William has a plan to come out on top – and Harry is already feeling its force

Since Harry and Meghan left Britain for California, leaving behind official royal duties, relations between the couple and the rest of the royals have been rocky. But now the Sussexes have returned to the UK and begun mending fences, things have changed. William is the heir to the throne and diligently takes on the responsibilities which come with that. But Harry, with his place in the public eye but outside of The Firm, has the freedom to speak and act more openly than his brother. So, will Harry or William win the UK’s hearts and minds? Royal correspondent Richard Palmer and The i Paper columnist Anne McElvoy give their perspectives. Once, Harry, Meghan, William and Kate were the “Fab Four” – a short-lived attempt after Harry and Meghan’s wedding in the heady summer of 2018 to have the glitzy quartet align in joint public appearances. That was doomed to rapid failure amid icy personal dynamics between the fabsters, the ensuing “Megxit” to the US and a Krakatoa of reckonings from the Sussexes in a tell-all memoir (and TV documentary series) which deepened the rift. The reverberations of Harry’s homecoming have set up a new dynamic, as the first couple of Montecito mooch around the fashionable haunts of the Cotswolds and pursue their quest for amped-up security to facilitate a return to the front line of the publicity wars. It is an unspoken but fierce battle for the nation’s hearts and minds – and one which William, as heir to the throne, is determined will go his way.The return of the Sussexes was not on the Palace’s bingo card, and especially unwelcome to the Prince and Princess of Wales. Prince William’s voice has become more important in strategising how to deal with the rearrival of an estranged brother and sister-in-law. And anyone who has encountered William knows that he can be remarkably steely when he wants to prevent something. So, the idea of a rapprochement feels fanciful – the trust levels are too low. As one friend of the Prince puts it: “William is very decidedly of the view that the Sussexes need to be kept at arm’s length.” The optics of the return from the King and Queen’s point of view were that it would be churlish to cold-shoulder a prodigal son, or to seem indifferent to meeting two of his grandchildren in the latter part of his life. So, while aides made clear that Harry and Meghan’s sudden decision to come to the UK had taken them by surprise, the symbolism of the four meeting for tea at Highgrove in July was positive. But Harry started to plan engagements which could bring him close to his elder brother’s schedule. I understand that the idea of appearing at an army-related event in Norfolk – a territory Wiliam and Kate consider their base, and where they spend time at Anmer Hall – was met with a curt dismissal. That also demonstrated a point the Palace would duly make in a communique last month: that the couple are private citizens and not working, or even semi-working, royals. William has stiffened spines on this point, arguing that if there is the slightest room for ambiguity, problems will arise. Conversely, Harry and Meghan forged a strategically deepened friendship with Earl Spencer on “Team Diana”. The publication of Spencer’s emotional memoir of his late sister reopened the wounds of her death and family fissures about her legacy. Essentially, Harry and Spencer align on a narrative that equates the treatment they feel is unfairly meted out by the press and intrusions of privacy, with the pursuit of Diana which ended in her tragic demise. This is terrain which greatly annoys William. “He feels his mother’s loss as deeply as his brother,” says a school friend. “But he wouldn’t dream of leveraging it.” One way or the other, a powerful heir to the throne has to deal with a scenario in which his sibling and high-profile wife are in the UK. The immediate response of a keenly strategic Prince of Wales household – now massively staffed up with communications, strategy and slick operational gurus – is to prevail simply by being the more steadily appealing “soft power” team. Harry and Meghan favour politically aligned, often progressively tinged or dealing with topics of the moment. But Harry’s stuttering intervention warning about AI at the Clinton Global Initiative ended with an awkward hard landing when the autocue stalled and words failed him. The Waleses, meanwhile, have a world-class “ops” team supporting them, to ensure that very few untoward events ever occur during their engagements. William and Kate (who prefers to be introduced these days by the queenlier full name of Catherine) are meanwhile building out their domestic presence after a break during her cancer treatment and recovery. That stems from a recognition that the couple need to be familiar to many different communities across the country, and maintain a presence outside tiara-and-stilettoes formal appearances. A recent outing to see a community hub supporting elderly people living in rural areas in and around West Sussex village of Pulborough was a case in point – showing empathy for ordinary people and especially the vulnerable, lonely or unwell, and designed to be more “hands on” than the stiff old royal walkabouts. Kate helped a 94-year-old local resident out of her house to a bus – and then hopped on it herself to hitch a lift to the village hall and (Andy Burnham style) compared favourite crisps with pensioner lunch guests: “I usually buy the salted ones.” On a visit to a cancer centre, the Princess acknowledged the mental health strains of cancer treatment. William, meanwhile, has visited areas affected by severe flooding in Somerset – a signal that he does not give up on his concern about climate change, however gusty the political winds around the topic. The ideal scenario for the Waleses is that Harry and Meghan decide over the next year that the UK has delighted them long enough and move back to California. But William and Kate are too savvy and battle-hardened to want to appear as the couple who drove out a frustrated brother and sister-in-law again. The recipe for dealing with them is in essence one of unbenign neglect – and focusing intently on other things. Meanwhile, Meghan has launched a “luxury festive gift offering” (otherwise known as hampers) via her Instagram account. Full marks for moxy, should she send one to her relatives. One senses that there would not be much sent back by return of post.