Ukraine Revises Q2 GDP Growth Down to 0.4%, Below NBU Estimate

Ukraine’s State Statistics Service revised its estimate of second-quarter 2026 GDP growth down to 0.4% year-on-year, trimming the 0.6% flash estimate it published last month and falling further below the National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) own calculation of 0.8% growth for the same period. The updated figure showed an even slower pace of recovery of Ukraine’s economy in the face of Russia’s intensified strikes on energy and logistics. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP rose 0.3% from the first quarter of 2026, down from the 0.4% pace reported in the flash estimate. Ukraine’s nominal GDP for the quarter stood at just under Hr. 2.31 trillion ($51.8 billion), the agency set out in its statement. The data update came on the back of refined administrative data from the State Treasury, covering execution of the state and local budgets, along with expanded balance-of-payments data. It also pointed to new inputs from the NBU on financial corporations, insurance companies, pawnshops, the Pension Fund and the Mandatory State Social Insurance Fund for unemployment, as well as additional services-sector statistics covering postal, courier and telecommunications activity. The downward adjustment leaves Ukraine’s second-quarter rebound intact but more modest than first reported. It follows a 0.6% year-on-year contraction in the first quarter of 2026, when Russian bombardment of energy infrastructure and an unusually cold winter dragged output into negative territory, according to the State Statistics Service’s initial flash estimate published in May. Other Topics of Interest Ukraine’s IMF Review Delayed Until December as Tax Reforms Stall, Source Says Stalled tax reforms are delaying Ukraine’s next IMF payment, a government source says, as Kyiv seeks funding for another year of war. The NBU had previously forecasted the second-quarter recovery to be grounded in an improving energy system and rising budget expenditures amid lower uncertainty over foreign aid, while citing intensified Russian strikes on logistics infrastructure, including port blockades, as well as on energy and business facilities, as a continuing drag on faster growth. Olena Hrazhdan is the Business Reporter at Kyiv Post, covering Ukraine’s markets, business, and economic policy. While she reports broadly on economic issues, her core focus is banking, finance, monetary and fiscal policy. Olena previously wrote for leading Ukrainian business media and became a Fellow of the International Monetary Fund’s Journalism Fellowship in 2024.