United CEO 100% Sure A Merger With American Would Get Approved. I’m 99% Sure He’s Wrong.

I’ll admit that there’s probably collectively a little too much reporting on what United CEO Scott Kirby says. The issue is, he’s a really bright guy, and I’d argue he’s the most impactful leader in the US airline industry since Richard Anderson at Delta. At the same time, on some level that seems to have gotten to his head, and I just feel like he’s making claims that are completely indefensible, at least if you approach them with any level of objectivity. Kirby has no doubts United & American merger would get approvalKirby’s merger vision is wrong on two main pointsBottom line Kirby has no doubts United & American merger would get approval In April 2026, news broke about how United CEO Scott Kirby reportedly approached the Trump administration about the concept of merging with American, and forming a “flag” carrier for the United States. Days later, American management publicly rejected this concept, which caused Kirby to publicly make his case for a merger with American. Months later, it came out that Kirby had also approached Delta about the concept of a merger. Ever since, Kirby has continued to insist that this is a great idea, and that those who oppose it are just misunderstanding his vision. The widespread belief (among other industry executives and the public) is that such a deal wouldn’t get approval, because it shouldn’t… it would be really bad for competition! However, View from the Wing flags Kirby’s latest comments on his merger dream, which I can’t help but find to be interesting: “I think the biggest impediment is having a willing partner. I am more convinced today than I was when I wrote my note six months ago that it could get approval. It could get approval because it is good for customers. So many people look at that kind of a merger through what has been the traditional airline commodity lens, that air travel is a commodity, and it doesn’t matter which airline flies. But customers care about the service, the product, the technology, the reliability. It wouldn’t be easy. We’d have to do some divestitures, but I 100% think it could get approved.” So Kirby claims he’s 100% certain that a merger between two of the three biggest US carriers would get approved by regulators. No, he’s not 80% sure, or 90% sure, or 99% sure. He’s 100% sure. Now, in fairness to him, he acknowledges that some divestitures would be required, but I think he’s underestimating the scale of divestitures that would be required for anything like this to get approval. Maybe this is a hot take, but I think American management should call United’s bluff. Come to a deal that’s good for American shareholders, and create an absolutely massive breakup fee in the event it doesn’t get approval. There would only be upside for American, and then Kirby can put his money where his mouth is. Kirby is 100% confident a merger would be approved Kirby’s merger vision is wrong on two main points We know that Kirby has an axe to grind with American, since he was fired there, and then went on to work at United (which probably ended up being the best thing that could happen to him, because he sure seized that opportunity). So I can’t help but feel like a large motivation for his merger dream is based on wanting to get revenge, and that’s maybe clouding reality for him a bit. Fundamentally, I disagree with Kirby’s merger dream on two levels — he overstates United’s greatness, and he understates the competitive implications of a merger of this scale. United has absolutely improved massively under Kirby’s leadership. But Kirby acts like United is Singapore Airlines, while Delta and American are Air Algerie and TAAG Angola Airlines, by comparison. Is Kirby forgetting that United is still catching up with Delta, and in the number two spot in the US industry? He acts as if the only way to have a pleasant flight on a US carrier is to fly with United, which just seems extreme. He seems to believe that, though, since he has called United “the best airline in the history of aviation.” For that matter, from a consumer perspective, does Kirby not realize that the positive changes at United are now forcing American to make positive changes? American is getting seat back TVs, Starlink Wi-Fi, improved lounges, etc. That strong competition helps consumers, and it doesn’t hurt them. Obviously eliminating one of the “big three” carriers would have huge implications for competition, and pricing power for airlines (especially when airline executives keep talking about how they want fare increases to stick around even after fuel prices decrease). Kirby’s emphasis has long been on how it’s not just about offering the best price, but also about offering the best overall experience and value. While there has definitely been some decommoditization of airfare (in other words, more people are brand loyal), that still represents the minority of consumers. United is a publicly traded company that’s there to maximize shareholder value, and you can bet the airline will charge the highest fares it possibly can — if they didn’t, Kirby should be fired, because he’s not doing his job. Even if you were to claim that domestic competition would be preserved (it wouldn’t be, in my opinion), what about internationally? The way global aviation has evolved is that the “big three” US carriers have helped create “big three” joint ventures, where they all partner with different airlines across the Atlantic and Pacific, allowing them to coordinate fares, schedules, etc. Abandoning an entire set of joint ventures would horribly hurt the competitive landscape. Kirby is way off base with his merger dream, in my opinion Bottom line United CEO Scott Kirby has for months been talking about how great it would be if United and American could merge, and he talks about how positive it would be for consumers. The issue is that such a deal would be unlikely to get regulatory approval, given the competitive implications. Kirby disagrees, and he’s 100% certain that such a deal would get approval. I couldn’t disagree with him more, because the competitive implications would be massive (and negative). I kind of wish American would call his bluff and agree to a merger with a huge breakup fee, so that Kirby can be forced to actually stand behind his claims. What do you make of Kirby’s merger “guarantees?”