U.S. payrolls rose 162,000 in August, much more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.1%

The U.S. economy added jobs at a brisk pace in August, reversing a summer slowdown in hiring, while the unemployment rate held steady.Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 162,000 for the month while the unemployment rate, as expected, held steady at 4.1%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a payrolls increase of 53,000.August's total was the strongest monthly gain since March."Net, net, the labor market is alive and well and generating thousands of new jobs to help keep economic growth squarely in the plus column," said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds.The report was consistent with what Federal Reserve officials have called a stable labor market, and likely turns the central bank's focus to next week's reports on consumer and producer prices as the final determinant heading into the interest rate decision in less than two weeks.Stock market futures moved mostly lower after the release while Treasury yields, particularly at the short end where Fed policy has its greatest impact, rose sharply. Following the consensus beat on the report, markets edged toward the possibility of a rate hike for the Fed. Traders were still pricing in about 58% odds of a quarter percentage point increase at the central bank's policy meeting Sept. 15-16, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool."An upside surprise in payrolls will likely ramp up concerns about a rate hike, but that outcome is in the hands of next week's inflation numbers," said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. "If those come in cooler than expected, the Fed will likely feel comfortable discounting potentially inflationary signals coming out of the labor market."Policymakers generally watch the unemployment rate more closely for the health of the labor market, and that has held consistent for the past several years and is actually down 0.2 percentage point from a year ago. There was good news on that front as well, as the jobless level held steady even with a 0.2 percentage point increase in the labor force participation rate, a measure of those either employed or looking for jobs. The household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed an increase of employment totaling 569,000 and a surge of 683,000 into the labor force. An alternative measure of unemployment that counts discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons fell to 7.7%, down 0.2 percentage point to its lowest level since June 2025.In addition to the solid August gain, prior months saw upward revisions: July showed a gain of 21,000 jobs, swinging positive from a loss of 23,000, while June was revised up to a gain of 31,000, or an increase of 11,000.Unlike previous months, job gains were fairly broad-based.Restaurants and bars led with 59,000 new jobs, while government education rose by 42,000 and manufacturing contributed 16,000. Health care, the primary engine of job growth, saw a gain of just 13,000, compared with the monthly average of 32,000 over the prior 12 months.There was some evidence of artificial intelligence hitting employment rolls: Information-related industries reported a loss of 23,000, putting the 12-month average at a loss of 8,000.Average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, in line with the consensus, while the annual increase of 3.1% was 0.1 percentage point ahead of expectations. Market expectations for where rates are headed have swung in recent days.Following remarks last week by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, traders priced in a strong expectation that the Federal Open Market Committee would hike its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point when it meets Sept. 15-16.However, remarks this week from Governor Christopher Waller, as well as other officials, have made the outlook less certain. The FOMC has not adjusted the federal funds rate since three cuts in the latter part of 2025.Policymakers have expressed a far greater concern with inflation, which has run above the Fed's 2% target for the past 5½ years. The jobs report sets the stage for the BLS readings on producer and consumer prices, scheduled for Thursday and Friday, respectively. Waller said he would be in favor of staying on hold as long as the reports show inflation moderating on a monthly basis. New York Fed President John Williams earlier this week told CNBC that he is in "wait-and-see" mode on the data, while Governor Michael Barr also indicated that as long as inflation is "moderating," he would be content to stay on hold.However, both Barr and Waller said they'd be ready to raise if the data doesn't cooperate.