and inflation remains elevated.That economic focus is likely to continue in the 2028 presidential primary. Given that, a future Democratic president will likely face pressure to make changes to the tariffs, said Matt Bennett, co-founder of the moderate Democratic think tank Third Way. “Whoever will become president will have spent two years arguing that Trump has raised prices intentionally and that’s going to be pretty hard to work back,” he said, noting that there will be pressure to “lift a tariff and bring down prices.”Trump is already facing legal pushback at home. Small businesses filed a pair of lawsuits in the US Court of International Trade on Friday, accusing the president and US officials of unlawfully using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to try to replace the earlier rounds of tariffs.Generally, Section 301 tariffs “are on stronger legal ground,” despite legal challenge, trade historian and Dartmouth economics professor Douglas Irwin told Bloomberg TV. “It’s not clear that the courts will overturn them, so these tariffs are probably here to stay for some time.”Wendy Cutler, senior vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute said a new president who wanted to work with foreign allies may be “more sympathetic to try to find exit ramps with our allies and partners.” But she noted the challenge is that “we’re getting used to that revenue.”—With assistance from Daniel Flatley, Zoe Tillman and Michael Shepard.Notice for the Postmedia NetworkThis website uses cookies to personalize your content (including ads), and allows us to analyze our traffic. 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