While Trump and Bibi bomb Iran, Putin will subjugate Europe

Yemen’s Houthis now command Perim Island and both shores of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This explosive geography triggers immediate economic shockwaves: following the fall of Mocha, Saudi Red Sea crude exports could plunge by 95% under Abdul-Malik al Houthi’s embargoes. No other node in Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” has successfully seized a global chokepoint. By controlling both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, Tehran holds a vice on Asia-Europe energy. This reality will inevitably force Washington to strike the Houthis, triggering an Iranian reprisal that draws Israel into a decisive, multitheater fray. The definitive blueprint for this conflict is April 18, 1988. When an Iranian mine struck the USS Samuel B. Roberts, Washington retaliated immediately with “Operation Praying Mantis,” crushing half of Iran’s navy. Modern strategists obsess over “Operation Desert Storm” while forgetting the last time America actually fought Tehran over sea lanes. Hence, ceding regional maritime supremacy to Iran and its proxies repeats that precise historical blunder.Domestically, the Trump administration will likely weaponize the inevitable Red Sea strikes for midterm political oxygen. Consider the setup: The administration has locked down massive concessions for North American Blue Energy Partners across Venezuelan fields — holding 65 billion barrels with a 35% Pentagon stake — while locking in the “Infinite Life” Greenland security pact to expand American Arctic basing. Pairing these massive geopolitical trophies with a maritime campaign marketed as the antidote to high domestic gasoline prices creates a compelling narrative for voters punishing his administration over groceries, rent, and inflation. Yet, domestic political realities loom. If voter anxieties over the economy and the expanded conflict drag down approval numbers ahead of the midterm elections, the administration faces the distinct possibility of surrendering Congress to the opposition. Should that clock run out, incoming opposition-led committees will aggressively leverage subpoena power to challenge war funding, launch relentless prosecutions, and attempt to dismantle the executive’s foreign policy legacy.Concurrently, a Russian lunge into the Baltics under a “compatriot pretext” would fundamentally shatter European complacency. In places like Latvia, ethnic Russians make up nearly a quarter of the population, and a significant portion of that demographic still fundamentally trusts Moscow. Thus, an Article 5 conflict on Baltic soil will force three brutal realities. First, Europe will have to choose between abandoning the post-1945 pacifism that disarmed the continent or watching its eastern flank collapse. Second, European capitals that previously vilified Israel will probably have to embrace Jerusalem as an indispensable ally, because of the Israelis’ cutting-edge signals intelligence and winter-ready missile defense architecture. Finally, domestic Islamist networks drawing host-state welfare will face a sudden loyalty test. Any street betrayal will expose the operational enemy within, spark focused civil clashes, and bankrupt the hollow ‘Palestinism’ that long ago replaced strategy with pageantry.MUST A HOUTHI DRONE HIT MECCA BEFORE SAUDI ARABIA WAKES UP?Ergo, Washington and Jerusalem must immediately prepare to exploit these shifting geopolitical fault lines. To shatter the “Axis of Resistance,” the United States and Israel must force Europe’s hand by establishing a joint “Chokepoint Intelligence Network” and delivering a fifth-column stress map to Western capitals. By pre-positioning naval UAVs and routing a combined data feed from Eilat, Haifa, and U.S. regional assets into Saudi, Emirati, and Eritrean nodes, they can pipe a real-time maritime picture directly to Baltic commands. In tandem, allied intelligence must audit the Islamist cells poised to sabotage European ports during a Russian lunge, exchanging this critical data for a total European cutoff of UNRWA funding, unconditional diplomatic protection for Israel against lawfare at the U.N., a joint Western mandate designating the IRGC a global terrorist entity, and an immediate European freeze on all Iranian state-owned commercial assets. The strategic nexus is absolute: Europe’s internal vulnerability is inextricably bound to its maritime paralysis in the Red Sea. Should Russia strike the Baltics, Washington and Jerusalem must force a passive Europe to absorb the full cost of its appeasement if it wants external support. If European capitals value survival, they must back it with credible measures. Securing the Baltics requires no Brussels diplomacy. It demands the permanent, kinetic neutralization of Iran’s regional architecture.Jose Lev Alvarez is an American–Israeli scholar specializing in international security policy. A multilingual veteran of the IDF special forces and the U.S. Army, he holds three master’s degrees and is completing a Ph.D. in Intelligence and Global Security in the Washington, D.C., area.