US Air Force speeds Reaper successor timeline after Iran losses

The U.S. Air Force is accelerating its timeline for a cheaper, more expendable successor to the MQ-9A Reaper, officials said Sept. 3, after combat losses left the service unwilling to wait out the rest of the drone’s life.Lt. Gen. Christopher Niemi, the Air Force’s chief modernization officer, told reporters at the Pentagon that a follow-on was already under discussion as the MQ-9 aged out. “Although we have plenty of MQ-9As today, we are going through them at a rate that is concerning to us,” he said, according to Breaking Defense, which covered the briefing.Defense Daily reported that Air Force Secretary Troy Meink directed the acceleration, and that the fiscal 2031 target of 20 mission-ready aircraft could be pulled forward by about two years.In May, Lt. Gen. David Tabor told the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Airland the fleet was down to about 135 aircraft, roughly 54 below the service’s 189-aircraft floor. Niemi did not update the inventory. Backfilling the fleet is difficult. General Atomics shut down MQ-9A production in 2025, and Tabor said the service was pursuing a short-term buy of existing MQ-9A airframes in fiscal 2026. Niemi said Sept. 3 that budget constraints make buying a large number of upgraded MQ-9B SkyGuardians unrealistic. It is a misconception, he said, that the Air Force could write a check and take delivery of 100 aircraft.A Congressional Research Service Insight updated May 13 cited an April 9 news report of 24 Reapers lost since military operations against Iran began in February, and said it was unclear whether the Pentagon had given Congress an accounting. The Washington Post reported Aug. 13, citing three U.S. officials, that at least 45 had been lost, roughly 25% of the fleet.Niemi signed requirements in May for a cheaper, modular, mass-producible aircraft. That program, Massed Modular Aircraft, or MMA, opened as a Defense Innovation Unit competition July 7 with the Air Force as partner. The solicitation, which closed July 23, asked for a drone that could fly Reaper-class strike, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, electronic warfare and communications-relay missions cheaply enough to absorb losses. It called for at least 2,800 pounds of payload and an 8,000-nautical-mile one-way ferry range.That is the aircraft Niemi now prices against Collaborative Combat Aircraft, or CCA. He put CCA air vehicles near $20 million and MMA at about half that, Defense Daily reported. An Air Force spokesperson said those figures are for the air vehicle only, not a fully missionized aircraft, according to Breaking Defense. In May, Niemi told senators a Reaper with a full sensor package can cost up to $50 million. At the Sept. 3 briefing, he said the Air Force will probably field at least 180 MMA drones.Niemi argued the Reaper’s value is not the airframe. “What makes the MQ-9 special has nothing to do with the aircraft itself,” he said, calling its speed, altitude and range decades-old technology. Initial MMA versions, he said, will rely on proven technology rather than new systems to hit the price. He described a long-aspect-wing turboprop in the “4,000 miles-type class,” farther and heavier than a CCA but slower. Officials did not say how that class relates to the 8,000-nautical-mile ferry range in the July notice. General Atomics is bidding a design it calls Wildfire, first reported by Aviation Week in August. Spokesman C. Mark Brinkley told Air & Space Forces Magazine it “meets every wish on the [MMA] list and exceeds most of them,” but declined to give capabilities or cost. The company has not released images. Brinkley told The War Zone in August that treating MMA as a Reaper replacement misses the immediate need for a backfill. Wildfire does not depend on winning the competition, he said, and “we can deliver Wildfires years earlier than the current schedule.” He framed the design targets as considerations rather than specs, among them a 10,000-nautical-mile ferry range, four Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles and 100 aircraft under semi-autonomous control.Col. Todd Dye, senior materiel leader in the Air Force’s medium-altitude intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance division, said awards for MMA concept refinement were expected in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Breaking Defense reported. Officials did not announce a new date at the Sept. 3 briefing.Michael Scanlon is a defense journalist covering air and space warfare. A former U.S. Air Force A-10 crew chief, he has supported land and sea programs for the U.S. Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard.