US-China: Carving up the World

The recent United Nations gathering showcased Donald Trump, who completely rejected the institution’s founding concept by suggesting he may “annihilate” Iran, keep Venezuela’s oil because “to the victor belong the spoils,” and then gloated about his security arrangement in Greenland. Fortunately, he displayed a new, positive attitude toward Ukraine and its President Zelensky. This is because he likes winners, and Ukrainians are decimating Russia’s military and oil industry.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. In his speech, he predicted that war will end “more quickly than people understand,” good news if true. But geopolitically speaking, the UN has become irrelevant and was overshadowed by a more consequential gathering that took place this week between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Unlike the UN with all its flaws and complications, these two giants’ negotiations will shape the world order because of their unmatched economic, technological, and military leverage. Washington rolls out the red carpet for China’s leader, starting with a state dinner for 125 that includes the first ladies and business leaders from both nations. Their last bilateral summit was in Beijing in May, when they agreed to establish a “Constructive Strategic and Stable Relationship” and concentrated on stabilizing trade relations. Now on the table are: AI guardrails, Taiwan, Iran, impending sanctions on China’s purchases of Russian oil, North Korea, critical minerals, rare earths, semiconductors, a delayed $14-billion arms sale to Taiwan, and China’s commitments to buying American oil, agricultural products, and planes, notably 200 Boeing jets worth up to $19 billion. Other Topics of Interest Bipartisan Senators Urge Trump Not to Bring Putin to Miami Fourteen US senators urged Trump to withdraw Putin’s G20 invitation, warning it could legitimize Moscow during Russia’s war on Ukraine. Trump the politician is the same as Trump the businessman. Both sides have plenty of economic and geopolitical leverage over one another, and here’s the state of play:China’s biggest bargaining chip is rare earths and critical minerals, which it controls globally in terms of production. These are essential to the manufacture of modern electronics, weaponry, defense systems, and clean energy systems, namely batteries and solar panels.China also has geopolitical “cards” because of its relationships with Iran and Russia. Americans and Europeans have been asking it to put pressure on both regimes to stop their hostilities, but unfortunately the leverage works in reverse. China is a big customer and supplier to both. Even so, Trump has lately pushed China more than once to use his leverage over Vladimir Putin. Xi publicly supports a “fair, lasting and binding peace agreement” and stated China’s readiness to promote this, but is against penalizing or coercing Moscow.On the other hand, America’s biggest bargaining chip is access to its gigantic market as well as to its advanced semiconductors and related technologies. China cannot afford to lose this and is aware that an angry Trump can deploy trade weapons such as tariffs, export bans, and restrictive legislation.America’s other leverage is that in May it delayed arms sales to Taiwan to please Beijing. In return, America was able to sell China more oil, defense, aviation, and farm products.According to a Chinese expert, Beijing recently gained leverage by cutting back on Russian and Iranian oil, which has kept prices (and US gasoline costs) down. “I see that restraint partly as a favour to Trump – reciprocity for Trump’s restraint on issues that Beijing cares about,” said the expert in The South China Morning Post. The quid pro quo Beijijng wants would be that the US president continues to put on hold arms sales to Taiwan. This wouldn’t be difficult, given the Pentagon’s weapons shortages because of the Iran war.The two superpowers have opposite approaches and strategies when it comes to international diplomacy and nation-state relationships. Trump doesn’t want, or believe he needs, partnerships. As a result, he doesn’t work well with traditional allies in Europe and around the world. He pushes them around, belittles them, and makes one-sided demands.“That came as a surprise… that has come as a profound opportunity for Beijing,” said Julian Gewirtz in Foreign Policy, who worked on China policy under President Joe Biden. Trump the politician is the same as Trump the businessman. He was always a sole proprietor and remains that way as President.By contrast, Xi has been on a hectic “road show” for weeks in the lead-up to this summit, garnering attention, support, and making new alliances. Between his campaign and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing is beating Washington at the superpower game. “Beijing can deepen and expand its influence across Eurasia and across the Global South, and can build institutions around its own priorities, and then arrive in Washington to have the American president throw him a lavish reception,” said Gewirtz.In other words, Xi is a better “marketer,” crisscrossing the globe from Egypt to India and other countries that have been contested between the superpowers for years. Between his campaign and China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing is beating Washington at the superpower game.However, the most important issue is not popularity but how the world’s two technological superpowers will devise safety and monitoring systems to prevent “catastrophic misuse or loss of control” in the future.Trump’s finance and China “expert,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, met for days with China’s vice premier before the summit to start the process of devising a system of goals, threat reduction measures, and setting up a hotline for crises.Arguably, these are critical diplomatic discussions for humanity, and Trump, as usual, is not gracious or accommodating when it comes to AI. He recently told reporters: “We’re leading China in AI very substantially. By the way, we have the president of China coming on the 24th. That’ll be very exciting. Great, love to have him. A lot of good things to discuss, very, very productive things to discuss with President Xi.”American and Chinese summitry ripples through the global economy and politics more than any negotiations or actions taken by the United Nations, with its cumbersome and useless rules and regulations.All 193 UN members realize the organization no longer works but don’t know how to repair it. But in this session, Turkey’s President Erdogan called for the abolition of the veto power held by the five nations in the Security Council that created the organization: The US, UK, France, China, and Russia. This privilege has completely crippled the Security Council and the organization, preventing it from sending peacekeepers to regions to prevent full-scale wars, to stop fighting, or to save victims.A case in point is that Ukraine this week asked the UN to intervene to save the lives of 2,000 Ukrainians held in a frontline city where Russia has blocked food, water, or aid. They will die without help, but their rescue by the UN won’t happen because Russia will veto it.The organization is not only irrelevant but damaging unless reformed or replaced. The reality is that there are only two sheriffs “in town,” and neither one is worried about the rest.Read the original in the author’s blog, “Diane Francis on America and the World,” here. The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.