EXPLAINED: Can Oleshky Be Evacuated, Razed to Eliminate Russian Strategic Lookout?

A ceasefire is due to take effect along the front line near Oleshky, a city close to Kherson, on Oct. 27 to allow a humanitarian evacuation operation. It will involve delivering humanitarian aid to the city and evacuating civilians who wish to leave.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. However, the idea has not been welcomed by everyone, despite support from Pope Leo XIV and US First Lady Melania Trump. The idea that partial ceasefires and humanitarian initiatives can gradually de-escalate the Russian-Ukrainian war is not new. But in Ukraine, it is met with skepticism, particularly by people living in Kherson, a major regional center located directly across the river from Oleshky. Why? Key staging ground for attacks Oleshky is a district-level city in southern Ukraine, on the left bank of the Dnipro River — Ukraine’s equivalent of the Mississippi — directly opposite Kherson, a regional capital with a population of 300,000 on the right bank. Before 2022, Oleshky had a population of more than 20,000. During the fighting in 2022, both Oleshky and Kherson were occupied by Russian forces. The Russians were driven out of Kherson in the fall of 2022. However, Ukrainian forces were unable to cross the major water obstacle and dislodge Russian troops from Oleshky. Since then, the city has remained under Russian occupation, with the Dnipro serving as a de facto line of separation. Both Oleshky and Kherson found themselves on the front line. Other Topics of Interest Trump to Nominate Viktor Orbán as UN Secretary General WSJ reports Trump has invited former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to enter the race for the next UN Secretary-General. Kherson and Oleshky on the Deepstate OSINT map. Green-colored – zone of Ukrainian military control; Red-colored – Russian occupied and controlled territory (Screenshot from Deepstate map) Over time, Oleshky became a staging ground from which Russian artillerists, drone technicians and operators launched attacks on Kherson. “They are simply very close. A drone just has to cross the Dnipro — and that matters for fiber-optic drones. The shorter the distance, the better. And then there is Kherson,” a military service member who spent a long time fighting on the Kherson front told Kyiv Post. As a result, the Ukrainian forces began actively targeting Oleshky, disrupting Russian logistics. Civilians became hostages to the fighting. Oleshky’s population has fallen to one tenth its peak during the war. According to local Proposal, the city’s current population does not exceed approximately 2,000. Residents face shortages of food and fresh, potable drinking water — a problem that became recurring afte the Russian military blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant in the summer of 2023, flooding large areas with contaminated reservoir water. Fresh produce was last delivered to the city several months ago. Sometimes, the Ukrainian Armed Forces help locals by delivering food by drones, but its impossible to deliver enough food for thousands. “It would be wrong to say that only ‘waiters’ — that is, pro-Russian people — remain in Oleshky. Often, these are simply people who have nowhere to go and no money to leave: poor people, pensioners without relatives, and so on. Russia uses them as cover, setting up positions directly inside their residential buildings, including private homes,” said Serhiy Nikitenko, a journalist from Kherson. According to one service member, Ukrainian artillery crews and drone operators already know “every house in Oleshky where Russians are stationed, but they do not attack because there are civilians there.” This is the first reason for the skepticism. Few people believe the Russians will allow civilians to evacuate from a key staging ground for attacks on Kherson. “Once civilians leave Oleshky and the Russians no longer have a human shield in this open, steppe city, the Ukrainian military will tear them apart,” a volunteer from Kherson told Kyiv Post. Several hundred people are expected to leave the city. However, it is unlikely that the Russians will allow everyone to evacuate. Weapons instead of food and water The second reason for concern is that previous attempts to establish “humanitarian corridors” to deliver supplies to various locations have generally ended with the Russian side blatantly violating the agreements and delivering … additional weapons and ammunition to the settlements instead of food and water. “People in Kherson expect things to get even worse because, in previous cases, the Russians brought in new drone operators to replace those eliminated by Ukrainian drone crews, fuel for generators powering military equipment, ammunition, and other supplies. Everyone expects that after this ‘delivery,’ Kherson will be hit by everything that can fly, and the destruction will be even greater,” said Oleksandr Vlasov, a Kherson businessman and lifelong resident of the city. Serhiy Nikitenko shares this view. He notes that Russian drone attacks on Kherson have become somewhat less frequent over the past month, thanks to Ukrainian drone operators who have prevented reinforcements and additional equipment from reaching Oleshky. Meanwhile, residents are actively discussing in Kherson social media groups whether anyone will be able to monitor what exactly — and how much — the Russians bring into Oleshky through the humanitarian corridor. Their conclusion is bleak: no one will. “The saddest thing is that the only ones who will benefit from this kind of ‘humanitarian initiative’ are the Russian military and perhaps a few dozen people who want to evacuate. For the most part, nothing will improve for Oleshky’s residents, while things will only get worse for people in Kherson,” an administrator of a Kherson social media group told Kyiv Post. And what about the people of Kherson? For now, sources in the city say there are no visible signs of preparations for tomorrow’s operation in Kherson itself. However, that does not necessarily mean nothing is happening behind the scenes. “Many Kherson residents plan to rush to their houses or apartments in the dangerous zone near the Dnipro if the ceasefire takes effect, hoping to retrieve valuables. Normally, they simply cannot access homes closer to the river,” Vlasov said. A local activist also said he had hired a car so that, if the ceasefire comes into effect, he could “take out the household appliances” from his apartment. He has not visited it for more than two years because of the risk of drone strikes: it is too close to the Dnipro, and going outside in the area is dangerous. However, according to locals, there are still no visible signs in Kherson of tomorrow’s operation. Several days ago, a Russian drone struck a passenger bus in the city, killing and injuring people. Meanwhile, residents of neighborhoods farther from the river continue to move around while constantly scanning the sky.