Ukraine’s Drone Offensive Gives Kyiv a 3-to-1 Edge Over Russia

Ukraine has conducted approximately three times more long-range drone strikes against targets in Russia than the Kremlin has launched in the opposite direction over the past 100 days, according to a Kyiv Post analysis of open-source strike data. The analysis found that even when Russia’s cruise, ballistic, hypersonic, and anti-ship missiles are included, the cumulative explosive payload delivered by Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign often matches, and at times exceeds, the total weight of warheads launched by Russia against Ukraine on a given night.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. The study was based on open-source data tracking long-range strikes from the Ukrainian Air Force documenting Russian drones and missiles detected in Ukrainian airspace, alongside daily statements from Russia’s defense ministry reporting Ukrainian drones and missiles it claimed to have intercepted. Those databases, to some degree, undercount strike-weapon totals for Russia as not all launched weapons are detected by Ukrainian air defenses. For Ukraine, even if all Russian shootdown claims are accurate, some Ukrainian drones and missiles are not stopped and go on to hit targets in Russia. One problem with the Russian official data is that it is incomplete. On some days, Russia’s defense ministry publishes shootdown claims covering a full 24-hour period, while on others it reports figures for only 12 hours or less. Another challenge is the tendency to overcount. By the Kremlin’s own figures, Russia has destroyed 17,936 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), yet an independent Western analysis estimates that Ukraine has likely launched only about 4,620 UAVs at Russian. Other Topics of Interest Serbia Hopes for Gas Deal Extension After Vucic-Putin Call The Balkan nation remains heavily dependent on Russian gas but has failed to secure a long-term contract since its previous three-year deal expired in summer 2025. Still, based on that imperfect but extensive dataset, one figure stands out. During the 100-day period from June 17 to Sept. 24, official Ukrainian data recorded the launch of around 16,000 Russian drones of various types against Ukraine. Kyiv Post estimates, assisted by AI analysis, suggest the actual number was likely closer to 16,200, though an exact total is impossible to determine. Over the same three-month period, Russian defense ministry claims, compiled from daily reports published by state-run news agency RIA Novosti, indicated that Russian forces had shot down or otherwise neutralized between 48,000-55,000 Ukrainian long-range drones. Those figures suggest Ukraine was launching more than three times as many explosives-toting robot aircraft at targets in Russia compared to what Moscow was sending the other direction. Records of peak long-range strike activity also point to a roughly 3-to-1 Ukrainian advantage in large-scale aerial attacks. During the past 100 days, Russia launched more than 400 drones against Ukraine on two occasions, July 2 and Sept. 12, and more than 250 drones on five occasions: Sept. 24, Sept. 23, Sept. 12, Aug. 29, and Aug. 27. Three of those attacks were directed at Kyiv, striking civilian homes and infrastructure in the capital, while two others hit railway, logistics, energy, and industrial targets across the country. Based on Kremlin shootdown claims, Ukraine carried out drone attacks involving more than 1,000 aircraft on at least three occasions. The largest came on Aug. 19-20, when Russian authorities claimed to have destroyed 1,164 Ukrainian drones, the highest figure recorded during the period. Russia also reported intercepting that same amount during attacks on Aug. 17-18 and Aug. 15-16, with two additional large-scale strikes, on Aug. 18-19 and Sept. 22-23, involving more than 900 Ukrainian drones, per Russian claims. Major Ukrainian drone raids have generally been broader in scope and less focused on harming civilians, as compared to Russian attacks. Instead, Ukrainian long-range strike aircraft have typically targeted Russian energy infrastructure, military manufacturing, military headquarters, and ammunition storage sites. Direct comparisons of Russian and Ukrainian drone strike totals do not provide a complete picture of their impact or the damage inflicted. Russia, a nuclear power with one of the world’s oldest missile industries, regularly supplements its drone attacks with ballistic, cruise, hypersonic, and even anti-ship missiles launched against targets across Ukraine. Ukraine, while