Who can win Super Bowl 61? Identifying contenders outside of top tier that can hoist Lombardi Trophy

Moving past heavy hitters like the Chiefs and 49ers leaves a dangerous second tier featuring the Jaguars, Bengals and more Oct 13, 2026 at 7:00 am ET • 7 min read We are over one-fourth of the way through the 2026 NFL season, and it's going by fast. What have we learned through the first five weeks? Well, the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks are still pretty good, and the Kansas City Chiefs have reinvented themselves offensively with Kenneth Walker III. Those are three obvious Super Bowl favorites, but which teams offer some value?Let's examine the "second tier" of Super Bowl contenders. For this exercise, we will eliminate the top six favorites to hoist the Lombardi trophy over at DraftKings Sportsbook. That includes the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks. Now, we are left with teams that have odds of at least +1200. Below, we will examine the Super Bowl odds for seven teams that should make the playoffs, but could also be considered legitimate sleepers.Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook 7. Detroit Lions (+2600)The Detroit Lions actually have the second-shortest odds to win the NFC North right now, so do with that what you will. Dan Campbell just registered his first road win of the season on Sunday, as Detroit dominated the Arizona Cardinals, 45-21. However, beating up on a bad team doesn't exactly quell all concerns. The Lions may lead the NFL in sacks (20), but they still rank dead last in total defense, allowing 404.4 total yards per game. Even with the 21 points allowed on Sunday, Detroit still ranks bottom four in scoring defense with 29.6 points allowed per game. This Lions team is unfortunately reminiscent of recent Lions teams. Jared Goff commands a lethal offense headlined by Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown, but it's hard to believe Kelvin Sheppard's defense has the ability to support a legitimate contender. With that said, Sunday's performance against Arizona was good. 6. Chicago Bears (+2000)It's tough to evaluate the Chicago Bears without Caleb Williams under center. In fact, we got to watch Williams for one game, and then he was injured in a monsoon that made it nearly impossible to move the ball. That one full game was pretty impressive, though. He accounted for four total touchdowns while the offense dropped 552 total yards. When this Bears team is healthy, they are tough to keep up with offensively. Williams can sling the rock, and D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai make up one of the fiercest rushing duos in the NFL. I do have some concerns about this Bears defense, however. The Green Bay Packers were one of the worst teams in the NFL through four weeks, and then Jordan Love came out and dropped 367 passing yards, two touchdowns and 31 total points on Chicago in a 24-point blowout victory. Bears vs. NFC Northvs. OthersW-L0-23-0Points per game5.036.3Points per game differential-15.0+17.7Turnover margin-7+3 5. Denver Broncos (+2000)Out of every team on this list, the Denver Broncos are the most frustrating to watch. Take their Week 3 matchup against the Rams, for example. They go down 16-0 at halftime, only to drop 30 points in the second half and win the game. The Rams weren't the Broncos' only impressive victory this season. Don't forget they defeated Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2.Sean Payton took back play-calling duties from Davis Webb this past week, but it didn't help. Despite the come-from-behind victory against the winless Los Angeles Chargers, the Broncos recorded just 224 yards of total offense and went 1 of 12 on third downs. Yikes. Bo Nix threw for just 123 yards and one touchdown.I feel like all the pieces are in place for the Broncos to eventually become a legitimate contender. Don't forget that they were in the AFC Championship game last year, and probably would have made the Super Bowl if Nix didn't injure his ankle in the divisional round. Nix can make all the throws you want, but he's not seeing the field too well right now and is not quick enough on the trigger. It wouldn't shock me if he starts building some momentum soon. Then, he has some decent weapons around him with Courtland Sutton, Jaylen Waddle and RJ Harvey -- who entered this past week leading the entire NFL in yards after catch. Hey coach Payton, why did you throw the ball to him just once on Sunday? 