What next for Venezuela?

After almost six and a half years abroad, Armando Armas flew home to Venezuela this week. The first thing Armas did was sit down at a family table.Armando, 44, is a lawyer trained at the Universidad Catolica Andres Bello. He ran Voluntad Popular, the opposition party whose leaders were jailed or exiled almost to a person in Anzoategui. On July 5, 2017, pro-government thugs, known as colectivos, besieged the legislature for hours during a session marking Independence Day. Armas was left with wounds to his head and his left eye, and one of several parliamentary deputies was carried out to the hospital. He went into exile as the persecution widened.His return was made possible by the U.S. capture of dictator Nicolas Maduro in early January. Two days later, Delcy Rodriguez, Maduro’s vice president, was sworn in as acting president. Washington has since insisted that the transition will come, but the White House has given no clear deadline. Rodriguez has so far delivered enough to keep the Trump administration satisfied. She announced an amnesty in February, phased prisoner releases, and made public assurances that exiles would be received with open arms. Armas is one of several former deputies who tested that pledge in recent weeks. “I have mixed feelings,” he said, talking about what Venezuela now looks like. “People are slowly changing towards a more open sort of interaction. My family, my cousins, they’re still half afraid of what they say. But before, they were cautious about hanging out with me, [that’s no longer the case].”Seven million people left this country after a quarter century of socialism that plunged it into one of the biggest economic crises any country has seen during peacetime. The economy imploded, emptying even the gas stations of a nation sitting on the world’s largest oil reserves. Roads, utilities, and hospitals were left to rot.Rodriguez has made the return of the diaspora the showpiece of her transition. But Armas is uncertain what will happen next. “On my return I have found that some of the hope brought by the dictator’s arrest this January remains”, he explained. “Yet it’s fading. The population is still waiting for improvements in standards of living and for clear signs that the transition to democracy has begun.”On the way home, he passed tent camps along the road, sheltering families left displaced by the June earthquake that left more than 6,000 dead and tens of thousands without a home. Lecheria, his hometown, looks shabbier than he remembers. Asked whether he fears the government or the colectivos, he says no. Then, in a cafe, he came face to face with the prosecutor who once went after him. “This was the guy who was in charge of taking my mom out of our house,” he said. “That was kind of shocking. But I contained myself, did not say anything to him.”The people like the prosecutor who ran the repression machine for Chavistas are still in place, and most of them still hold power on paper but have less confidence to use it. American pressure acts as a deterrent, at least for now.Armas notes that the “Political climate is less risky now that the U.S. is in charge of the situation,” pointing to the lack of abductions and arrests as an example. However, he pointed out that around 300 political prisoners remain behind bars. “It is urgent to release all political prisoners and restore respect for freedom of expression and private property. We must rebuild the institutional fabric, public services and infrastructure so the country can offer the minimum needed to foster investment and create jobs”.The opposition’s most popular figure remains outside the country. Washington sidelined Maria Corina Machado in January and chose to work with Rodriguez, and she has been left out of the talks that now set the terms of the transition. Machado has promised she will go back to Venezuela “very soon,” yet so far she has not made the move, leading to some criticism within the opposition.Besides the pressure from the outside of the country, Rodriguez has to deal with difficulties at home. She and her brother are competing for influence with Diosdado Cabello, the former soldier whose reach runs through the military and the security services. That rivalry now shapes politics behind closed doors. Cabello shows his strength through public mobilization campaigns and the colectivos, and his assertiveness has pushed Rodriguez to reshuffle the Cabinet, removing his cronies to limit how far into the government he can reach.Still, it is unclear how long Rodriguez will stay in power. Her constitutional mandate has long expired. Last month, the government and part of the opposition met and agreed to replace judges on the Supreme Court and to scrap the laws used to seize property and jail critics. The talks are set to continue at the end of this month, but Machado has not taken part in the process.WHITE HOUSE STAYS QUIET AS UK LEADS 11 OTHER COUNTRIES WITH SANCTIONS ON ISRAELI ‘SETTLER TERRORISTS’Along with this, Maduro’s heir has delivered on American demands. She opened the oil fields to American companies, got frozen money moving again, and signed a new energy deal with the Trump administration. If Rodriguez manages to get the lights back on, the water running, and the oil money flowing, she may become a formidable force.Yet, with the dictator now gone, Armas says the country needs a new vision. “Before, our struggle was about terrorists against pro-democratic forces,” Armas said. “Now we need new ideas; we must discuss policies, transitional strategies, and economic plans. There’s a lack of leadership capable of doing that. That’s one of the main challenges of the democratic opposition.”