owning a fairly advanced aerospace industry capable of building ballistic and cruise missiles throughout the war, has been unable to conduct large-scale missile strikes against Russia due to high costs and sustained attacks. Worse for the Ukrainians, stopping Russian ballistic missiles depends heavily on interceptor missiles controlled by the White House. On July 2, Russia launched 496 drones and 74 missiles at Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses shot down nearly 90% of the drones, but a number of missiles penetrated the defense shield, killing at least 30 people and damaging around 130 buildings in Kyiv. On July 6, Russia launched 23 ballistic missiles. None were intercepted, and at least 20 Ukrainians were killed, most of them when a ballistic missile strike caused the collapse of the apartment building where they lived. During the first three weeks of September, Ukraine reported detecting 2,100 jet-powered drones and 136 missiles launched by Russian forces. Over the same period, civilian authorities recorded 288 deaths, most caused by weapons that Ukrainian air defenses had little or no ability to stop.That death and destruction notwithstanding, measured by the raw weight of warheads, the amount of explosives carried by Ukrainian drones into Russia is, on average, at least in part and probably greater than the amount of destructive force carried by Russian drones and missiles heading the other way. Based on open-source descriptions of the types of drones spotted over Russia, and statements by Ukrainian military sources, a typical mix in a major Ukrainian one-night attack involving more than 1,000 aircraft would probably include 550-600 workhorse FP-1-type drones, each carrying a warhead of around 100 kilograms (220 pounds), 100-150 longer-range Sichen or Morok drones armed with lighter 30-40 kilogram (66-88 pound) warheads, and a similar number of jet-powered drones carrying similar payloads. The total warhead weight of such a strike force, while hypothetical, would closely approximate that of actual large-scale Ukrainian drone attacks. Depending on the exact mix of aircraft and payloads, it could deliver between 55 and 75 tons of explosive warheads against targets in Russia. Actual components and warheads are not publicly disclosed. In a maximum-effort Russian strike against Ukraine, there is better data and a number of well-documented examples. The Russian attack of July 29-30 included 74 missiles, among them 61 cruise missiles, nine ballistic missiles, and four anti-ship missiles, all carrying warheads in the 450-kilogram (992-pound) range. The missiles were accompanied by 284 drones, some armed with warheads weighing around 100 kilograms (220 pounds) and others operating as unarmed decoys designed to complicate Ukrainian air defenses. A reasonable estimate of the total warhead weight delivered by those Russian missiles, in what was one of the largest missile attacks of the war, is around 38-40 tons of high explosives. Even if every accompanying Russian drone had also been armed with a warhead, and Russian strike tactics always employ decoys, the maximum additional warhead weight in the drones would have been 25-30 tons. The outcome of that notional arithmetic is that, if total explosive payload delivered in a single maximum-effort raid is used as the benchmark, then Ukraine, despite lacking the capacity to manufacture cruise and ballistic missiles in large numbers, probably delivers more explosives to its targets in a peak attack than Russia does in a comparable strike, thanks to a 3-to-1 advantage in the number of drones Ukraine is typically able to launch. A major qualification to that Ukrainian numerical advantage is that a single 450-kg (992-pound) missile warhead detonation will cause significantly more damage than three or four 100 kg (220 pound) drone warhead detonations. Because of its high speed, a ballistic missile can penetrate a target more deeply, with the explosion of its warhead taking place in a single location. This is a partial answer to the begged question of why Russian strikes against Ukraine seem so destructive: the missiles Russia is using, when and where they hit, are far more destructive individually. However, quantity matters as well as quality in a large conventional war. Over the past three months, practically every Ukrainian strike has, according to open-source imagery and Kyiv Post’s daily tracking of those attacks, achieved at least some useful hits on Russian targets – roughly three times more often than Russia has managed against targets in Ukraine during the same period.