AI Will Make Credit Card Rewards More Competitive—And Make It Harder To Get Approved

Banks and airlines are excited about using artificial intelligence to analyze customers, improve marketing, and sell more rewards credit cards. I think they’re underestimating what happens when customers get better tools, too—and when the technology creates more demand for capital. I spoke on the opening credit card panel at oneworld’s Loyalty Summit on Tuesday, September 8, alongside the head of currency for IAG Loyalty and the Chief Business Officer of Cardless. Brian Sumers, who moderated, said we’re basically required by law to end any panel with a question about AI. My answer was that I see two major effects on rewards cards, and neither fits neatly into the prevailing narrative about how AI is going to change things for loyalty program card deals. Credit: oneworld Mediocre Cards Become Harder To Sell Customers are getting superintelligence in their pockets. As those tools improve, it gets harder to rely on consumer ignorance to sell an inferior product. Consumers will just ask the AI which card makes sense for their actual spending, their reward goals, and the awards they can really book. The best cards should do better. The vast middle will have a harder time picking up a natural share of customers just because a big bank puts the product in front of them. Already a bad card has a hard time. I get pitched new card products all the time by banks, my first question is “who is this card for? who are the customers it makes better off than any product on the market today? I usually get an answer like “this is a card for millennials who prefer experiences over things.” That’s when I know the card is going to fail. Why is this card a real solution for a segment of customers? There has to be substance, or else there’ll be no reason to switch to it and anyone considering a new card can do better. Better-informed consumers mean margin pressure. Banks have to give customers more value to compete, or lose customers to those that do. The same technology that helps an issuer find prospects helps prospects decide which card is actually best for them. More Things Worth Financing Means Less Consumer Spending And Less Consumer Credit We’re going to build a lot of expensive data centers. Chips are expensive. New energy sources require a lot of capital. And AI is going to create a lot more high-value projects worth investing in. And there’s not enough savings today to fund all of the high value possibilities. That means projects will bid up real interest rates. It’s not especially popular to be positive about AI, but it’s becoming clear that my kids will probably get to die of old age rather than heart disease or cancer. And if the technology helps make desalination cheaper, that opens up more of the West and Southwest for development. You then need to finance housing, infrastructure and energy to build. That all competes for capital. For card issuers, a more expensive borrowing environment mean pressures on lending, tougher approvals, and lower credit limits. And for consumers there’s a real value on saving rather than spending, because of the higher returns and greater future consumption that opens up. At the same time, people who expect to be much richer in the future may also see less reason to sacrifice consumption and save today. Over time, the wealth created by all this can replenish savings and push real rates back down, but card issuers would still have to get through the period where investment demand runs ahead of available savings. Status Dan shared video of my answer on how AI will affect card. https://viewfromthewing.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/here-are-some-of-the-highlights-from-oneworlds-loyalty-summit-cc-godsavethe_KrzKsKEu.mp4 Topics on this page