US withdrawal from Iraq will be watched closely by Iran-backed militias, Kurds - analysis

Iranian-backed militias and Iran have already targeted the Kurdistan region with more than 1,000 drone and missile attacks since February 2026, and it will be vulnerable if the US withdraws.Follow us on GoogleDamaged buildings after, what the security sources say, a drone struck an arms depot in an attack on the headquarters of an Iranian Kurdish opposition group in which two fighters were wounded, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in the town of Dekala in Iraq's Kurdistan region March 4, 2026. (photo credit: REUTERS/STRINGER)SEPTEMBER 6, 2026 18:22The US is to meet a September 30 deadline for withdrawing from Iraq, Kurdish media outlet Rudaw reported on Sunday.It was one of several reports that indicate the US is committed to taking away air defense systems from the Kurdistan Region. The full details of this are unclear and hard to confirm. What matters is not necessarily if it is accurate, but that people will think it is happening.Rudaw wrote, “The United States will withdraw its defense systems from the Kurdistan Region along with its remaining troops by the end of September under an agreement with the Iraqi government, a senior Iraqi security official said on Sunday.”The report noted that “Qasim al-Araji, security advisor to Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, told Rudaw that the withdrawal includes all defense systems, including remaining ones in Erbil, adding that the phased removal of troops and military equipment has already begun.”Araji said, “On September 30, coalition forces will completely withdraw from Iraq, and this is the implementation of the agreement made between the previous government and the global coalition…The American side has expressed its full readiness to implement the agreement and withdraw by the specified deadline.”SMOKE RISES from the site of a drone crash on the outskirts of Erbil, Iraq, March 12, 2026. (credit: REUTERS/KHALID AL-MOUSILY)US pressuring Iraq to control militiasThis comes as the US is also pressuring Iraq to rein in Iranian-backed militias and disarm them. So far, none of the militias have disarmed. It doesn’t seem possible that any weapons will be collected in September. If no militias were disarmed in the last months, why would they hand over their guns now?Instead, what they will do is put more conditions on disarmament. Some may also claim they already put their guns under “state control.” Most of the militias are part of the Baghdad-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). As such, they will claim the PMF controls their weapons already. This is a kind of bait and switch.Rudaw said there is progress with the militias. “Araji said discussions with the armed groups were moving in a positive direction.”Araji said, “After the withdrawal of the coalition, an agreement will be reached on a comprehensive mechanism to place all weapons under the control of the state and the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.” He added that “discussions are proceeding very well and there is positive understanding.”It’s worth noting that the militias were supposed to hand over their weapons by September 30. Now the handover is overdue. This is how the can gets kicked down the road.For the Kurdistan Region, this is a problem because the militias and Iran have already targeted the region with more than 1,000 drone and missile attacks since February 2026.Iran has even targeted the offices of the Kurdish Regional Government’s prime minister and president. Iran is indicating that it wants to strike at dissident groups in the Kurdistan Region and also that it can do as it wants.Not clear if air defenses will remainIn the past, reports said that US and coalition air defenses had downed some of the drone attacks. It is not clear if some of the defenses will actually remain. The US has a large consulate in Erbil. It is logical that the US will want to defend it. The consulate, as well as a UAE consulate, has been targeted in the past.Yet, Rudaw said, “the US has already relocated eight Patriot surface-to-air missile batteries to Jordan, while Britain has transferred its Rapid Sentry system to Cyprus.”The report added context, noting the “US and British forces have defended Erbil airport and surrounding areas using anti-missile and counter-drone systems stationed at the base. Despite those defenses, at least five American soldiers and contractors have been killed in attacks in recent months, Rudaw understands.”The report also names five Iranian-backed militias as refusing to disarm. These include Kataib Hezbollah, Sayyid al-Shuhada and Harakat al-Nujaba. Kataib Hezbollah is believed to be the most dangerous in terms of its threat and close ties to the IRGC.In 2020, when the US killed IRGC Quds Force head Qasem Soleimani, he was riding with Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Muhandis was also killed.Kataib Hezbollah killed three Americans in Jordan in a drone attack in 2024. It has also attacked Saudi Arabia. The militias, such as the three mentioned above, often play a role in the “Islamic Resistance” in Iraq, which has carried out attacks on Israel, the US, and others in recent years.Follow us on Google