4. Minnesota Vikings (+2000)The Minnesota Vikings have to be one of the most fascinating teams in the NFL. On the one hand, they are undefeated at 5-0 with a defense that ranks first in scoring and third in total defense; on the other, Kevin O'Connell's offense ranks in the bottom six with 283.0 total yards per game. The Vikings have scored the fewest touchdowns (nine) during a 5-0 start since the 2003 Carolina Panthers, per CBS Sports Research.New quarterback Kyler Murray did have his best game of the season this past Sunday against the New Orleans Saints, completing 80% of his passes for 229 yards and one touchdown while also rushing for 51 yards. Hopefully that's a sign of things to come, because the Vikings can be a legitimate Super Bowl contender if Murray morphs back into his Pro Bowl self. He has legit weaponry around him with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison T.J. Hockenson and now Odell Beckham Jr. Watch out. 3. New England Patriots (+2000)Drake Maye is back after giving the NFL quite the scare to begin the season. He threw for 374 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions and also rushed for a touchdown in the 45-17 beatdown of the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday and became the first New England Patriots quarterback to put up that kind of stat line in a single game. He's accounted for eight total touchdowns and two turnovers over the past two contests, after scoring one touchdown with seven turnovers in the first three games of the season. I also think this Patriots defense is almost being slept on. For them to do what they did to the Raiders without Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III was impressive. Then, I feel as though we've seen this defensive front take over at times. The football world isn't talking enough about the impacts rookie Gabe Jacas and Elijah Ponder have made. Ponder has 4.5 sacks over the last four games! 2. Cincinnati Bengals (+1900)It feels like we are still figuring out what the Cincinnati Bengals are. The revamped defense started hot by forcing turnovers on three of their first four possessions of the season, but surprisingly allowed 30 points in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3. What we can't deny is that the Bengals are 3-2, which is their best five-game start since 2021 -- the year they reached the Super Bowl.Joe Burrow is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, while Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are still the best receiving duo when healthy. Cincy's defense currently ranks outside the top 20, but there's a real opportunity to make a statement against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Week 7 following the bye. 1. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1200)Sunday's thrilling win in London moved the Jaguars to 4-1, but it did reveal some red flags about this team. The Jags probably should have dominated a Philadelphia Eagles squad that was without Lane Johnson, Drew Kendall, Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Jonathan Greenard, among others, but instead needed a borderline miraculous 53-yard kick return and a last-second 57-yard field goal to win.The Jaguars' red-zone offense on Sunday was embarrassing. Jacksonville went 0-3 in the red zone vs. Philly, including two trips where Liam Coen's offense couldn't score from the 1-yard line. With that being said, if the Jaguars can clean some of this stuff up, this team could make a serious run. Trevor Lawrence is a legitimate franchise quarterback, and he has a nice supporting cast in Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, Josh Cameron and sometimes Brian Thomas Jr.. Bhayshul Tuten is better than I expected as a lead back, and then Anthony Campanile's unit ranks No. 1 against the run and is tied for second in turnover differential.This is the best team in the AFC South, and no longer some sleeper in the AFC. Super Bowl oddsTeamOddsLos Angeles Rams+650San Francisco 49ers+750Baltimore Ravens+800Buffalo Bills+850Kansas City Chiefs+900Seattle Seahawks+1100Jacksonville Jaguars+1200Cincinnati Bengals+1900New England Patriots+2000Minnesota Vikings+2000Denver Broncos+2000Chicago Bears+2000Detroit Lions+2600Dallas Cowboys +3000Philadelphia Eagles+4000Houston Texans+4500Green Bay Packers+4500Atlanta Falcons+6000Carolina Panthers+7400Indianapolis Colts+8000Pittsburgh Steelers+9000Las Vegas Raiders+9000Washington Commanders+10000Tampa Bay Buccaneers+12500New York Giants+12500New Orleans Saints+15000Los Angeles Chargers+20000Cleveland Browns+25000New York Jets+30000Arizona Cardinals+50000Tennessee Titans+100000Miami Dolphins+100000