With US and Ukraine at odds, Russia cautiously tries to take advantage

Moscow | Oct. 16, 2026, 5:29 p.m. ET | 4 min read Russians have grown used to Donald Trump’s near-whimsical tendency to change direction. But the president’s latest turn toward Russia and away from supporting Ukraine has some analysts wondering whether he might really mean it this time.The bargain reached last week between Mr. Trump and Vladimir Putin to potentially release millions of tons of Russian diesel fuel onto world markets in the coming months is not significant in itself, Russian analysts say.But the unilateral U.S. lifting of export restrictions to enable the deal has driven a wedge into the wall of sanctions the West has built around Russia since the war in Ukraine began almost five years ago. It could be a sign that Mr. Trump is ready to drop his insistence that the war must end before the U.S. and Russia might engage in broader trade and investment opportunities, and that a general U.S.-Russia rapprochement could begin even as the fighting rages on. The fuel deal has been accompanied by a bitter falling out between Mr. Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, possibly even worse than the February 2025 Oval Office confrontation between the two leaders. Vitaly Timkiv/Sputnik/APA tanker sits at the oil terminal of the Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port, in Novorossiysk, Russia. On Oct. 9, U.S. President Donald Trump announced an agreement under which Russia would supply diesel fuel to the United States and global markets. This time, the Ukrainian president has vowed to defy Mr. Trump’s demands that Kyiv halt its drone campaign against Russian oil refineries, and often insulting rhetoric has flown both ways for the first time. Mr. Zelenskyy, formerly deferential toward the U.S. president, declared that Mr. Trump has “betrayed Ukraine” and shown “weakness” by making the Russian diesel deal. Mr. Trump lashed back that it is “time for Ukraine to get a new president” and told an interviewer that “I find Zelenskyy to be more difficult to deal with than Putin.”All of this is music to Russia’s ears.“It looks like relations between Trump and Zelenskyy have crossed the point of no return, and obviously that’s good news for Russia,” says Sergei Strokan, international affairs columnist for the Moscow business daily Kommersant. “It comes after so many flip-flops on Trump’s part, and so there’s not much confidence that it will continue. But the signaling this time is very strong, and it’s not just Zelenskyy but also his European backers who are getting the message that the U.S. is no longer with them.” It comes amid reports that Ukraine has run out of Patriot anti-missile interceptors. At the same time, stepped-up Russian aerial bombardments have virtually shut down Ukraine’s steel industry, blocked most exports of agricultural goods, hobbled rail transport, and are threatening to destroy the country’s electrical grid.Ukraine’s drone strikes, most recently against Russian data centers, have heaped more inconvenience upon Russian consumers, who already face major internet disruptions. But they have done little to hamper the war machine.Meanwhile, Mr. Trump’s threats to halt intelligence cooperation with Ukraine appeared to briefly materialize when Kyiv received no advance warning of Russian missile attacks for two days running – a lapse blamed on “bad weather.” Ukraine’s access to the U.S. government-controlled version of Elon Musk’s Starlink, known as Starshield, was also inexplicably throttled, though service was subsequently restored. Henry Nicholls/ReutersUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reacts during a meeting with British Prime Minister Andy Burnham in London, Oct. 14, 2026. In recent days, the Ukrainian leader has criticized President Donald Trump over a deal for diesel fuel the U.S. has made with Russia. The satellite data provided to Ukraine, mainly by the United States, includes early warning of impending Russian attacks; detailed targeting data for Ukrainian drones seeking Russian refineries, consumer warehouses, and data centers; and real-time assistance in evading Russian air defenses, experts say. Any permanent cutoff could be catastrophic for Ukraine’s war effort.“The question we’re all asking is, how far is Trump willing to go?” says Igor Korotchenko, editor of National Defense magazine, which is widely read by Russia’s military and security elite. “Starshield is of key importance for the Ukrainian armed forces, and so the warning issued to Ukraine was very serious. It’s a real trump card, but is Trump ready to use it?”The Russian conviction that they are slowly but surely winning the war looks stronger than ever. But no one thinks it will be over soon. “There are no serious peace proposals on the table at the moment, and no peace deal on the horizon,” says Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser and head of the Institute of Political Studies in Moscow. “The only thing they’re talking about now is an ‘energy ceasefire,’ and there are very different ideas about that. Russia could be ready for an energy ceasefire, but only if it includes a full lifting of sanctions on Russian oil.” Deepen your worldviewwith Monitor Highlights.Politics with respectGet political stories with respectful analysis.There‘s a world of new ideas in everyBooks newsletter.There‘s more to life, enrich yours withCulture & Learning weekly.Follow humanity‘s discoveries withScience & Nature stories in your inbox.Gain a spiritual perspectivefrom the stories in your inbox.Want to understand the deeper impact of critical events? Learn the Monitor‘s insight.Already a subscriber? Log in to hide ads. Mr. Putin appears to be pressing talks with Mr. Trump in hopes that it might bring a new relationship between the U.S. and Russia, even if peace in Ukraine remains unachievable.“Moscow believes that U.S.-Russia relations have their own independent value, and they should not be hostage to Ukraine or anything else,” says Mr. Strokan. “The Europeans keep demanding that Ukraine must be solved before any other deals with Russia can be done. But there are signs that Trump is growing impatient with this approach and wants to start doing business with Russia now. The diesel deal could be an opening.” ALREADY A SUBSCRIBER? LoginReal news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.The Christian Science Monitor was founded in 1908 to lift the standard of journalism and uplift humanity. We aim to “speak the truth in love.” Our goal is not to tell you what to think, but to give you the essential knowledge and understanding to come to your own intelligent conclusions. Join us in this mission by subscribing.