INSS: Israelis as concerned about violence between social groups as Iran acquiring nuclear weapons

ByDANIELLE GREYMAN-KENNARDJULY 28, 2026 19:09Updated: JULY 28, 2026 20:08Israelis viewed social cohesion and national security as the issues facing the greatest threats, according to a new report published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) on Monday.The report is based on three surveys conducted in February and July.The first, conducted in February, surveyed 921 members of the general public. A second survey, carried out in July, collected responses from 968 members of the general public. The third, also conducted in February, examined the perceptions of 147 experts from research, academia, the defense industry, and the government sector.Each survey was weighted to match Israel’s population, with 20% of respondents coming from the Arab community.Respondents were asked to select the three most threatening scenarios facing Israel in the next five years, from a list of 14 scenarios.The results published in July showed that an equal proportion of Israelis (39%) viewed both violent conflict between different social groups and the possibility of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon as the country’s greatest threats. Notably, there was a slight decline in the number of respondents ranking these issues as the most threatening compared with February, when 42% expressed concern over potential internal violence and 40% over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.A person holds a placard representing a US flag, with an image of Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on a billboard in the background, on the day of a ceremony marking 40 days since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, in Tehran, Iran, April 9, 2026. (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)Fewer Israelis were also concerned about the prospect of a large-scale missile attack on the home front, with the figure declining from 38% in February to 35% in July. Similarly, concern that the state’s democratic character could be undermined fell from 34% in February to 31% in July.In contrast, there appeared to be a growing fear of a prolonged war on one of Israel’s fronts, with 27% ranking this as among their top concerns in July, a 4% increase from February.More Israelis are also worried about international isolation and sanctions, with the figure rising 5% to 26% in the latest survey.Experts: Undermining of democracy, internal violence, international isolation greatest threatsThe public’s concerns were felt even more strongly among experts, who identified the undermining of the state’s democratic character (67%), violent conflict between societal groups (58%), and international isolation and sanctions (44%) as the most significant threats.Across the board, few rated climate change as a significant cause of concern. Only 5% of those in July, 6% of those in February, and 3% of the experts rated the issue in their top three most threatening scenarios.Damage to infrastructure and supply chains was rated similarly low, only considered a great cause of concern by 5% of respondents in July, 6% of the February respondents, and 3% of expertsMore than half of respondents from across the three surveys said that the risk of violent conflict between social groups was likely or highly likely. Across the entire sample, 69% said they expected heavy or very heavy damage if violence did occur, and 64% of the public sampled believed the state had a low or very low level of preparedness for such a conflict.The majority, 77%, said such violence would impact their feeling of personal security, and 51% said it would likely cause significant disruption to the functioning of state authorities.The survey results also suggested that the Israeli public in July believed that there was a greater likelihood of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon than they did in February, with 43% expressing this view, compared with a previous 36%. However, only 26% of experts considered such an outcome likely or highly likely. Additionally, 73% of respondents in February said they believed Iran’s potential acquisition of a nuclear weapon would be damaging, a view shared by 58% of experts. Among the public, this figure fell slightly to 67% in July.Far more likely a scenario, according to both sets of public respondents, as well as to experts, was the risk of a large-scale missile attack on the home front. Sixty-one percent of the general public in July, and 63% of experts, assessed the likelihood of it occurring as high or very high, a slight increase from the 57% who said the same in February.Perhaps indicating a growing confidence in Israel’s defenses, 56% anticipated significant damage among respondents in July, down from 66% in February. Among experts, the concern for serious damage from such an attack stood at 48%.Examined separately from the other scenarios, 55% of the public respondents in July said that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict constituted a significant threat to Israel to a large or very large extent, with 53% answering the same in the previous wave. Experts viewed this issue as more critical, with 78% considering it a high-level threat.More specifically, 35% viewed a bi-national state in which Palestinians were granted full citizenship as the main threat to Israel, with 24% pointing to the two-state solution, and 24% to full annexation without the granting of citizenship to Palestinians.Follow us on Google