TUI Trims Earnings Guidance as Airline Segment Lags

Key Points TUI narrowed fiscal 2026 underlying EBIT guidance to €1.2 billion to €1.3 billion, below last year's €1.41 billion even at the high end. Summer 2026 booked revenue for Markets + Airline is down 5% and winter is down 7%, though the last four weeks are only 1% behind last year. Revenue guidance stays suspended until conditions stabilize, and the profit forecast assumes no further Middle East escalation and steady fuel supply. Summary TUI narrowed its fiscal 2026 earnings guidance on Tuesday to between €1.2 billion and €1.3 billion (roughly $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion) in underlying EBIT, the profit measure before interest and taxes. That tightens the €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion range the German tour operator set in April after the Iran war disrupted travel to the region. Even the top of the new range sits below last year's €1.41 billion, and the forecast assumes no further escalation in the Middle East and steady fuel supplies. Bookings tell a mixed story: summer 2026 booked revenue for the Markets + Airline segment is down 5% year over year, matching TUI's decision to cut the capacity it carries at its own risk, and winter is trailing 7%. The last four weeks have been stronger, with booked revenue only 1% behind. Customers are still booking late because of the war and economic uncertainty, and TUI has yet to restore its revenue guidance, which stays on hold until conditions stabilize. Average selling prices are holding, and the experiences segment — hotels, cruises, and activities — opened fiscal 2027 strongly on higher rates and a bigger portfolio.