ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 31, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: The Russian Northern Grouping of Forces and high military command are likely lying to the Kremlin about the extent of Russian gains in northern Ukraine in order to further the narrative that Russian forces are actively advancing across the entire theater, including a part of the frontline that has been largely stagnant for nearly two years. The Kremlin is using these exaggerated claims of advance as part of its ongoing cognitive warfare effort to falsely portray Russian forces as advancing across the battlefield in order to convince Ukraine’s partners to abandon their support. Available battlefield evidence does not corroborate Russian claims of advances in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts. Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in some areas of northern Ukraine, contradicting the Russian narrative of theater-wide and unchallenged advances. Prominent Kremlin co-opted milbloggers are notably refuting the official Russian military narrative about the situation in northern Ukraine. Ukrainian defense company F-Drones delivered the first 2,000 first-person view (FPV) drones to the US military as part of the US Department of Defense’s (DoD) Drone Dominance Program. Russia launched 255 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Borova direction. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.