Why Trump's unpopularity may not translate into midterm landslide for Democrats

US President Donald Trump's declining popularity, growing frustration over the cost of living and public dissatisfaction with the US war with Iran have created favourable conditions for Democrats in the 2026 midterm elections. Several opinion polls have also pointed to support for the opposition party, with Democrats making inroads into traditionally Republican territory. However, a strong mood does not necessarily translate into a sweeping electoral victory.Despite expectations of gains, analysts and party strategists have cautioned that several obstacles could prevent Democrats from securing the kind of landslide victory seen in previous midterm elections. A shrinking number of competitive congressional races, difficult Senate contests, turnout uncertainties and a substantial Republican fundraising advantage could all limit the scale of gains.According to analysts and party strategists interviewed by Reuters, a combination of electoral, financial and political factors could prevent Democrats from securing a decisive victory. FEWER COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES LIMIT DEMOCRATIC GAINSOne of the biggest challenges for Democrats is the shrinking number of genuinely competitive seats in the House of Representatives.Over the past three decades, political polarisation and repeated redrawing of electoral boundaries have made several congressional districts increasingly safe for either Democrats or Republicans. The practice of gerrymandering, in which electoral boundaries are drawn to benefit a particular political party, has further reduced the number of seats where candidates from both sides have a realistic chance of winning. As a result, only around 40 to 50 of the 435 seats in the House are considered genuinely competitive in the 2026 elections.Democrats are widely expected to make gains and potentially regain control of the lower chamber, but the size of their majority could remain relatively small. Estimates suggest they could secure a majority of between five and 20 seats, considerably below the gains they made during the 2018 midterms, when they picked up 41 seats.Bill Galston, a former White House adviser to President Bill Clinton, said even a gain of 25 seats would give Democrats control without providing a particularly large majority."They'd have a working majority, but not a huge one."A narrow majority would give Democrats control of the House and greater authority to scrutinise Trump's administration. However, it would also leave little room for internal disagreements, making it harder for party leaders to secure support for controversial legislation.WINNING THE SENATE REMAINS A TOUGH CHALLENGEThe battle for the Senate presents another significant hurdle for Democrats.Unlike the House, where all 435 voting seats are contested every two years, only around one-third of the Senate's 100 seats are up for election during each midterm cycle. This means Democrats cannot simply rely on a nationwide swing in their favour. They must also win specific contests in states where Republicans have traditionally enjoyed strong support.Republicans entered Election Day with a 53-47 Senate advantage, including two independents who caucus with Democrats. To secure a 51-49 majority, Democrats need a net gain of four seats.However, several of their main targets are in states that Trump won comfortably in the 2024 presidential election.David Wasserman, an elections' analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Democrats would need to make substantial breakthroughs in states where Trump secured double-digit victories. He estimated that even a 10-percentage-point national swing towards Democrats could leave the party two seats short of a Senate majority.The contests in Maine, New Hampshire and Michigan have also proved more challenging than Democrats had initially anticipated."Republicans are hanging very close in those races," Andrew Busch, a public policy professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and author of a history of midterm elections told Reuters."That's not necessarily what you would expect if things were going well for Democrats across the board."TURNOUT COULD BECOME A MAJOR PROBLEMAnother uncertainty is whether Democratic voters who have expressed dissatisfaction with Trump will actually turn out in sufficient numbers. Opinion polls indicate greater enthusiasm among Democratic voters. However, analysts warn that enthusiasm does not always translate into votes, particularly during midterm elections.Younger voters and Black and Hispanic communities are important Democratic constituencies. Historically, however, turnout among these groups has tended to be lower in midterm elections than in presidential contests.The problem is particularly relevant because dissatisfaction over the cost of living has also created frustration among voters who do not necessarily identify strongly with either political party.If younger voters and minority communities stay away from polling stations in larger numbers than expected, Democrats could struggle to translate their polling advantage into victories in closely contested districts.Early voting figures from states that register voters by political affiliation have indicated stronger Democratic participation. Republicans, however, argue that their supporters traditionally prefer voting in person on Election Day, meaning early voting figures may not provide a complete picture.The experience of the 2022 midterms also offers a warning. Voters aged 50 and older accounted for nearly twice the share of the electorate as those under 50. Older voters