Why gun debate has triggered a surprising and fiery political battle in NSW

OpinionState political editorAugust 19, 2026 — 7:30pmFor most of my life, Australia’s gun laws have been about as close to a settled issue as you could get. Strict gun control laws introduced by John Howard after the 1996 Port Arthur massacre are regularly cited as world-leading gun reforms, and an example of a government which took a principled stance in the face of orchestrated opposition for the public good.The Australian public, largely, looks at the regular shootings which take place in the US with a sense not just of horror, but bemusement – if only they could follow our lead, goes the thinking. Polling immediately after the Bondi massacre showed massive public support for stronger gun controls.NSW Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane has taken aim at Premier Chris Minns’ proposed gun buyback legislation.Ben Symons, Flavio BrancaleoneBut the backlash to the gun buyback announced by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Premier Chris Minns this week has given a sense that some of that backing may have been eroded in the months since Bondi. It raises an interesting question about whether the Howard-era consensus is being eroded in the post-context, algorithmic age of social media.The buyback, announced in the context of the Bondi massacre, followed a suite of other gun control measures passed by the Minns government, including a limit on firearms to four for individuals and 10 for primary producers and sporting shooters.The opposition Liberal Party, which supported the cap when it passed through parliament after the shooting in December, has walked away from its previous bipartisan support for the laws (Coalition partner the Nationals opposed them at the time).Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane described the buyback as “bullshit” this week and has accused the government of using it as a “smokescreen for their inaction” on broader issues of social cohesion and community safety.But in a situation like this, it is difficult to differentiate between noise and actual public opinion. How can politicians such as Minns or Sloane really grasp where the public’s mood is at in an environment where it is possible to not only bypass mainstream media sources entirely but to engage singularly with an information ecosystem tailored to and encouraging of your own biases?It is revealing in that context that Sloane this week chose to comment on a social media post by Chris Katelaris, aka “Big Chocky”, a sort of populist right-wing influencer who opines on issues such as immigration. Though he says he doesn’t endorse any political party, his One Nation content tends to be markedly sympathetic.Katelaris, who has 620,000 followers on Instagram, criticised the Liberals for voting for the gun cap when it passed through parliament in December, and Sloane replied on Tuesday to explain her volte-face.“Hey there Chocky – fair cop. But as someone said to me the other day – there’s a reason pencils have erasers,” Sloane, or her staff, wrote in the comments. “My anger about the gun buyback is genuine. My anger that our country is not safer is genuine.”How many of Big Chocky’s followers live in NSW? And how many of them care about this particular issue, or care enough to change their vote, is an unknowable proposition.Generally speaking, gun control is a fairly niche issue, but it is a major one for that subsection of the population for whom it is important. And the threat to both Labor and the Liberals is more pronounced in the current electoral context.As the Herald has reported, a disproportionate number of those voters live in electorates where One Nation hopes to do well come next March; namely the outer Sydney suburbs and Hunter region. The argument from One Nation’s corner speaks to those same algorithmic drivers. The right-wing party is pitching its opposition to the buyback as an issue of government overreach – Barnaby Joyce this week said: “Why are we buying back rifles from people who have never committed a crime? Are you going to start buying back golf clubs?”The Minns government is clearly worried. Avoiding controversial reforms of a type which might alienate, for example, an outlet such as 2GB’s right-leaning audience has been a cornerstone of Labor’s governing principle. On Wednesday, Minns faced an unusually hostile line of questioning from the station’s usually chummy breakfast host, Ben Fordham, as he conducted a media blitz to sell the reforms.Adding to that, Labor probably can’t expect to win many votes as a result of the new laws, even from people who broadly support them. While my suspicion is that most Australians are broadly in favour of making guns more difficult to access, it is not a top-line priority.The hopelessly politicised discourse post-Bondi means that for much of the population, the debate is now associated either with attempts by the right to shut down criticisms of Israel, or attempts by the left to elide antisemitism. Gun control hasn’t really registered as an issue.But while the backlash has centred on the idea that these laws won’t prevent another Bondi, there is good reason to think the government’s broader suite of reforms – including tougher categorisation of firearms, shorter gun licence terms and fewer review rights for people refused a gun – will, in fact, make a material difference.Despite Australians’ general sense of guns as an issue which has been dealt with, gun control advocates have long warned one of the consequences of the success of Howard’s reforms is that governments have rested on their laurels.When he threw his weight behind gun control laws back in December, Minns believed he was backing a popular and principled policy position. Time will tell if he was right.Michael McGowan is state political editor for The Sydney Morning Herald.More:GunsOpinionFor subscribersAnthony AlbaneseBarnaby JoyceJohn HowardOne NationIsraelInstagramChris MinnsBen FordhamKellie SloaneFrom our partners