Things fall apart — decay and scandal push SA’s democracy to the brink

Fintan O’ Toole proposes a “Yeats test”. “The more quotable Yeats seems to commentators and politicians, the worse things are.” Some may say The Second Coming, written in 1919, is quoted far too often, its ending as sinister as its reference to the chaos of “the widening gyre” and a “falcon who cannot hear the falconer…”Former President Mbeki was so fond of quoting Yeats that the words became almost synonymous with his presidency. Turning and turning in the widening gyreThe falcon cannot hear the falconer;Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhereThe ceremony of innocence is drowned;The best lack all conviction, while the worstAre full of passionate intensity.The world, ever-hotter, ever-more riven with hate and division, is the backdrop to our many often self-inflicted South African wounds. South Africa is also not isolated in experiencing a distinct political moment and threats to the rule of law even as our precarity is sui generis. In the US, we have seen the rolling back of long-held rights by a Supreme Court which has become more political mouthpiece than legal guardian, alongside a passive Congress enabling an imperial presidency. But there does seem to be an (increasingly) widening gyre in South Africa which causes despair and fear in almost equal measure. We are familiar with our country’s ills. The ANC’s degradation has been tracked assiduously by a country watching it fall apart and succumb to the most egregious forms of corruption. A by-product of corruption and State Capture has been the degradation of our institutions. This is a country in which impunity is commonplace. Such impunity has many forms and comes in ways both small and large; ubiquitous “blue light brigades” of powerful politicians dangerously pushing ordinary citizens off the roads (the Deputy President being one of the main culprits) are almost symbolic of the entitlement culture politicians thrive upon here. Yet, there is always more. Daily horrorsOurs is a deeply uncaring state. How else do we describe the daily horrors the poor and marginalised have to endure, whether standing in endless queues while trying to extract something administrative from the state, or facing the indignity of a lack of sanitation while rubbish piles up around informal settlements, let alone experiencing the indignity of a lack of decent work. The 2014 death of five-year-old Michael Komape, who fell into a pit latrine at school and drowned, and the Life Esidimeni tragedy, which saw more than 100 people die after the Gauteng Health Department moved them from existing care facilities to others run by NGOs, are brutal examples of the neglect of the state.Our communities are riven with xenophobic violence, indicative of a society that has lost its moorings. Cities and towns fall apart when governance fails. Johannesburg is a spectacular example, but there are many, many others. Degradation is the ugly spawn of State Capture. Despite these consequences of State Capture, which we have become almost inured to, it is the ongoing Madlanga Commission of Inquiry into Criminality, Political Interference, and Corruption in the Criminal Justice System — the deadline for the final report is mid-November — that has captured the attention of South Africans perhaps even more than the interminable Zondo Commission. The Madlanga Commission was set up after KwaZulu-Natal police Commissioner Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi’s extraordinary July 2025 press conference when, dressed in military fatigues (we would do well to remember this), he made a series of allegations that criminal cartels had infiltrated law enforcement, judicial and political arenas. How else to deal with the slew of allegations, even as our country could do well without another commission report gathering dust somewhere? Evidence is being tested, and a raft of serious allegations have been made against senior police and other law enforcement officials. The rot runs deepOpen democracy means the commission proceedings are beamed into homes and on screens in public spaces daily as we are subjected to evidence of our law enforcement agencies in complete crisis. The rot clearly runs very deep and already several arrests have been made. None of this augurs well for the confidence South Africans should be able to place in institutions that are meant to uphold the rule of law. It is hard to know how we will ever truly be able to fix all this. The National Prosecuting Authority’s failures have provided succour to every criminal who believes they can escape the full weight of the law.It is unsurprising then that trust in institutions is at an all-time low. Recent Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) data tells us: “Public satisfaction with South African democracy has experienced a significant decline, with citizens who believe it works dropping from 63% in 2004 to 17% by 2025.” The HSRC notes a “systemic ‘trust deficit’ across South Africa’s political and state institutions, highlighting a significant decline in public confidence”. Trust in the police is at 22%, the lowest since 1998. These views should be cause for alarm, especially as the HSRC finds a correlation between trust levels and voter behaviour. So the past two weeks, which saw former Investigative Directorate against Corruption (Idac) head, advocate Andrea Johnson, step down, can only be seen as another severe blow to any attempts to restore public confidence in the rule of law.Johnson faces serious allegations regarding the conduct of Idac and its personnel. While it is hard to know where the truth lies amid the many allegations and murky characters who have come to the fore during the life of this commission, the public would be forgiven for tarring everyone with the same brush to the cries of “Are they not all corrupt?”Phala PhalaMeanwhile, President Cyril Ramaphosa has been in court staving off the parliamentary impeachment process arising out of the Phala Phala matter; a curious one that involves the theft of foreign currency from the President’s Limpopo game farm. All this was revealed in 2022 by former head of State Security, Arthur Fraser. Incidentally, Fraser has also started a new political movement called Vuka Azania, alongside Alan Boesak, another ethically questionable former politician now returning from the wilderness. Ramaphosa was well within his rights to interdict the parliamentary impeachment proceedings, which were ill-advised, given that the Ngcobo Report, on which the Parliamentary committee’s work was based, is the subject of review proceedings. But, again, wherever the truth of the matter lies, Ramaphosa governs our Government of National Unity, with a cloud hanging over his head. Or perhaps even a sword of Damocles, given the ANC’s internal factional battles. Furthermore, the allegations do nothing to increase citizens’ trust in the President and his ability to govern while distracted by serious allegations regarding his personal probity. And so, all around us we feel the Yeatsian widening gyre, our ceremony of innocence long ago drowned. There is a sense too as local government elections loom, that worse things might manifest themselves. The HSRC data also show “an increased willingness to embrace non-democratic, ‘strongman’ alternatives”. Or, put another way, populist alternatives that allow xenophobia (amongst other things) to fester. Is there any wonder Ramaphosa does not rid himself of the corrupt Gayton McKenzie from his Cabinet? Might it be far worse having him outside the tent during the local government election campaign later this year? The arts, culture and sport ministry has often been the portfolio for rogue politicians. (That, too, says something about what kind of society we are building: one mostly devoid of intellectual engagement and the ability to see the world beyond the insular confines of political convenience.)Often it was asked whether Mbeki meant the country’s centre or the ANC’s when he quoted The Second Coming. The ANC’s centre has not held — that much we know. And Yeats’ words are more apposite than ever, perhaps more so: And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born? DM