Negeri Sembilan votes in state election seen as key test of Anwar’s path to a second term

SEREMBAN - Negeri Sembilan’s state election opened on Aug 1 in a battle that could hint at Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s chances at a second term after Malaysia’s general election due by February 2028.Some 401 polling centres opened at 8am across the central state where close to 900,000 eligible voters will pick assemblymen in 36 constituencies.The election is largely a battle between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and the joint forces of Barisan Nasional (BN) and opposition alliance Perikatan Nasional (PN). The latter two deepened their so-called Malay unity pact after an overwhelmingly successful debut at the July 11 vote in Johor that helped BN claim a whopping 48 of 56 seats in the southern state.On July 29, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) president Hadi Awang directed party members to vote and campaign for BN candidates in BN-contested seats. PAS is the largest party within PN. Under the pact, BN is contesting 25 seats, with PN running in the other 11.Yet, at the federal level, PH and BN remain partners of the unity government, an arrangement that has been in place since the 2022 general election.At a rally on the eve of polling day, BN chairman Zahid Hamidi said their rivalry at the Negri Sembilan state polls would not undermine the unity government at the federal level, adding that BN was commited to supporting Anwar until the end of his term.“In safeguarding the national interest, we must continue working together to strengthen the unity government,” he said.Royal crisis and racial politicsIn the lead-up to polling day, the campaign became increasingly defined by competing narratives over race and Malay political primacy amid a bitter feud over the state’s centuries-old royal institution.On July 31, state ruler Muhriz Munawir called a meeting of the state’s highest customary authority to discuss removing the Undang of Jelebu, Maarof Mat Rashad. The move would strengthen his position to appoint the next menteri besar, following the installation of two chieftains loyal to him the month before.However, the dispute deepened after the territory’s customary leaders challenged the legality of the meeting.Maarof did not attend and along with other plaintiffs, filed a letter with the Seremban High Court arguing that any decisions that might be made at the meeting would be invalid, his lawyer Azam Aziz told The Straits Times.Azam said Maarof stayed away because attending could have breached a court injunction issued on June 5, potentially putting him in contempt of court. The injunction bars Maarof from being involved in any meeting with the customary authority.BN has used the royal succession dispute to criticise the PH-led state government, arguing that it failed to manage the situation effectively, turning Adat Perpatih, the state’s centuries-old customary law, and the palace crisis into a political weapon in this election.On July 30, Negri Sembilan’s caretaker menteri besar Aminuddin Harun posted a video on his social media declaring that he was “a Malay Muslim”, underscoring how identity politics had come to dominate the campaign’s closing days.In the video, PH candidates took turns to say they were either Malay Muslims or had Malay friends. The video also highlighted investment initiatives, and reaffirmed PH’s commitment to upholding the Adat Perpatih, the state’s centuries-old customary law.Meanwhile, on July 31, Zahid made a final push for Indian votes at a rally in Bahau, some 70km from the state capital of Seremban, urging them to back candidates from BN and PN.This came two days after Anwar joined the campaign trail to shore up support among Indian voters by publicly apologising for describing temples built on disputed land as “kuil haram”, or illegal temples. Indian voters make up more than one-fifth of the electorate in 11 of the state’s wards.Amid the deepening BN-PN pact, there has also been a rise in racial rhetoric, with the likes of PAS election director and Kedah chief minister Sanusi Md Nor’s “Malays only have Tanah Melayu (Malaya), Chinese have China, Indians have India” refrain becoming one of the hottest talking points during the campaign.UMNO secretary-general Asyraf Dusuki’s warning that the Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party’s (DAP) secretary-general Anthony Loke would take over in the event that Aminuddin loses but PH retains Negeri Sembilan has also been a flashpoint, with critics accusing the former of racial scaremongering.In response, Anwar’s Cabinet released on July 29 the much-delayed report by a Royal Commission of Inquiry into the mismanagement of Muslim pilgrimage fund Tabung Haji in the final years of UMNO’s six decades of uninterrupted rule before it was defeated at the 2018 general election.Key results watchpointsOnce polling closes at 6pm, the early counts will give a sense of how voters are leaning.Think-tank Ilham Centre has predicted that BN-PN will win the election, securing 22 of the 36 seats in the state assembly, giving them the simple majority needed to form the state government.It said PH is likely to win nine seats. If BN-PN manage to claim 19 or more seats together, meaning that UMNO reclaims the state it first lost in 2018, then it will push the two coalitions closer towards establishing a pact for the general election.Some predictions even have BN claiming a simple majority on its own, and with PN, taking a two-thirds supermajority of 24 or more in the 36-strong legislature.Taylor’s University adjunct professor Ong Kian Ming believes PH is likely to win 9 seats while BN-PN could secure 17. He added that six of the remaining 10 seats are Malay majority and would help the BN-PN alliance get close to the two-thirds mark, he added.While BN was always expected to retain Johor, UMNO’s birthplace, retaking Negeri Sembilan would be a clear sign that this Malay unity alliance could go on to unseat PH as the top coalition in the country.The 2022 national vote saw PH win 82 seats, PN 74 and BN just 30 in what was the latter’s worst ever electoral performance.Sign up for our weekly Asian Insider Malaysia Edition newsletter to make sense of the big stories in Malaysia.