UP turns tricky for BJP if Lok Sabha polls held today: Mood of the Nation

The August 2026 Mood of the Nation survey suggests growing anti-incumbency sentiment across the Hindi heartland, with Uttar Pradesh emerging as the starkest example. The state's projected numbers mark a sharp reversal from January, when the BJP-led NDA held a clear advantage over the INDIA bloc.The main headline point from India Today’s latest Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey comes from Uttar Pradesh, which plays a crucial role in determining the course of India’s elections. According to the August 2026 MOTN survey, the INDIA bloc could have an edge over the BJP-led NDA in Uttar Pradesh if Lok Sabha elections were held now, based on the projected seat share.The survey projects 41 of Uttar Pradesh's 80 Lok Sabha seats for the INDIA bloc, against 38 for the NDA. One seat is outside the two alliances in the projection.The Mood of the Nation is a bi-annual survey that's been commissioned by the India Today Group for around two decades now. The August 2026 edition was conducted by CVoter with a sample of 25,184 people directly surveyed between July 1 and August 25. Another set of 91,795 interviews conducted over the last six months as part of CVoter's regular tracking were also used to formulate the findings of the August Mood of the Nation 2026.The latest numbers mark a reversal from the January 2026 MOTN survey, when the NDA was projected to win 48 seats in the state, compared with 31 for the INDIA bloc. The August projection gives the INDIA bloc a 10-seat increase, while the NDA's projected tally falls by the same number. The August 2026 projection also puts the INDIA bloc slightly ahead of the NDA in Uttar Pradesh compared with the 2024 Lok Sabha election. The INDIA bloc had won 43 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, while the NDA had 36. The latest MOTN projection puts the two blocs at 41 and 38 seats respectively.This means the survey's projected numbers are two seats lower for the INDIA bloc and two higher for the NDA compared with the 2024 tally. The shift is more pronounced when compared with the January 2026 MOTN projection. The NDA's projected tally has fallen from 48 to 38, while the INDIA bloc's has risen from 31 to 41.- EndsPublished By: Sayan GangulyPublished On: Aug 27, 2026 18:37 IST