Yes, there are Republicans in DC. And they’re mad about taxes

Welcome to Tuesday’s Washington Secrets. Republicans in the city want you to know they are alive and well ahead of next week’s elections. And they want you to know they are ready to fight D.C.’s planned tax hikes. Plus, there are signs (faint signs, but signs nonetheless) that some of the wilder predictions of a blue tidal wave around the country are facing up to reality…A rare species was spotted in Washington’s Farragut Square on Monday at lunchtime. Not the homeless man dragging an oversized suitcase and shouting at himself, not the pigeons landing on the namesake statue, nor the office workers carrying paper bags of lunch and looking for a bench in the sunshine.They are common at this time of year. Less often seen is the elusive breed identified by their plumage: signs saying “Stop DC’s tax grab,” and “Ditch DC’s tax drain.” These are the D.C. Republicans.“We have to be able to show people that we have a pulse, and that we breathe, and that we’re here, and that we have Republicans in this city,” said MAGA broadcaster John Fredericks, the party’s Ward 2 chairman, at the end of a press conference.A dozen or so supporters rallied with him. “We have to be able to show people that we have a pulse, and that we breathe, and that we’re here, and that we have Republicans in this city,” said MAGA broadcaster John Fredericks. (Rob Crilly/Washington Examiner) These are not the same species as the 20-something GOP Hill staffers who seek mates at the Scarlet Oak bar on Wine Wednesdays, or the lobbyists and strategists grazing on steak and tallow-fried fries at Butterworth’s restaurant, or the old-school Republicans who can be spotted at the Capitol Hill Club.Many of those have migrated away while Congress is out of session and members are vacationing or campaigning around the country (depending on poll numbers).Fredericks and his allies are different. They live and vote in the district, and they have assembled to protest planned tax hikes.“Washington D.C., has an $800 million deficit hole, and they’re handing you the shovel to dig out of it,” he said. “That’s not a revenue problem. We’ve got a spending problem. Say it with me: not one more dime.”Three-quarters of the city’s voters are registered Democrats. Only 5% are Republicans.Next week, its voters will vote in another Democratic mayor. Its council of 13 members will remain a bastion of one-party dominance, whatever the results.And at the top of their agenda will be contending with that vast budget hole.Ten days ago, the current members met for a marathon hearing to discuss seven ways of raising revenue. The smorgasbord ranges from a new tax on business activity — closing a loophole that bars D.C. from taxing the profits of business owners who live outside the district — to a 3% surcharge on profits from selling stocks or other holdings, a pied-à-terre tax on second homes, or raising property tax or income tax.Republicans say those are the wrong solutions.Christina Goodlander, the party’s vice chair, said tackling the city’s ballooning spending should be the priority, not inventing new taxes to scare away businesses.“A lot of them have fewer than five staff members,” she said. “These are not fat cats. These are just regular Americans who are trying to live the American dream, and the far left of the D.C. Council wants to strangle them.”Anywhere else, the issue would be at the center of next week’s elections. But when D.C. operates as pretty much a one-party town, the result is a foregone conclusion, according to an irritated Fredericks, with voters left out of the conversation.“They’ll all get elected, and then they’ll vote on it when they’re already in there, and you can’t do anything about it,” said Fredericks of the Democratic slate. “We’re paying attention starting today. Every voter in this city needs to wake up to what is going on.”Fredericks is on a mission to shake up what he sees as a slumbering local GOP that has all but given up on campaigning, opting instead to become a social club.Barely two blocks away from the White House and the most famous Republican in the country, Fredericks ends with a final exhortation to get out the vote next week.The press conference is wrapped in 18 minutes, and the pigeons get their patch of grass back.You are reading Washington Secrets, a guide to power and politics in D.C. and beyond. It is written by Rob Crilly, who you can reach at [email protected] with your comments, story tips, and suggestions.Has the blue wave peaked? There are signs, for those who need them, that the high-water mark for Democratic hopes ahead of the midterm elections came last week.A string of markers has moved towards the Republicans since then, if only faintly.Take, for example, bookmaker Betline’s over/under line for the number of seats Republicans will win in the Senate. It moved from about 47.5 last week to 48.5 this week.Gamblers can bet on whether they think the final result will be more or fewer than this number, so the bookmaker sets it at the point they think will split the outcomes evenly. In other words, it gives a measure of the market’s approximate expectation for the number.The move reflects polls showing the Maine race becoming tighter, and a shift in Minnesota, where Republicans are putting up a good showing in a contest that Democrats expected to win comfortably. In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) is tied with Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, according to a Fox News poll in a race where she had trailed by 4 points.And Paul Krishnamurty, BetOnline’s political oddsmaker, said he was also seeing money come in backing Republicans Mike Rogers in Michigan and Ken Paxton in Texas.“I think that probably the way I would explain it is that the kind of blue wave fever got a bit carried away last week,” Krishnamurty told Secrets.At one point, Krishnamurty said, virtually every market — House majority, House districts, Senate races, overall totals — moved sharply toward the Democrats so that even some really longshot House flips moved on to the radar.“Places you would just never consider,” he said.In Maine, a wave of support in the form of five-figure bets early last week sent Jackson’s odds crashing to -200 (bet $200 to profit $100 if he won).“At that point there’s a lot of people in the market who want to back Republicans, and they were like, right, okay, here’s my mark,” he said.Money started flowing into Republican markets, as gamblers realized there was money to be made in races where the odds underestimated Republican chances.Today, Collins’ chances stand at +125 (bet $100 to profit $125) while Jackson is at -155 (bet $155 to profit $100).Democrats are still favorites, just a bit less so than last week.Lunchtime reading Leave the Cheesecake Factory out of this: Had enough of the Cheesecake Factory discourse yet? 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