No recruiter, no clear ideology: South-east Asia’s changing youth extremism threat

JAKARTA/MANILA/KUALA LUMPUR/BANGKOK – A group of teenagers in Indonesia watched school shootings online, sought out images of graphic violence and followed notorious mass killers on the internet. Then some began planning attacks of their own.In October 2025, Indonesia’s counter-terrorism unit Densus 88 linked 70 young people across 18 provinces to such networks, with 20 preparing attacks – mainly on schools – using replica firearms, knives and bows.Some detailed plans to blow up classrooms, attack teachers, or sabotage cameras, while one filmed a pipe-bomb tutorial. Yet, they lacked clear political or religious ties, with their attraction to violence preceding any ideology.The cases highlight a growing challenge across South-east Asia: how to identify and intervene when young people are moving towards violence, when they may have no terrorist recruiter, organisational affiliation or even a coherent ideology.Singapore’s latest terrorism threat assessment by its Internal Security Department (ISD), released on Sept 10, warned of an increasingly diverse extremist landscape. Young people were exposed to influences ranging from ISIS propaganda to far-right extremism, mass-shooter culture and nihilistic violent extremism (NVE), the report said.The challenge is increasingly regional. Recent cases in South-east Asia have revealed young people encountering overlapping extremist influences and pathways to violence online. The recent violence in Thailand has also highlighted the difficulty of distinguishing extremism from other troubling youth behaviour.Experts said these pathways are testing counter-terrorism systems built to tackle ideological radicalisation and groups such as Jemaah Islamiyah and ISIS, while putting parents, schools and counsellors on the front line of spotting warning signs.Such threats must be taken seriously, as they have the potential to cause incidents that can kill people and damage property, they warned.Alif Satria, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), highlighted the influence of TCC, or True Crime Community. It refers to an online sub-culture centred on real-life violent crimes and their perpetrators.“The fact that these young people who are influenced by TCC and mass-shooter culture can be radicalised enough to the point of being willing to commit violence definitely means that we should not take this threat lightly,” said Alif.When violence comes before ideologyFor decades, violent extremism in Indonesia and much of the region was closely associated with militant Islamist organisations, giving the authorities familiar markers such as ideology, recruiters and organisational ties.But newer cases do not always follow that pattern. A September report by RSIS’ Counter-Terrorist Trends and Analyses journal found that some Indonesian youth children linked to TCC had no clear political or religious agenda.Instead, investigators found young people moving between content involving school shootings, serial killers and graphic violence, with some discussing or expressing admiration for notorious mass attackers.A’an Suryana, a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, said the pathways to such violence could vary widely, from misguided religious teachings and household grievances to violent online sub-cultures. Gaps in supervision at home and in schools could leave vulnerable children harder to spot, he said.Singapore’s experience shows how these influences can also converge. A 14-year-old detained under the Internal Security Act (ISA) in June had plotted a mass stabbing attack at his secondary school.He supported ISIS, but also subscribed to seemingly opposing aspects of far-right extremism. Additionally, he idolised mass shooters, including white supremacist killer Brenton Tarrant and the perpetrators of the 1999 Columbine high school attack in the US.The teenager, who had encountered Roblox video games recreating school shootings before seeking more information about the attacks, eventually drafted a 21-page manifesto detailing plans to stab non-Muslim teachers and students at his school.His case came amid a sharp increase in youth radicalisation cases in Singapore. Six of eight new ISA cases in the past year involved those aged 20 or younger, while the number of youth cases almost quadrupled from four between 2017 and 2021 to 15 since 2022. Of the 23 youth dealt with under the ISA since 2015, 12 had planned attacks in Singapore.Elsewhere, the picture is similarly varied. Philippine police’s Anti-Cybercrime Group police told senators in August that they had handled 74 cases of nihilistic violent extremism – where extreme violence is pursued without a clear political or religious ideology – and rescued 42 minors, 30 of them aged 15 or younger.Filipino cybersecurity expert Angel Redoble told the hearing that vulnerable children could be drawn in on ordinary platforms such as games before being moved into private servers or encrypted messaging apps.“The algorithm learns what each user responds to and serves them progressively more of it,” he said. “It has become a weapon.”In Malaysia, newer online pathways have surfaced alongside the more familiar threat from ISIS.Six males aged 16 to 21, including three minors, were arrested in February 2026 over alleged ISIS-linked activities.Officials said several had encountered violent content through games before moving onto private messaging apps. Authorities have not disclosed how many teenagers have been detained in Malaysia over alleged extremism or terrorism-related activities, but officials said recurring vulnerabilities among young people in such cases included bullying, social isolation and troubled family backgrounds.Drawing the line on extremismAs the lines between ideological extremism, violent online subcultures and personal grievances become less clear, authorities across the region face the same question: when does troubling behaviour become a security threat requiring intervention?Malaysian criminologist Haezreena Begum Abdul Hamid from Universiti Malaya said getting that distinction right is crucial.