With southwest monsoon set for withdrawal, rain deficit in Keralam widens to 28%

Amid severe power crisis, the rainfall deficit in Keralam is set to widen further with the southwest monsoon likely to begin withdrawing from the country on September 19. The State has recorded a rainfall deficit of around 28%, with Idukki and Wayanad together reporting a shortfall of around 50%.According to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) weather bulletin issued on Thursday, conditions are becoming favourable for the southwest monsoon to withdraw from parts of west Rajasthan around September 19, two days later than the normal date of September 17. However, the withdrawal is likely to be marked by intermittent pauses as a low-pressure area is expected to form over the Andaman Sea and adjoining areas around September 19.The system is likely to gradually intensify into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestward towards the south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts over the next three to four days. It could influence the progress of the monsoon withdrawal for a couple of days and trigger rainfall in parts of Keralam towards the fag end of the season, bringing some relief to the State.Speaking to The Hindu, Neetha K. Gopal, Director, IMD Kerala, said the State is likely to receive some initial showers around September 19 and 20 as the system develops, and widespread rainfall is expected three to four days after its formation, when it moves closer to the coast between south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh. The rainfall is likely to bring some respite from the summer-like heat being experienced in several parts of the State, she said.However, the system is unlikely to bridge the State’s rainfall deficit as it has received only 1,380.3 mm of rain as of September 17 against the normal 1,908.5 mm, recording a shortfall of 28%. The State receives an average of 2,018.7 mm during the four-month southwest monsoon season, which officially ends on September 30, leaving only about 13 days in the current season.Northeast monsoonThe withdrawal of the southwest monsoon does not imply a complete cessation of rainfall activity in Keralam. Scattered rain is likely to continue even after the formal withdrawal until the onset of the northeast monsoon. Normally, the northeast monsoon begins over the southern peninsula around the same time of the withdrawal, though its onset in Keralam may occur about two weeks after September 30.Meanwhile, only six districts have received normal rainfall, while the rest have recorded significant deficits. Idukki and Wayanad, which account for a major share of the State’s hydel power stations and reservoirs, have reported the highest shortfalls at 47% and 54%, respectively. Punalur in Kollam recorded the season’s highest temperature of 37 degree Celsius on September 16.With El Niño firmly established and expected to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, experts do not anticipate a normal or above-normal northeast monsoon season this year as the phenomenon is expected to influence rainfall and temperature patterns, increasing the risk of drought and extreme heat across the country. Published - September 17, 2026 08:35 pm IST