Trump Puts Iran Strikes on Hold as Hurricane Threatens Oil Supply

Oil retreats from $110 as Trump rules out Iran strikes before the midterms, but tanker attacks and a Gulf hurricane threaten fresh volatility.Friday, October 09, 2026Donald Trump seems to be firefighting the Middle Eastern blaze, vowing not to attack Iran before the mid-term elections just as oil prices were nearing the $110 per barrel mark amidst a deteriorating security situation in Saudi Arabia and Iran hitting at least one transiting tanker in the Hormuz every day for the past three weeks. Whilst news of ‘productive discussions’ have lowered ICE Brent to $105 per barrel, all eyes will be on Hurricane Isaias this weekend, with the oil markets seeking to gauge potential damages.Trump Rules Out Iran Strikes Before Midterms. US President Donald Trump has ruled out attacks on Iran before the midterm elections on November 3 amid ‘productive’ negotiations, temporarily reducing escalation risks around Hormuz just as Iran keeps on striking transiting tankers in the Hormuz.Iran Draws a Firm Nuclear Red Line. Iran’s atomic energy chief Mohammad Eslami said Tehran will neither abandon uranium enrichment nor surrender its existing stockpile, dismissing renewed US threats and preserving the key obstacle to negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz.Isaias Shuts Most US Gulf Oil Output. US offshore drillers have halted two-thirds of offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico – around 1.3 million b/d—as well as 57% of gas output, with potential supply losses triggered by Hurricane Isaias reaching 9 million barrels, concurrently to lower refinery runs. Europe Faces a Winter Gas Storage Squeeze. Europe’s Association of Transmission System Operators (ENTSOG) warned that even with record LNG imports, EU inventories are projected to fall from 73% now to 29% by end-March, while an extremely cold winter could slash stocks below the 10% strategic floor.China Restarts Fuel Exports After One-Week Pause. Returning from a week-long Golden Week holiday, Chinese authorities have approved around 3.7 million tonnes (29 million barrels) of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel shipments for October, below the 1.0-1.1 million b/d export flow seen in August-September.Qatar’s Pearl GTL Partially Returns After Drone Damage. UK-based energy giant Shell (LON:SHEL) has partially restarted the 140,000 boe/d Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) facility in Qatar after a six-month halt, allowing QatarEnergy to resume naphtha deliveries, although Train 2 repairs remain due in early 2027.Ukraine Strikes Russia’s Largest Refinery. Ukraine’s military stated that its drones hit Gazprom Neft’s 440,000 b/d Omsk refinery, the largest downstream plant in Russia located some 2,500 km from the Ukrainian border, marking the 4th attack on Russian refineries this month amidst escalating tensions.US Gas Output Outruns Record Demand. The US Energy Information Administration expects US natural gas production in 2027 to rise by more than 3% year-on-year to 116.1 BCf/d, outpacing the 1.4 BCf/d annual growth in domestic gas demand (to 93.8 BCf/d), signalling downside price pressure to Henry Hub.Exxon Digs in Over Kashagan’s $5 Billion Fine. US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) blocked a proposal to make a settlement with the Kazakh government over a disputed $5 billion environmental fine at the Kashagan offshore field, telling Astana any new investment would be contingent on the dispute.Venture Global Suffers Second LNG Contract Defeat. The International Chamber of Commerce ruled that US LNG developer (NYSE:VG) breached its supply agreement with Portugal’s state oil firm Galp (ELI:GALP) by withholding contracted cargoes, with payable damages estimated at $170 million.Supertanker Freight Rates Reach All-Time Highs. Freights for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) loading in the US Gulf Coast skyrocketed to historic highs this week, with a VLCC tanker bound for Asia-Pacific fixed at an unprecedented $81 million lumpsum, quadruple the previous pre-war record at $41 per barrel.Devon Exits Eagle Ford to Double Down on the Permian. US shale specialist Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) sold its Eagle Ford assets to Crescent Energy (NYSE:CRGY) for $4.2 billion, producing 68,000 boe/d, seeking to maximize its focus on the Permian Basin following the $58 billion merger with Coterra Energy.Codelco’s Copper Recovery Comes Under Scrutiny. Chile’s state miner Codelco is investigating potential over-reported copper output in 2024-2025, with reports suggesting identical material was counted by multiple divisions in 2024–25, as the company struggles to recover from two-decade-low production.Nigeria Opens 40 Blocks in Push for Offshore Bonanza. The Nigerian government has launched a new licensing round, offering 40 oil and gas blocks spanning the Niger Delta, Benin and Chad regions, seeking to increase its crude and condensate production to 3 million b/d by 2030, up from 1.74 million b/d now.Venezuela Pitches an Oil Sector Revival. According to PDVSA chief Hector Obregon, Venezuela aims to sign 105 new oil contracts by December, with 70% covering greenfield projects, as the state oil firm seeks to boost production to 1.5 million b/d by end-2027 and plans to lift refinery runs to 500,000 b/d.By Tom Kool for Oilprice.comMore Top Reads From Oilprice.comAsian Refiners Ditch U.S. Oil as Supertanker Rates Hit $82 MillionCrude Oil is Underpriced, Energy Aspects SaysPetronas to Raise Malaysia Dividend 19% to $7.8 Billion for 2027