‘Use the nuclear option’: What happens next after the Democrats’ blue tsunami?

As Tuesday night’s midterm election results rolled in, with increasingly bad news for Donald Trump and his Republican Party, the president was holed up at the White House watching Fox News with his aides.One of those aides, communications specialist Jason Miller, was with the president until after midnight – by which time the extent of the drubbing had become clear.US President Donald Trump’s brand has taken severe hit after the Republican Party was swept away at the midterm elections. Marija ErcegovacWith Democrats to take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, depriving Trump of his power over Congress, the president told Miller what must happen next: “Use the nuclear option and get our things done.”The Democrats, Trump said, will use their newfound power “every single day for the next two years”. This Congress, now entering a lame duck session, only has weeks left.Dozens of adjectives have been applied to what transpired on Tuesday: a blue tsunami, an ass-kicking, an extinction level event, “complete armageddon”.Democrats did not just retake control of the House of Representatives, as expected. Nor did they squeak home in the Senate, which was considered a longshot earlier in the year. Rather, they swept to power, picking up about 40 seats in the House, despite rampant gerrymandering, and at least seven in the other chamber.So powerful was the landslide that Democrats flipped not only target seats in North Carolina, Ohio and Maine, but Texas, South Carolina, Iowa, Kansas and possibly even Mississippi – a deep south state that has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since 1982.While there is a tendency towards hyperbole in the immediate aftermath of an election, there can be no doubt that the emphatic verdict delivered by the American people will shape the next two months, the next two years, and the future of Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.Democratic winners (l-r): Annie Andrews, Adam Hamilton, Abdul El-Sayed and James Talarico.Matthew Absalom-WongThe next two monthsMiller, a longtime Trump staffer who returned to the White House in a communications role a few months ago, joined MAGA influencer Steve Bannon on his TV/podcast War Room the morning after the election.As he recounted Trump’s message from the night before, he made an overt threat to outgoing Republicans on Capitol Hill who have lost their seats. It was the same threat Trump’s team made in 2019 when the president faced an impeachment trial.“We made it clear to Republicans on the Hill that if you try to back away from the American people, from this movement, your political career is finished,” Miller said.“We have some people whose political careers are finished, and they’re on the way out. What everyone needs to realise is every single one of these senators, every single one of these House members who are leaving, they have some board that they want to be on. They have some contract they want to get, some corporation.“We have to let them know: they’re not going to get within a football field of that dream job or that golden parachute unless they hold the line.”Trump still has a number of judicial appointments before the Senate – part of a broad push to move the courts to the right – and vacancies that he could fill. But the real fight would be over cabinet appointments and potentially Supreme Court judges.Speculation has raged in Washington for months about the future of Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth. The former Fox News host has led a turbulent department, clashing with senior staff and instigating high-profile dismissals. He is also, along with Trump, the face of the unpopular Iran war (although the Pentagon has not held a news conference for six months).Speaking to ABC News America’s Jonathan Karl on Thursday, Trump acknowledged receiving calls from people unhappy with Hegseth, and agreed it would be easier to replace him while the GOP still controlled the Senate. But Hegseth was doing “a very good job”, Trump said. “I have every intention of keeping him.”Hegseth will face impeachment proceedings as soon as this week. Outgoing Republican congressman Thomas Massie, a fierce Trump opponent, plans to trigger a vote on his resolution to impeach the defence secretary. He noted it would be much “gentler” than an impeachment trial with hearings, which the Democrats would surely seek next year.Meanwhile, Hegseth is reportedly interested in filling a Senate vacancy for the state of Tennessee. Last month, he attended a football game with Republican senator Marsha Blackburn, who is leaving to become the state’s next governor. She ducked questions about it this week.Pete Hegseth could be the next high-profile casualty of the Trump administration.APSeveral sources said Secretary of State Marco Rubio would likely leave the administration, though the timing is unclear. If he were intent on mounting a campaign to become the Republicans’ presidential nominee, he might ordinarily resign in the first half of 2027.However, in an interview with The New York Times on Thursday, Rubio dismissed suggestions he was planning to quit. Working a full-term for Trump had “always been my plan”, he said. He also acknowledged war had been a factor in the election outcome, joining Vice President JD Vance, Texas senator Ted Cruz, Florida