The blind spot that cost Stuart Nash

Analysis: New Zealand First is defying the odds of a minor governing party and riding a polling high, which made it all the more necessary to cauterise the wound that was Stuart Nash this week.There are four things leader Winston Peters has no time for in politics and Nash was ticking all of them at the point the party told him it was time to go on Wednesday night.Peters believes in second chances not being squandered, has no room for distractions he hasn't orchestrated himself, and has no time for negative media headlines out of tune with the party narrative, but more than all of that, he has zero patience for anyone in the party giving his political opponents an easy win.There have been many comparisons drawn between Nash's foot-in-mouth syndrome in recent months and that of Peters' deputy leader Shane Jones, who creates controversial headlines on an almost weekly basis.But there is no apples with apples comparison between Nash and Jones, at least not in Peters' mind.For a start Jones is a senior Cabinet minister and Nash was a candidate vying to be in Parliament again.Jones is loyal to Peters, and he always has been.Even when he's in troubled waters he has managed to master the exact moment to stop talking and refer any comment to his leader. He also knows when he's gone too far for Peters' liking and needs to change the record.The leash Jones has for his outbursts is quite long given he and Peters are very in tune with each other when it comes to their anti-immigrant, nationalistic, and often polarising attacks.Nash was never afforded that free rein and would have needed to spend much more time at Peters' side before earning it - a chance he'll now never have.Where Nash's blunders differ from Jones is they weren't intentional, nor were they on-topic.New Zealand First attracts a significant women vote - something its coalition partner National has been failing miserably at in recent elections.It's a vote it can't afford to lose in a tight election where New Zealand First is increasingly looking like it will call many more of the shots in any potential coalition post-election.It's also a party that talks ad nauseam about family values.Nash's off-script remarks trashing a young woman for taking time away from work to look after her newborn son, and suggesting she wasn't fit for Parliament as a result of it, couldn't have been further away from the messaging Peters has been playing on repeat for the past three decades.If anything Peters, a privately proud grandfather, would have supported National MP Katie Nimon taking more than the six months she had away from Parliament with her baby, such is the importance he puts on the first year of a child's life.It speaks to how much Nash was running his own race in his bid to return to Parliament that he hadn't cottoned on to how Peters operates.Despite Nash and Jones being mates there certainly won't be any great disappointment oozing from Jones over how this week played out for the party's now former Napier candidate.Jones would have seen Nash as a threat to the oxygen he absorbs in Parliament with his colourful - and at times offensive language - and bombastic behaviour, but he also would have been the first to put bets on Nash not making the party's 2027 class photo.More than any other MP in the caucus he's very tapped into the party executive and supporters (a decent chunk of whom are women), and would have seen Nash's one-gaffe-too-many coming from a mile away.In the RNZ-Reid Research poll last week New Zealand First hit 11.5 percentage points, that would give them 15 MPs in Parliament if that result was replicated on election day.Peters is on a mission to protect that vote and not see it bleed away in the coming months.The ACT party has already been there done that and bought the tee-shirt at the 2023 election when its regular polling at 12 percent or higher started dropping below 10, just six weeks out from the election, and finished on 8.64 points by 14 October.New Zealand First spent Wednesday afternoon, after Nash's derogatory comments towards Nimon surfaced, closely watching media reporting, social media feedback, and what its political opponents were doing.Nash had become a huge distraction by that point and every media outlet in the country was leading the news with his comments and the backlash against them.National very quickly claimed the high-road successfully driving its pro-working Mums' narrative, and social media was flooded with posts in support of Nimon outraged that comments like Nash's could even exist in 2026.Giving New Zealand First's opponents a win was the final nail in the coffin of Nash's attempted political return.