MIT: Building renewables in the wrong places could raise blackout risks by 2050

MIT researchers have developed a new framework that could help energy planners decide where to build renewable energy projects as climate change puts growing pressure on power grids. The study combines fine-scale meteorology with detailed simulations of energy infrastructure. Researchers found that where new energy projects are built could significantly affect whether future power systems can meet demand reliably. The team applied the framework to decarbonized energy systems in New England and Texas. Their analysis found that systems designed around historic climate conditions could experience up to a fivefold increase in energy shortfalls by 2050. By incorporating future climate conditions into energy planning, however, the researchers found that both regions could improve grid resilience at little or no additional cost. “As we mitigate climate change with renewables, we can also adapt to climate change by using future weather projections in our power system planning, and the extra costs of that adaptation are, at least in this study, not much,” said senior author Michael Howland, an MIT professor. Climate change adds new risks to power grids Electricity systems are already changing rapidly as demand rises from trends such as artificial intelligence and transportation electrification, while falling costs drive greater adoption of wind and solar power. But renewable generation and electricity demand are both affected by weather, creating new challenges as climate conditions change. “This study explores the joint, simultaneous impacts on multiple components of the energy system, similar to compound events studied in climate science,” Howland explained. “An extreme weather event can impact wind and solar generation and electricity demand all at the same time. Our hypothesis is that’s likely to be the biggest impact we’ll see from climate change on energy systems,” he added. The study found that climate change could increase energy failures by as much as 500% by 2050 if future climate conditions are not considered when siting and designing energy infrastructure. Where wind and solar are built matters The researchers found that locations best suited for renewable projects under future climate conditions can differ meaningfully from those identified using historic weather data. “We are telling people where you put your wind and solar matters a lot for your ability to deliver energy when you need it,” Qiu explained. “We need to think more about the when and where of adding renewables rather than only focusing on adding overall capacity,” he added. In New England, climate-related disruptions increased the need for solar capacity and transmission lines close to major demand centers. In Texas, risks were primarily driven by transmission constraints. Climate-informed designs prioritized wind farms in West Texas to better align renewable generation with future demand patterns. The current framework relies on expensive, high-resolution models, making it impractical for grid operators to use routinely today. The researchers hope to develop faster models that could make climate-informed planning easier to apply. “This study shows the opportunity and the need,” Howland says. “There are risks to not adapting our system, but if we do adapt our system, there could be big opportunities that are not costly.” The study was published in Natural Energy. Recommended ArticlesGet the latest in engineering, tech, space & science - delivered daily to your inbox.Atharva is a full-time content writer with a post-graduate degree in media & amp; entertainment and a graduate degree in electronics & telecommunications. He has written in the sports and technology domains respectively. In his leisure time, Atharva loves learning about digital marketing and watching soccer matches. His main goal behind joining Interesting Engineering is to learn more about how the recent technological advancements are helping human beings on both societal and individual levels in their daily lives.