governor Ron DeSantis and others in commenting publicly on it.A wildcard for the lame duck Congress session could be a retirement from the Supreme Court. Conservative justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito are in their 70s, and given the size of the Democrat gains in the Senate, this could be Republicans’ last chance for a while to confirm a conservative successor.Both have indicated they are likely to stay; Alito said last month he intended to see out the term, and Thomas would become the longest-serving justice ever in 2028.Whatever business comes up, the instructions from the White House are clear. “This is the time to wake up and smell the coffee,” Miller said on Bannon’s War Room. “You have one job: that is to get everything on President Trump’s agenda through in these limited days that we have. Otherwise, your careers are in the crosshairs.”The next two yearsFor Democrats, the resounding election win delivers more power – and thus more responsibility – than most imagined. They now have both chambers of Congress at their disposal, albeit with a Republican president who enjoys the power of veto.At an event in Washington on Thursday (US time), the Democrats’ Senate leader Chuck Schumer laid out his interpretation of the party’s victory. Tacticians had decided early on to focus their message to Americans on three elements: cost, chaos and corruption.That must guide what they do in office, he said: “Lower costs, make the government work for you, clean up the corruption.”Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has appealed to Republicans to work with the new majority.Allison RobbertHakeem Jeffries, who will become the first black speaker of the House of Representatives, said the Democrats’ priorities included reversing Medicaid cuts, extending the Affordable Care Act tax credits, ending the Iran war and stopping Trump’s tariffs.It’s far from clear whether Democrats can use their congressional power to end the war. The obvious way is through the purse strings: the Pentagon is currently using funds allocated by the One Big Beautiful Bill, but Trump will have to go back to Congress for more money soon.The lame duck session will also consider two major items of business: a continuing resolution to keep the government funded and avoid another shutdown, and the National Defence Authorisation Act – effectively, America’s core defence budget. Working with Republicans, Democrats could use either to try to extract concessions on the Iran war.House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaks during a watch party at a hotel on Capitol Hill in Washington.APIn 2007, after a disastrous midterm election for George W. Bush’s Republicans, Democrats passed a military funding bill that set a deadline for troops to withdraw from Iraq. Bush vetoed it, and Democrats eventually folded, passing a budget with no deadline.Trump has given mixed messages about how he might approach his diminishing power. He embraced the moniker “Mr Veto”, while saying he believed he could work with Democrats to get stuff done, including on immigration. After weeks of him vetoing everything, he argued, Democrats would come to the table.Schumer, meanwhile, appealed to Republicans to work with the new majority on four issues: the war, tariffs, banning members of Congress and the president from trading stocks, and “ensuring Americans’ electricity bills won’t go up just because a data centre can pay less”.“Americans want us to act on these issues, and we are going to do it – with you or without you,” he said at the Centre for American Progress in Washington on Thursday.Like others, Schumer cautioned interpreting the election as a full endorsement of the Democrats. Americans voted out of frustration with Trump and the GOP, he said, “not out of love with the Democratic Party”.“Many Americans from across the political spectrum are still sceptical of our party, and that’s OK. We are fortunate to have the opportunity to win back their trust.”The biggest tension among Democrats in Congress concerns whether to impeach the US president for a third time, and how much time and energy to expend on investigations of Trump, his family and his government, relative to kitchen table issues. This has broadly been reduced to “accountability” versus “affordability”.Robert Garcia, the incoming chair of the powerful House Oversight Committee, posted two words on Tuesday night as the blue wave rolled in: “LAWYER UP.”Later, at a news conference, he outlined four major areas of investigation: the personal enrichment of Trump and his family, the Department of Homeland Security and ICE under former secretary Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski, corporate corruption and the Trump administration, and the Jeffrey Epstein saga.“The idea that so many folks have gotten away with not testifying in front of Congress [about Epstein] I think is shameful,” Garcia said.“We’re going to take on the Trump crime family. We are going to ensure that both Noem and Lewandowski face accountability and justice.” Democrats also had many questions for top Trump adviser Stephen Miller, he said.White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis suggested Democrats would be squandering the chance for bipartisan progress if they acted on Garcia’s plans.