Why the Democrats Won’t Get Trump to Back Amnesty

Politics A compromise bill would be a tough sell in both parties. “Immigration reform” is once again a hot topic in Washington, DC. President Donald Trump, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, and leading Democrats are talking about working together on a possible immigration deal. This isn’t the first time Trump has suggested such an idea, and it could end up being just talk. Any possible deal would be a tough sell to both sides of the political aisle. But if Democrats want to pursue such a course, they have multiple pieces of legislation they can revive in the next Congress. With an overwhelming majority in both chambers and a weakened president, Democrats may see the next two years as their opportunity to enact one of their primary legislative goals. Democrats (and some Republicans) would love to legalize all illegal aliens in the country. This was, in essence, the aim of the amnesty bills put forward in 2007 and 2013. Traditionally, supporters of this sort of legislation have tried to win Republican support by offering the promise of greater border security and immigration enforcement. But Joe Biden’s 2021 proposal dispensed with any concessions. The U.S. Citizenship Act would have given a pathway to citizenship to all illegal immigrants and expanded foreign aid to Central America. The only “security” measure it included was a vague pledge to have more surveillance on the border. The bill was never taken up by Congress because it had zero GOP support. There was nothing in it for those pro-immigration Republicans who would need to obtain something to save face with their constituents. It was a pure amnesty. It’s extremely unlikely a revival of this Biden-era bill would gain any support from the admin or any congressional Republicans. It offers them nothing. But that could be the point. If Democrats just want to score points with their base, they can propose this again in the House, get majority support in the Senate, and then cry to their progressive supporters that Republicans hate immigrants when passage is inevitably blocked. However, championing this bill could do more political favors for Republicans than Democrats. It will remind voters of the left’s support for open borders, and suggest that a Democratic win in 2028 would mean return to the bad old days of Biden allowing tens of thousands of illegals into the country every month. Republicans may be smart to encourage Democrats to pursue this strategy. As long as Trump opposes such a bill (which he would), it will have zero chance of enactment. All it would do is remind voters of what they rejected in 2024. Democrats have other options if they’re serious about passing an immigration bill. One is an amnesty for the so-called “Dreamers.” Another is an amnesty for farm workers. Both ideas have passed Democratic-controlled Houses with some Republican support over the last decade. The first measure would give a pathway to citizenship to illegal aliens who came to America as minors. This group was shielded from the law by President Barack Obama’s Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) executive order, which Trump revoked in his first term. The Dreamer amnesty that was passed in the House in 2019 and 2021 would have also given legal status to the family members of these protected illegals. In total, it was estimated nearly two million illegal aliens would gain amnesty under this bill. The second measure would legalize the status of illegal laborers working in agriculture. It would also make it easier for Big Ag to hire migrants and keep the now-legalized illegals working in the industry. Critics called it an “indentured servant” bill, because it would have restricted wages and made legalization dependent on working in the sector for a certain number of years. This measure received a significant level of GOP support, with 30 Republicans voting to pass it in 2021. The exact number of migrants it would have covered is difficult to estimate, since in addition to the around 1.5 million illegal farmworkers in the country, the bill’s protections would have also applied to their spouses and children. The admin appears open to these measures. Mullin says the White House is receptive to legalizing Dreamers. “If we want to have an immigration reform where we can look at DACA and figure out a way that these individuals can become maybe legal permanent citizens or something like this, that’ll be up to Congress to do that,” he told reporters. But he insisted it can’t be an “amnesty.” For the record, Republican supporters of the 2013 amnesty also insisted their bill wasn’t an amnesty. It appears “amnesty” depends on the eye of the beholder. Trump himself appeared to open the door to legalizing at least some illegal aliens in his recent 60 Minutes interview. He mentioned hotel maids and landscapers as workers he may try to shield from deportation. In a follow-up interview with CSPAN, he insisted his administration has left farm workers and some others largely alone in immigration enforcement efforts throughout his second term. “And, you know, we call them the worst of the worst,” he said in reference to the admin’s policy of focusing on criminals. “We haven’t put the same pressure on waitresses and on farm workers, et cetera. Not even close.” The agriculture industry, along with others, has repeatedly pressured the president to lay off their illegal alien workers. Trump and his officials insist they want no “amnesty,” but as mentioned, that term is open to interpretation. What seems most likely is that the White House will insist on including concessions to immigration restrictionists on the right. This is what happened during DACA negotiations in 2018. Back then, Republicans held both chambers, but Trump had much less control over his own party. There were multiple bills proposed. They differed on the number of Dreamers legalized, whether covered individuals were to be offered legalization or a pathway to full citizenship, and what additional immigration restrictions would be imposed. The admin insisted on curtailing chain migration and the diversity visa lottery, along with full funding for the border wall, in exchange for amnesty. Congress couldn’t agree on anything and no deal was passed. When Democrats take over Congress in January, they may offer similar concessions. But these would be a tough sell to lawmakers on the party’s left flank, who see any and all immigration enforcement as fascism. And the strength of the Democrats’ majorities may convince them it’s better to offer nothing but a straight amnesty and force Republicans to eat it. It’s unlikely Trump would agree to that without something in exchange. There is a more recent amnesty proposal that Democrats could dig up. The DIGNIDAD Act, introduced by Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) and Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-TX), would legalize more illegals than the Dreamer and Big Ag amnesties, but under more limited circumstances than Biden’s grand proposal. Illegal aliens who came to the U.S. before 2020 would be allowed to stay, but without a pathway to citizenship. Only Dreamers could earn that privilege, but they would have to meet certain conditions. The bill would also mandate more border security and immigration enforcement than Biden’s proposal. Salazar’s proposal gained zero traction when it was proposed during the current Congress, but it could be an idea that Democrats adopt. They can even claim it doesn’t come from them—it was crafted by a Republican! Subscribe Today Get daily emails in your inbox Democrats’ massive congressional majorities will allow them to hold the budget hostage. They could insist Trump accept some form of amnesty in exchange for funding for the government and his other projects. A few adventurous lawmakers may even propose full support for the White House ballroom to get Trump to agree to an amnesty. Whether other Democrats and Trump would support such a deal is another matter. With Trump’s recent rhetorical shift and the Democrats’ sweeping victory in the midterm elections, the odds of an amnesty bill passing are perhaps higher than at any point during Trump’s two terms in office. But the most likely outcome is still that Trump sours on this idea and moves on to other things. He’s done this several times before, and his continued rhetorical rejection of “amnesty” indicates he’ll do so again. However, if Democrats make amnesty their chief legislative priority, Trump could be forced into agreeing to a betrayal of the agenda he campaigned on. It’s a grim scenario for immigration restrictionists. But it’s not the first time we’ve faced such a situation. Amnesty looked all but certain after the 2012 election, and nothing was put into law. A big bet on cocky Democrats crafting compromises that can get Republican support is not one I would take.