“If we get the diagnosis wrong, we get the response wrong. And once we start calling every troubling act terrorism, we risk both over-securitising young people and failing to understand what is actually driving the violence,” she said.Alif said authorities may need to look beyond ideology for warning signs, including growing isolation, deeper engagement with violent material and a shift from consuming such content to actively participating in violent online communities.But such signs do not necessarily point to extremism. Criminologist Trynh Phoraksa of Mahidol University in Thailand said grievances, social isolation and exposure to extremist narratives could interact differently for each individual.“None of these factors alone means that somebody will become a terrorist,” he said.Thailand most recently dealt with this on Aug 7, when a 14-year-old student shot dead his grandparents at home before opening fire at Debsirin Nonthaburi School outside Bangkok, killing five others before taking his own life.Investigators found that he had viewed violent online material and developed an interest in guns, while a Nazi flag was found at his home.But police also uncovered family problems, academic pressure and conflicts with friends. They found no evidence linking the Nazi imagery to the shooting or the teenager to an extremist group.Experts said this case highlights how difficult it can be to distinguish genuine security threats from other troubling behaviour, as many warning signs can appear in young people who are not extremists.Moving the fight upstreamThe shift also creates an institutional problem – cases that do not clearly meet the threshold for terrorism can fall between counter-terrorism agencies, schools, child-protection services and mental-health professionals.This is pushing prevention further upstream, towards the parents, teachers, counsellors and friends who are often best placed to spot changes in a young person’s behaviour before they escalate.But identifying someone earlier is only part of the challenge, and observers said authorities also need to rethink how to intervene when the young person may not hold a coherent extremist ideology in the first place.Much of Indonesia’s state-led deradicalisation programme focuses on changing an individual’s ideology, including through former terrorist ideologues and religious counselling. But many of the newer cases involve young people without strong ideological commitments, Alif said.“So, we need to rethink what CVE looks like for individuals drawn into violent online communities,” he added.Across the region, authorities are experimenting with different ways to respond. In Malaysia, the six youths arrested in February are undergoing a programme combining religious guidance with critical-thinking and ethics training aimed at reintegrating them into society.There is also greater emphasis on detecting problems before they reach that dangerous stage. In Indonesia, Densus 88 worked with education authorities in Cirebon in May 2026 to train 142 guidance and counselling teachers, known as Guru BK, to protect junior-high students against online radicalism and to look out for behavioural red flags.But ISEAS–Yusof Ishak’s A’an said such efforts were not yet widespread, with gaps remaining in supervision by schools and parents.Singapore’s experience suggests those closest to young people can play a critical role. ISD said the majority of young people it investigated had displayed signs of radicalisation to people around them, particularly family and friends, before coming to the authorities’ attention.Someone at the school of the 14-year-old detained in June alerted the authorities after noticing his interest in violent videos, while friends of a 19-year-old tried to dissuade him from his extremist beliefs before informing ISD.Philippine experts have similarly called for parents to better understand their children’s online lives, advised teachers to recognise signs of isolation or distress, and emphasised the need for stronger school counselling services.“After parents, (schools) are the next eyes on the children every day,” the country’s Senator Risa Hontiveros told ST.The challenge, experts stressed, is to widen this safety net without making ordinary teenage behaviour a reason for suspicion.Thomas Koruth Samuel, an expert on preventing violent extremism for the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said prevention should also focus on building young people’s digital literacy and critical thinking. This can create what he described as “mental firewalls” against extremist messaging.Young people should be treated as partners in prevention rather than simply as potential security threats, he said.Alif said the emergence of violent online communities would require South-east Asian countries to adapt their approaches, but the region has decades of experience to draw on.“South-east Asian states are not necessarily starting from scratch,” he said. “The region has three decades of experience developing and implementing CVE responses to jihadist terrorism.”While existing approaches could not simply be transferred wholesale, he added, lessons could be adapted, “particularly the importance of building alternative social ties and providing young people with sources of belonging and purpose outside extremist milieus”.The aim, he said, should include helping vulnerable young people build new social ties that give them “a sense of belonging, purpose, and self-worth beyond that of their violent milieus”.