“As the president has said, he’s willing to work with anyone to continue delivering victories for hardworking Americans,” Bis said. “If Democrats choose to pursue sham investigations and radical left policies, they are choosing to work against the American people.”The new Congress needs to hold oversight hearings and expose the corruption of this administration.JB Pritzker, the billionaire Democratic governor of IllinoisA White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, added: “If crazed Democrats want to abuse their power and politicise their process of investigations, subpoenas and destroying lives, they should be reminded that we still control the federal government and all of its powers.”Garcia insisted his drive for accountability was not at odds with improving the lives of ordinary Americans and the cost of living. “There is a link,” he said. “If we want to actually bring costs down, then we actually have to take on corruption as well.”JB Pritzker, the billionaire Democratic governor of Illinois and a potential presidential contender, told the CAP event that Democrats could walk and chew gum at the same time.“The new Congress needs to hold oversight hearings and expose the corruption of this administration,” he said. “I’m not suggesting that necessarily leads to impeachment. Maybe it does.”Whatever happens in Congress, Trump will still retain enormous executive power, which he has proven more than willing to use and maximise. Will his last two years in office be more lame duck or raging bull? Former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull thinks a bit of both: “A raging bull with a limp.”The future of MAGARecriminations from Tuesday’s election results are already fuelling conjecture about the 2028 presidential race. The rout is widely considered ominous for JD Vance, who quickly blamed the war in Iran, and argued that it was not worth the electoral cost.Trump also believes the war played a role, except that he believes it was just about petrol prices, whereas Vance sees it as tied to isolationist, America First resistance to foreign wars and US military and financial support for Israel.Vance believes capturing that wing of the MAGA movement is vital for his presidential ambitions. But as Newt Gingrich, the former Republican speaker, opined on X: “A good bit of the luster has come off the bloom.”“The scale of the Republican defeat is so great that it makes the race for the GOP presidential nomination wide open,” he said. “The number of people who want to draft Secretary of State Marco Rubio is staggering.”Still, there are plenty of Republicans who do not see the result as a damning indictment on Trump and MAGA. They point out there is always finger-pointing at the president after a midterm defeat. And they share Trump’s election synopsis: when he’s not on the ballot, Republicans don’t do as well.US President Donald Trump signs the last piece of steel to be used in construction of the White House ballroom on Wednesday (US time).Getty ImagesIndeed, it’s notable that at the 2022 midterms – just a few months after petrol prices reached their peak in the Biden administration – Republicans did relatively poorly, gaining just nine House seats. Trump was not on the ballot and wasn’t campaigning in that year.“President Trump has an ability to win over independent, undecided voters – former Democrat voters, working-class voters and the MAGA base – in a way that no other candidate can,” says Republican strategist Matt Terrill, who was chief-of-staff for Rubio’s presidential campaign.“That’s something the Republican Party needs to figure out because they cannot just rely on President Trump being the one who keeps states like Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in play.”By promising to deliver a more affordable country, Democrats have also created the same expectations of price relief that plagued Trump and his Republicans. And Terrill suggests the Democrats’ left flank – congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, or Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan for example – will be emboldened by the extent of the blue wave. “I believe there’s a strong chance the Democrats will overplay their hand now,” he says.Power shifts. It always has. Seasons change, people come and go, and none of it is new.US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy JrMomentum can be fleeting. Democrats suffered a huge loss at the 2010 midterm elections in Barack Obama’s first term – 63 seats in the House – but clawed back seats in 2012 and easily retained the presidency. Americans tossed Trump out of the White House in 2020, but were ready to re-elect him four years later.“In America, we date politicians, we don’t marry them,” said Libby Cantrill, head of public policy at Pimco, on Bloomberg television.Nonetheless, the Democrats’ seismic midterm result gives them a healthy cushion going into 2028, making it difficult for Republicans to win back control, even if they keep the White House.No one can truly predict what will happen next. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr said he woke up after the election drubbing and cooked a breakfast of steak and eggs, before landing on a zen interpretation of the result.“Power shifts. It always has. Seasons change, people come and go, and none of it is new.”Get a note directly from our foreign correspondents on what’s making headlines around the world. Sign up for our weekly What in the World newsletter.