Who will be BARMM’s first elected chief minister?

On October 30, the Bangsamoro Parliament will elect a chief minister, a crucial role in the newly formed Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) government. The main contenders for the position are Abdulraof 'Sammy Gambar' Macacua and Ahod 'Al Haj Murad' Ebrahim, with both parties needing to form coalitions to secure a majority of 41 votes in the 80-seat parliament. Local political dynamics and clan interests will significantly influence the negotiations and selection process for the chief minister, as both parties navigate potential coalitions and demands from influential families. This is AI-generated. Read the article for full context. Report any errors. On October 30, elected members of the Bangsamoro Parliament, including sectoral representatives, will choose the region’s chief minister — the head of the regional government that will lead its executive branch. The process represents a vital step in the formation of the primary authority in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) that took decades of peace negotiations before formally taking shape. Under the Bangsamoro Organic Law, the chief minister will have the sole responsibility to represent the Bangsamoro in external affairs, appoint heads of key ministries and offices, and formulate a platform that the legislative branch may approve to develop the region’s economy, among other duties. The top seat is a valuable position for many of the region’s political groups as it comes with a key membership role in the Mindanao Development Authority, the National Security Council (NSC), and the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev). There’s already plenty of speculation on who the incoming chief minister will be but most observers and analysts have narrowed it down to a tug-of-war between two main contenders: Abdulraof “Sammy Gambar” Macacua and Ahod “Al Haj Murad” Ebrahim. The parliament has had only two interim chief ministers since its inception in 2019. Former president Rodrigo Duterte appointed Murad as chief minister in February 2019, and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. replaced the latter by appointing Macacua to the position in March 2025. This has been a point of friction among members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) who recognize Murad as the “true leader of the Bangsamoro” yet still acknowledge Macacua for his work as a former chief of the MILF’s Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces (BIAF). In the months leading up to the September 14 polls, Macacua assumed leadership of the Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP), which includes former members of the Murad-led United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP). The UBJP has made it clear from the start of their campaign that Murad should take the top executive position. It is likely that the BFP will be pushing Macacua for chief minister as well. The results of the elections showed that the BFP secured 32 seats (31 BFP bets and one endorsed candidate from the Progresibong Bangsamoro Party), while the UBJP got 30. There are 80 total seats in the Bangsamoro Parliament, and both parties will need at least 41 votes to launch their chosen bet for the position of chief minister. The BARMM Grand Coalition (BGC) and its three member parties—the Bangsamoro Peoples Party, Serbisyong Inklusibo-Alyansang Progresibo (SIAP), and Al-Ittihad-Ungaya sa Kawagib Nu Bangsamoro—were able to snag 15 seats. Meanwhile, the Bangsamoro Peoples Democratic Party (Raayat Democratic Party) won one seat, and non-Moro indigenous peoples representatives secured two seats. PARTITIONS. The UBJP and BFP will have to build coalitions with other parties to form a majority of at least 41 members of parliament to secure their pick of chief minister. For Macacua, a coalition with other parties is going to be an “unavoidable situation.” But what will these coalitions look like and how will the current composition of the Bangsamoro Parliament affect who gets picked to be the chief minister? Probable scenarios “Three coalitions are possible with varying likelihoods: BFP and BGC, BGC and UBJP and BFP and UBJP,” Georgi Engelbrecht, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), told Rappler on Monday, September 28. The ICG is among several non-governmental organizations that monitored the BARMM polls. On September 22, the BGC announced in a statement that they would be seeking “common ground” with the winning political parties, vowing to work with UBJP and BFP to build a united front for the Bangsamoro Parliament. The BGC, on September 28, posted on its official social media page that its leaders met with their UBJP counterparts, showing a gathering of well-known MILF figures like Murad and Mohagher Mohammad Iqbal, along with BGC leaders Lanao del Sur Governor Mamintal “Bombit” Adiong Jr., Basilan Governor Mujiv Hataman, and former Sultan Kudarat governor Suharto “Teng” Mangudadatu. The following day, the BGC met with BFP leaders, including Macacua. However, prior to this, Adiong had pledged his support for Macacua during the BFP assembly with governors on August 16. Adiong leads SIAP, which managed to get six out of the nine seats in the parliamentary districts of Lanao del Sur. Engelbrecht explained that negotiations between the BFP and BGC would be straightforward and revolve around what each party bloc will want in terms of positions like speaker, deputy speakers and other ministerial roles. “Logically, it will be more difficult for the MILF central committee and the UBJP. Reconciling with Macacua is not impossible, but unlikely,” the analyst said. To split BGC, Engelbrecht pointed out, will be difficult as even support from Maguindanao-based clans for UBJP may not be enough. In Maguindanao del Norte, the BFP was able to secure four out of five parliamentary district seats. In Maguindanao del Sur, BFP took three out of the five seats there. UBJP only managed to secure one seat in Maguindanao del Norte and another in Maguindanao del Sur. Ali Ittihad-UKB Party took the remaining seat in Maguindanao del Sur. To make matters more difficult for the UBJP, Maguindanao del Norte Governor Tucao Mastura, Maguindanao del Sur Governor Ali Midtimbang, and Tawi-Tawi Governor Yshmael “Mang” Sali joined the BFP in August. Despite this, there is still a scenario where all three parties may coalesce. This would depend on where the talks lead, said BFP’s Ishak Mastura, member of parliament-elect from Maguindanao del Norte’s 5th District. “I am not sure if the government and other political players would be ready for term sharing, that is, allowing perhaps Murad to go first, and then Macacua taking over. But ideally, the UBJP should feel included one way or another even if it becomes opposition,” Engelbrecht said. What clans may be looking for The local dynamics of political dynasties will still factor in during the selection process of the Bangsamoro’s chief minister, especially as several members of parliament-elect share the same middle and last names. For Engelbrecht, many of the clans may demand key posts in the Bangsamoro government during negotiations with either the BFP or the UBJP. But with only two years away from the 2028 national and local elections, the clans will be extra cautious when making those demands with the regional parties. “This is important, I think, since some BFP politicians are not in great terms with some representatives of BGC since in areas such as Lanao [del Sur] or Basilan, those parties actually clashed and took votes from each other,” Engelbrecht added. According to the analyst, clan leaders would also take into account the fact that the UBJP performed at par with the BFP during the BARMM polls, and that the MILF may challenge clans at the local level in the upcoming 2028 polls. As negotiations are still ongoing before the “deadline” on October 30, it remains to be seen whether the UBJP and BFP would succeed in winning the majority in the parliament to secure their choice for chief minister. Whether it’s Murad or Macacua, whoever becomes the next chief minister won’t just inherit the top executive power of the region but also the birthing pains of a newly formed parliamentary government. — Rappler.com