Independent voters increasingly identify as Democrats: Poll

The percentage of independent voters who “lean more toward the Democratic Party” has ticked upwards ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to the latest quarterly party affiliation data aggregated by Gallup.Of the respondents in the Q2 survey who considered themselves neither a Republican nor a Democrat, 49% said they lean toward the Democratic Party, compared with 39% who prefer the Republican Party. That split has increased by four percentage points in favor of Democrats since the first quarter of 2025, when President Donald Trump returned to the White House for his second term.A similar trend is evident among voters who do identify with a specific party: 31% nationwide now say they are a Democrat, compared to 28% when Trump took office. The majority of voters still identify with neither party, though that percentage has fluctuated throughout Trump’s second term. Taken together, the new data show Democrats holding their largest advantage over Republicans since 2008, according to the New York Times. The nine-percentage-point drop in independent voters who prefer Republicans since the fourth quarter of 2022 signals trouble for GOP candidates nationwide hoping to appeal to centrist voters.Trump’s approval rating has consistently declined throughout his second term, dampening hopes for Republicans. Despite running on cost-of-living concerns that arose under former President Joe Biden, inflation has remained well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target since the conflict in Iran began in February. Voters have largely cited these tensions in the Middle East and the rising costs stemming from disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as reasons for no longer approving of the president.DEMOCRATS CONDEMN ANTI-ISRAEL JOURNALIST WHO CALLED HAKEEM JEFFRIES ‘AIPAC MONKEY’Republicans across the aisle are hoping socialist figures in the Democratic Party, such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Democratic Michigan Senate candidate Abdul el Sayed, will boost Republicans’ popularity in tight races. The Republican National Committee is holding a campaign-style convention in Texas this week to promote the party’s “common sense versus crazy” contrast.The survey was conducted with a combined random sample of over 3,000 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of two percentage points.