Ukraine Revises 2026 GDP Growth Forecast Down to 0.5–0.6% as Business Losses Set to Hit $10 Billion

Ukraine is cutting its 2026 economic growth forecast from 2.4% to around 1.2% or 0.5% (depending on the institution) and expects business losses to reach $10 billion by year-end, as blocked exports and damaged logistics weigh on the economy. Losses for business are estimated at $10 billion by the end of 2026, according to Ukraine’s Minister of Economy and Environment, Oleksandr Kravchenko, speaking to the Forbes Ukraine Economic Resilience Forum in Kyiv on Sept. 23.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. “Ukraine is revising its 2026 GDP growth forecast from 2.4% to approximately 0.5-0.6%,” Kravchenko said. He cited export blockades and logistics disruption as the causes. The revision comes as Kyiv looks for ways to make doing business in wartime insurable. Ukraine is seeking to establish a First Loss Fund to support war-risk insurance for businesses. Lawmakers and business, however, are hesitant about a one-percentage-point increase in value-added tax, which is under consideration as a way to raise Ukraine’s contribution to the mechanism. Ukraine’s central bank, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), expects a smaller reduction. Deputy Governor Volodymyr Lepushynskyi said on Sept. 17 that the NBU may lower its 2026 growth estimate to 1.1-1.2% from the 1.8% it forecast in July, according to Interfax-Ukraine. He cited additional destruction in industry and trade from Russian attacks and worsening business expectations. Lepushynskyi also said the figures are not final and could change by the end of the NBU’s forecasting cycle in late October. Other Topics of Interest Government to Prioritize Defense, Social Spending Amid Tight Public Finances Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi said part of the planned international funding has not yet arrived, in part because Ukraine failed to fulfill some of the obligations towards international partners. Speakers from Ukraine’s largest companies described a situation that remains critical in individual sectors. In steelmaking, there was a period in September when Ukrainian metallurgy did not produce steel, according to Oleksandr Vodoviz, head of the CEO’s office at Metinvest group said at Forbes Ukraine event. An attempt to restart a furnace at Zaporizhstal lasted 10 hours and cost $50 million, he said. In agriculture, grain exports have fallen to 40% of what is possible because of blocked seaports and the limited capacity of the Danube route, according to Kernel CEO Yevhen Osypov. Retail is under similar strain. Intertop Ukraine CEO Serhiy Badritdinov said 2026 is harder for the sector than 2022, the first year of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The business is adjusting its inventory and logistics and expanding e-commerce, he said. Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization, reporting since 1995. Its international reach – 97% of readers are outside of Ukraine – make it truly Ukraine’s global voice.