have leaned Republican in recent election cycles, according to exit polls.REPUBLICANS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT MONEY ADVANTAGEMoney is another important factor that could work in Republicans' favour, particularly in the final stages of closely contested races.Republicans entered the closing weeks of the campaign with a substantial financial advantage over Democrats. Filings with the Federal Election Commission showed that Republican national committees and major allied political action committees had accumulated hundreds of millions of dollars more in available funds.Trump also deployed considerable financial resources to support struggling Republican candidates through his MAGA Inc. super PAC, which spent more than USD 277 million on television advertising and direct-mail campaigns, according to FEC data.Tesla CEO Elon Musk was another major financial backer of Republican candidates. He spent approximately $366 million during the midterm election cycle, including USD 276 million since July.The financial gap was also visible in Senate battleground advertising. Republicans had outspent Democrats by USD 188 million in advertising across key Senate contests by the end of September, according to AdImpact.Such spending can be particularly important in closely fought constituencies, where television advertisements, campaign outreach and last-minute mobilisation efforts can influence undecided voters."Any time you have one side with a big financial advantage and the ability to pour it into races at the last minute, it can tip the result of close races," Busch told Reuters.Although money alone does not guarantee electoral success, the Republican advantage gives the party greater resources to defend vulnerable seats and reach voters during the final stretch.OPINION POLLS HAVE PREVIOUSLY UNDERESTIMATED REPUBLICAN SUPPORTDemocrats also face the risk that opinion polls may not accurately reflect the final voting pattern.Recent Reuters/Ipsos polling showed registered voters favouring Democrats over Republicans by 47 per cent to 35 per cent on the congressional generic ballot. The generic ballot asks voters which party they would prefer to see control Congress, rather than asking them to choose between individual candidates in specific constituencies.However, polling organisations have underestimated Republican support in several recent election cycles, raising questions about how reliably current surveys capture voter preferences.The biggest polling errors have occurred in elections featuring Trump himself. Although he is not a candidate in the 2026 midterms, the president has urged his supporters to approach the elections as though he were on the ballot.The 2014 midterms offer one example of how polls can fail to capture Republican strength. Surveys underestimated the party's performance before Republicans secured a sweeping victory in the Senate.However, polling errors do not always work in the same direction. In the 2022 midterms, surveys underestimated Democratic performance.REPUBLICAN ATTACKS ON SOCIALISM COULD INFLUENCE VOTERSRepublicans are also attempting to turn the ideological differences within the Democratic Party into an electoral advantage. Trump and several Republican candidates have repeatedly portrayed Democrats as socialists and political extremists, arguing that their policies pose a threat to the country.The strategy is aimed particularly at independent and moderate voters, who could be uncomfortable with the more progressive positions associated with parts of the Democratic Party. Republicans have pointed to the victories of Democratic Socialists of America members and progressive candidates in Democratic primaries to suggest that the party as a whole is moving towards the left.However, fewer than two dozen candidates associated with the movement secured victories this year, according to the Reuters report.The attacks have also prompted some Democratic candidates in competitive constituencies to distance themselves from the socialist label. Several have openly described themselves as capitalists, seeking to reassure voters who might otherwise be concerned about the party's economic positions.WHAT IS AT STAKE IN THE 2026 MIDTERMS?The 2026 midterm elections will determine who controls both chambers of the US Congress for the remaining two years of Trump's second term.The House of Representatives has 435 voting members, with all seats contested every two years. The Senate has 100 members who serve staggered six-year terms, meaning approximately one-third of its seats are contested during each election cycle.Republicans entered Election Day with 218 seats in the House against 214 held by Democrats. One independent member and two vacant seats account for the remainder. Democrats need a net gain of three seats to secure a majority in the lower chamber.In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats, compared with 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democratic Party. Democrats need to gain four seats to take control.The stakes extend well beyond the composition of Congress. A Democratic majority in either chamber could significantly complicate Trump's legislative agenda, increase congressional scrutiny of his administration and give opposition lawmakers greater control over investigations and oversight.The Iran war, rising living costs and Trump's declining approval ratings have given Democrats several issues to take to voters. But whether those concerns translate into a sweeping victory will depend on the number of competitive seats, voter participation, campaign resources and the performance of individual candidates.- EndsWith inputs from Reuters