The deadly weakness Putin is exploiting to punish Ukraine

Around the world, countries are reeling from the impact of the US and Israel’s war with Iran. In the Middle East, thousands have been killed. In the US and Europe, spiralling fuel prices have pushed families already struggling with the cost of living into even more dire straits. But there is another, hidden consequence being felt in Ukraine. The high rate of interceptor missiles needed to shoot down missile attacks in the Iran war has left stocks running dry globally. In Ukraine, this is being exploited by Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which has surged its attacks on Ukrainian cities at a time when they are particularly vulnerable to aerial assaults. Shorts Global stockpiles of interceptor missiles which can defend against air attacks, like the much-sought-after US-supplied Patriot PAC-3, have declined rapidly since the onset of the US-Israeli war with Iran. And Russia has been quick to exploit Ukraine’s shortage, ramping up missile attacks on cities, with at least seven attacks on Kyiv alone in July. Last week, Russia launched one of its biggest ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv since the outbreak of the war, killing at least six people on 19 July. The city was hit by around 40 missiles of various types, including Iskander-M and hypersonic Zircon missiles, Ukrainian officials said. “In the last two weeks it’s really come to a head. Here in Kyiv, there just haven’t been the Patriots to respond,” said Matthew Arnold, the director of LSE Ideas’ Democratic Resilience in a New Age of War Programme. “Ukraine has effectively run out of Patriots missiles” while Russia is “maximising the ballistics because they know Ukraine is in a miserable spot right now”. Cities like Odesa are also being heavily targeted, Arnold said, and people are aware that Ukraine is struggling to defend itself against ballistic missile strikes. “It depresses morale quite heavily,” he added. Russia continues to shell residential areas of cities as Ukraine’s air defences struggle to push back (Photo: Andriy Zhyhaylo/Oboz.ua/Global Images Ukraine via Getty ) Ukrainians also fear that Russia’s use of ballistic missiles will become especially problematic this winter, “when Russia tries to obliterate the civilian infrastructure around electricity and heating”, Arnold said, making the cold winters unbearable for many. In recent months, Ukraine has launched a wave of attacks on Russia itself, killing residents and causing shortages of fuel. This gives greater incentive for Russia to hit Ukraine hard, according to Arnold, who describes Russia’s increasing use of ballistic missiles against Ukrainian cities as “a direct response to Ukraine’s more effective use of long and mid-range drone strikes, especially targeting fuel supplies”. Following last week’s attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky once again requested air defence missiles from the country’s allies. “Protection against ballistic missiles is our constant and top priority right now,” he wrote on X, adding: “Interceptors are needed every day.” Earlier this month, Ukrainian air defence commanders told The New York Times that Ukrainian forces had adapted their tactics to try to preserve interceptor missiles, switching units to manual mode so they fire one missile at a time, rather than the standard two or three. US allies in the Gulf, even with their advanced air defence systems, are also feeling the shortages, and are finding themselves more vulnerable to Iranian drones and missiles. As it scrambles to fill the gaps left by interceptor shortages, Ukraine is looking for alternatives. One is using European anti-ballistic systems, with Ukraine announcing last week that it would be the first country to receive two of the next-generation Franco-Italian SAMP/T NG air defence systems. But the missiles will not be delivered until October, so aren’t an immediate fix. At the beginning of July, Trump granted Ukraine a license to produce its own Patriot missiles, meaning that the country would rely far less on the over-committed US stockpile in the future. However, details of the license are not yet public and production could take months or years. Donald Trump has granted Ukraine a license to produce its own Patriot missiles, which could greatly help its defences (Photo: Sean Murphy/AP) Ukraine is also considering producing its own interceptor missiles. Ukrainian company Fire Point is aiming to roll out its own anti-ballistic system, though Zelensky has said it could take 12 months to get the hoped-for domestic system up and running. Keir Giles, an associate fellow at the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, told The i Paper that, with Russia upping its attacks on Ukrainian cities, the country needs more immediate support from its allies. “The process of Ukraine establishing its own production of interceptor missiles takes considerably longer than being provided with ready-made interceptor missiles to fire right now,” he said. “It looked as though it was a positive development, but Ukrainians are saying, ‘It’s good, but not as good as immediate direct support now’, and they’re entirely correct.” The assumption that the US would be able to supply air defences meant that Europe had not felt the urgency to develop its own weapons systems, Giles said. The current situation is “exposing that capability gap”, he said. However, Giles said that the vulnerabilities were unlikely to remain long-term –- in part because Russia could run out of the missiles to attack, while Ukraine develops its ability to hit Russia at home. “The extent to which Russia has ramped up its production of these particular types of missile is also an ongoing process and we need to look at the longer-term trends,” he said. “An element of those long-term trends is Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russia, which, if anything, is developing faster.” “It’s a constantly evolving situation, so Russia is enjoying an advantage at the moment thanks to the [interceptor shortage], but of course that doesn’t mean that this is going to be a permanent situation,” he added.