Google Data Says Holiday Flights Have A Sweet Spot For When To Book—But Waiting For It Can Cost You More

Google says Thanksgiving flights are the cheapest 34 days before departure, and Christmas flights 56 days out. But that doesn’t mean you should pass up a good fare today and wait to cross those dates, especially while airlines are changing schedules in response to expensive fuel. The tech giant’s new holiday airfare analysis offers interesting data on past fares, but the price you’re offered for the flight you actually want to book probably isn’t going to be guided by historical averages, and if you buy a ticket that lets you claim a credit when the fare falls, you don’t have to get the timing exactly right anyway (as long as it’s a credit you’ll use). When Holiday Fares Have Historically Been The Cheapest Evaluating five years of aggregate Google Flights data for U.S. departures, here’s where Google says average prices reached their lowest point, along with the broader period they describe as the low price range. Trip Lowest Average Price Low Price Range Domestic 39 days before departure 22–57 days before departure International 89 days 50–133 days Thanksgiving 34 days 21–57 days Christmas 56 days 33–67 days Spring break, departing in March or April 50 days 29–64 days Summer, departing in July or August 21 days 20–47 days Europe 90 days 49 days or more Mexico or the Caribbean 43 days 24–69 days For Thanksgiving, that generally means shopping in October. The Christmas low point is five days earlier than in last year’s analysis. Count backward from your departure date, not the holiday: 56 days before a December 23 flight is October 28. Google also says: The day you buy barely matters. Wednesday beat Tuesday this time, but was just 1.4% cheaper than Sunday, the most expensive booking day. That’s about $7 on a $500 ticket. The old Tuesday midnight urban legend is just that. The days you fly matter more. Departing Monday and returning Tuesday or Wednesday averaged about 14% less than weekend travel. For domestic trips, the savings reached 20% compared with departing and returning on Sunday. Nonstops cost more. Google’s figure is a 20% premium over connecting itineraries. That’s equivalent to paying about 16.7% less for a connection, not saving 20% off the nonstop price. Airlines Respond To When You Buy There’s a problem with turning these averages into instructions. Airlines forecast how many people will buy, when they’ll buy, and what they’ll pay. Then they change the fares available as bookings come in. If passengers start booking later, an airline that hasn’t adjusted its forecast might see weak early sales and open more cheap inventory. If those passengers eventually show up, prices can rise. If the airline correctly expects the late bookings, it can protect seats for those customers instead. Meanwhile, strong early bookings can cause an airline to close off its cheapest fares sooner. And if passengers never arrive in the numbers expected, the airline may discount closer to departure. In other words, the relationship to timing and price can change when passenger behavior changes. Fuel and capacity make this particularly relevant. In its July earnings release, United said it had adjusted schedules in response to the oil price spike and expected nearly $6 billion in additional annual fuel costs. Fewer seats competing for the same passengers can mean fewer cheap tickets. If airlines expect to sell the remaining seats for more later, they make less discount inventory available now. How I Decide Whether To Book I’ve given essentially the same advice for years: learn what a trip usually costs. When the price is normal or lower, and your plans are firm, buy. When it’s unusually high, see if there’s a clear reason why like a special event. If there’s no clear explanation and plenty of time before travel, I wait. Start watching early. Use Google Flights’ date grid, price history and price guidance. Check surrounding dates. If the price of your trip looks high, look for what could be driving that like a holiday, school break, major event, fewer flights or less competition than in the past. Buy an attractive fare when you find it. I’ve warned against buying too early, because the cheapest inventory may not be available when schedules first open. But if it’s a low fare compared to expectation, it’s worth grabbing. Buy a fare that doesn’t penalize changes. Generally avoid basic economy. On tickets without change fees, you can often claim a credit if the price drops. Keep watching after you buy. Set an alert for your actual flights, not just the cheapest option between the two cities. When the fare falls, ask the airline to reprice the reservation and issue the difference, or use its change process if you have to. Delta, for instance, explains that a lower-priced replacement produces an eCredit after any change fees. Check that you’ve kept the same seats and upgrades. Factor credit expiration, whether it’s transferable and know that you’ll fly the airline again within the time allotted to know how useful this will be for the trip you’re booking. And when cash prices are high, check award pricing also I’ve also written about automating this with pAIback. Its current site lists American, United, Delta, Alaska and Hawaiian, covering eligible tickets booked directly with the airline. There isn’t a monthly fee; they charge 20% of the savings they secure. A $100 airline credit means a $20 cash charge. Google’s alerts are free, but leave you to obtain the credit yourself. Topics on this page