The Trump realignment after Trump

LEVITTOWN, Pennsylvania — Jim, the 58-year-old man at Sparky’s, offers me a menthol. It’s the first cigarette I’ve been offered at a bar, indoors, in at least 15 years. Sparky’s World Famous Bar is a smoke-friendly establishment because it doesn’t sell food.You can still get food at Sparky’s — you just can’t buy food. There’s a popcorn machine in the corner, and the bartender brings me fresh batches every 30 minutes or so. On the high-tops in another corner sit about seven slices of pumpkin pie and two cans of whipped cream, the leftovers from an anniversary celebration a local motorcycle club just held here.I’m in Levittown not to sample the wares at Sparky’s, but to study one of the most important battlegrounds in the 2026 elections — and probably 2028, too. Two of the most vulnerable Republicans in the House are just a bit north of here, also along the New Jersey border: Ryan Mackenzie, defending his Allentown-based 7th District, and Rob Bresnahan, in the Scranton-based 8th. Finally, all political watchers should keep an eye here, on Bucks County, where 1st District incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick ought to be safe but could get washed away if a blue wave grows into a tsunami.Meanwhile, this portion of the state also offers Democrats three pickup opportunities in state Senate races — enough to take a majority of that chamber.In other words, if Democrats take the U.S. House and gain a governing trifecta in Pennsylvania, the eastern part of Pennsylvania may be the reason. And this ought to give Republicans a lot of reasons to worry about the future of their party, post-Trump.Specifically, the realignment over the last 30 years, which was accelerated by President Donald Trump, may result in a structural advantage for Democrats in 2026, 2028, and beyond.Bucks County sits just north of Philadelphia. Lower Bucks is the blue-collar part of the county. Back in the day, residents of Levittown worked at the industrial plants in Northeast Philly or at the old U.S. Steel mill in neighboring Fairless Hills.When Trump won Bucks County in 2024, it was because he picked up voters down in Lower Bucks.In the 2012 presidential election, Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by 20 points in Levittown. Trump cut that loss to 10 points in both 2016 and 2020. Then, in 2024, Trump effectively tied then-Vice President Kamala Harris in Levittown, getting 48.5%. That’s a nearly 20-point swing toward Republicans in this blue-collar, working-class area in Lower Bucks.But that swing in Lower Bucks was mostly offset by the opposite swing in Middle Bucks.Newtown, Pennsylvania, looks nothing like Bristol, the part of Levittown where Sparky’s operates. Instead of Miller Lites, video slots, and Marlboro Menthols, the clientele at the Capital Grille in Newtown partake of old-fashioneds, golf stories, and filet mignon sliders. The median home value in Newtown is double that in Bristol.Multiple Porsches park on Newtown’s State Street — one in front of the Starbucks and another near the cozy local cafe, which is near two locally owned clothing boutiques.Romney won Newtown (combining the township and borough) in 2012 by 128 votes. Harris beat Trump here in 2024 by more than 1,800 votes.Bucks is a microcosm of the national realignment that started before Trump: working-class voters are going from the Democratic to the Republican side, and upper-middle-class suburban voters are swinging the other way.Trump massively accelerated this shift. “I think he actually wants to make the country better,” Jim tells me between drags of his menthol. “I know he’s an asshole, but you look at what the Democrats are doing…”Jim’s father was a steamfitter. Jim used to operate a forklift. He grew up in Levittown. His father used to tell him that “Democrats were the party of the little guy,” Jim says, but it doesn’t look that way to Jim. It never has. Jim isn’t a former Democrat. He was a politically disengaged working-class white man for most of his adulthood — the “Missing White Voter,” to whom pollster Sean Trende attributed Romney’s 2012 loss.I ask Jim if he votes. “Since Trump, yes.” Before Trump? “Nope.”Up in Newtown, Jody, a middle-aged, college-educated mother, is meeting with a friend for lunch or a midday walk on a Tuesday. She has noted the shift: “Levittown is surprisingly becoming more Republican, although it’s more blue-collar. Meanwhile, the more affluent parts up here are becoming more Democrats.”Why is this happening? “I think some people were just looking for something to believe in, whether or not it’s true,” Jody says.Rob, an old-school liberal in his 70s who used to work in Newtown, describes the realignment differently. “This whole Democratic Party has changed so much that at this point I don’t even know where I am anymore,” Rob tells me from a bench on State Street.“At some point, the Democratic Party got its money base from Wall Street, and it just went that way.… It used to be a middle-class party and a lower-class party. It just isn’t anymore because the money comes from Wall Street and the influence comes from Hollywood. And Joe Blow, you know, Joe the Plumber just isn’t in there anymore.”Joe Blow is drinking at Sparky’s and voting for Trump.This trade-off — Newtown for Levittown — worked out for the Republicans in 2024 and, to a lesser extent, in 2016. But in the long run, it’s a bad deal.I ask Jim about the elections next month. He has no idea who’s running or for what offices. Despite the ubiquitous TV ads and road signs, Jim certainly can’t name his congressman, Fitzpatrick, who first came into office with Trump in 2016. He can’t even name his governor, Democrat Josh Shapiro. Any Republicans he would vote for in 2028? Jim can’t name any.Trump handed Democrats the high-frequency, highly educated voters and won over the low-frequency voters.Consider this down-ticket math: In Newtown, the total number of votes for Congress dropped by 11% from 2016 to 2018. In Levittown, it dropped by 17%. In Bristol Township, Levittown’s most working-class municipality, the drop-off was 21%.That’s why Fitzpatrick might lose this year: voters like Jim aren’t going to show up.TIMOTHY P. CARNEY: PENNSYLVANIA’S VICE ECONOMYBut the Republicans’ problems go beyond the midterm elections. The problem isn’t simply that Jim and the millions of other formerly “Missing White Voters” are low-frequency voters. The bigger problem is that they’re not really Republicans. They aren’t socially conservative, churchgoing pro-lifers. They aren’t fiscal hawks or libertarians.Jim and his fellow patrons at Sparky’s, his fellow sons of steamfitters, and his fellow forklift operators are not Republicans — they are Trump voters. And Trump won’t be on the ballot ever again. So Jim might never vote ever again.