Hurricane Nolo expected to bring heavy rain as it skirts Hawaii’s Big Island

Sept. 25, 2026, 9:13 PM EDTNAALEHU, Hawaii — Hurricane Nolo is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane in the Pacific Ocean over the weekend, unleashing intense rain, the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding, and dangerous surf for Hawaii’s Big Island. Nolo, which was a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, will trigger tropical storm conditions for the Big Island on Friday night, the National Hurricane Center forecast. Come Saturday, hurricane conditions are possible on the island, especially in areas with steep terrain, the weather service warned. Nolo is about 155 miles south of South Point, the southernmost point of the Big Island, moving north-northeast at 5 mph as of Friday 8 p.m. ET (2 p.m. HST).This marks the third hurricane in less than two months to whip past Hawaii (following Lala and Lowell). The active Pacific hurricane season is likely due to a record-setting El Niño — a natural climate pattern characterized by a rise in sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, and spawns more intense and frequent cyclones there.On its current path, Nolo will move slowly northward Friday night, but will remain south of Big Island through Saturday. Then, it will turn westward and move away from the island but increase in speed Saturday into Sunday, the hurricane center said. Nolo’s center will remain well south of the main Hawaiian islands, the National Hurricane Center said in its Friday afternoon local time advisory. The storm could bring life-threatening catastrophic flooding and mudslides, especially in areas with steep terrain across the eastern and southern portions of the islands.Gregory Bull / APTime is almost up for residents to finish preparations for heavy rain and flooding impacts “as heavy rain increases in both coverage and intensity late today,” the National Hurricane Center warned in an advisory. For some locals still reeling from Hurricanes Lala and Lowell, Nolo’s approach is taking an emotional toll.“It hurts me when I see friends and neighbors and people of this community that I know, and I just see it in their eyes. I hear it in their voices. We’ve been through a lot down here, and we still got a lot to go,” said Mark Peters, a resident of Naalehu in southern Big Island for seven years. “We’re just getting started with our recovery, but to have yet another big storm hit us, and potentially even bigger than the last one, it’s difficult.”While he praised his community for its resilience, he said the people are still in need of basics like food and water, and many are in the process of reconstruction. “We’re talking years. This is going to be a long recovery,” Peters said Friday.He recalled driving through Waiohinu in the aftermath of Hurricane Lala and his “eyes getting wide open with all the damage, and the cars and houses moved and not where they’re supposed to be, and Waiohinu Park having buildings in the baseball field.” Nolo will unleash bands of intense showers and thunderstorms onto the Big Island of Hawaii on Friday night, and periods of heavy rain will continue across Maui County over the weekend. Eugene Garcia / APTess Kala, a South Point resident who grew up in the area, said the back-to-back storms are a shock to locals. “Honestly, this is the first like, whoa, what happened? We had a lot of family and friends that have lived here all their lives through generations and never experienced this before,” she said.Now she is preparing for Nolo by “moving everything away from the houses, tying things down, making sure that everything is hosed up and taped up as best as we possibly can.”Nolo will bring periods of heavy rain that will continue across Big Island and Maui over the weekend, and could trigger life-threatening catastrophic flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain across eastern and southern portions of both Big Island and Maui, the hurricane center said. Nolo is forecast to dump 10 to 15 inches of rain, with up to 25 inches forecasted, in eastern and southern parts of Big Island. Western portions of Big Island could see two to four inches of rain with maximum amounts of eight inches. Meanwhile, Maui could see four to six inches, with maximum amounts of 10 inches, the National Hurricane Center said. The rest of Hawaii will experience lesser rainfall totals but isolated flooding is possible. Nolo could also bring large and damaging waves along portions of Big Island’s coastline into the weekend.Nolo is then forecast to make a turn to the west on Saturday as it strengthens into a major hurricane.NOAA / via ReutersA hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect for Hawaii County and a tropical storm watch is in effect for Maui County. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within 24-36 hours. A wind advisory has been issued for the rest of the state.Tropical storm force winds will reach the Big Island on Friday afternoon, with hurricane force winds possible by late evening.A high surf advisory is in effect for south and east facing shores of Big Island and east facing shores of Maui and Molokai. A high surf advisory was also issued for east facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, and Oahu beginning Friday evening.Nolo could also spawn tornadoes and large waterspouts over and near Big Island and to the right of the track of the tropical cyclone.Marlene Lenthang reported from Los Angeles and Ryan Chandler and Shanshan Dong from Naalehu.