Tokyo reverses baby bust with AI matchmaking and generous subsidies

TOKYO – Having led Japan’s largest metropolis for a decade, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike considers a long-awaited statistical uptick among her proudest achievements: births in the capital are finally rising.In 2025, Tokyo registered 85,064 Japanese births; representing a modest year-on-year increase of 1.02 per cent, or an extra 857 babies, it was the first such increase in 10 years. While the net gain seems small on paper, underlying demographic trends suggest genuine momentum is beginning to build.That same year, 79,481 couples registered their marriages in the capital, up by 3,040 pairs in a second consecutive annual rise. Because few babies in Japan are born out of wedlock, a sustained rise in unions serves as a crucial bellwether for future cradles.This momentum is carrying directly into 2026. In the first half of the year, Tokyo welcomed 2,278 more babies than during the same period in 2025, according to preliminary Health Ministry data released on Aug 28.This localised jump is helping lift figures nationwide. Japan recorded 342,068 births between January and June 2026 – a net increase of 2,788 births year on year, representing the country’s first nationwide first-half increase in 11 years.For a hyper-efficient urban metropolis long considered a sterile pressure cooker, this demographic turn of the tide is significant and serves as early vindication of Koike’s signature “children first” philosophy.“I was in national politics before and got frustrated because nothing was being done. That’s why I ran to serve as the governor of Tokyo,” Koike, a former Cabinet minister and TV journalist, told The Straits Times in a recent exclusive interview to mark 10 years in office.The 74-year-old governor has effectively turned Tokyo into a living laboratory for families, bypassing national bureaucracy to lead Japan in areas such as childcare subsidies and maternal support, and often implementing policies before they are adopted by the state.“Since then, the national government seems to have gradually started to take action and put various systems in place,” she said. “I see Tokyo’s role as the driving force leading these initiatives.”Ten years after breaking the glass ceiling to become the first female governor of Japan’s largest prefecture of 14.3 million residents, Koike has left an indelible mark and captured international attention, not least from policymakers in Singapore, who are grappling with similar demographic pressures.Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike broke the glass ceiling 10 years ago to become the first female governor of Japan’s largest prefecture. ST PHOTO: WALTER SIMSqueezed into Tokyo’s central 23 wards are nearly 10 million residents living across 627.51 sq km, an urban footprint slightly smaller in area but even more densely packed than Singapore’s.Tokyo stands out as a rare Japanese prefecture whose population is growing while the national total is shrinking. That growth has long been fuelled almost entirely by young Japanese migrating to the capital for work, masking the prefecture’s dismal fertility rate of 0.96, the lowest across Japan.But by actively attempting to convert these newcomers into nesting couples, Tokyo is experiencing nascent success in fertility policy.“Japan tends to be quite conservative, so we provide support to facilitate the progression from marriage to childbirth,” Koike said.“Of course, whether to marry and have children is entirely a matter of individual choice. Our role is to foster a sense of shared empathy and understanding across society so that everyone can feel secure enough to realise their own personal aspirations.”On his visit to Tokyo in July, Singapore’s Minister for Social and Family Development Masagos Zulkifli and Koike discussed areas such as marriage and parenthood.“As densely populated, ageing societies navigating similar urban and demographic challenges, Singapore and Tokyo have much to learn from each other,” Masagos said in a Facebook post.Koike told ST that they discussed Tokyo’s recent uptick in births, the performance of the official metropolitan matchmaking app, and the city’s suite of parental support initiatives.Recognising the need for a holistic life-cycle strategy, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government (TMG) is focusing on providing “seamless support at every stage from meeting someone, dating, marriage, childbirth, child-rearing and education”, Koike said.“When women are building their careers, they often don’t have opportunities to meet people, and there is a structural ‘time lag’ between their careers and biological timelines,” Koike said.To lower the barrier to finding a partner, TMG launched its official artificial intelligence-driven matchmaking app, Tokyo Enmusubi (“binding a connection”), in September 2024. Designed to offer a highly secure and verified alternative to commercial dating platforms, the app requires users to submit official certificates confirming their singlehood.To date, it has registered more than 38,000 users and facilitated at least 300 marriages, a figure that officials believe is a conservative estimate, as users are not required to report their successful marriages to the city. Beyond digital matchmaking, TMG is also organising in-person matchmaking events to foster relationships in an urban landscape of increasing isolation. On Aug 8, the auspicious eighth day of the eighth month of the eighth year of the current Reiwa imperial era, TMG hosted a “hachi-musubi” marriage promotion and commemoration event with newly married couples given an exclusive marriage certificate.After marriage, Tokyo’s focus pivots to removing the biological and financial anxieties that often delay parenthood for career-minded women. In October 2023, Tokyo became the first prefecture in Japan to subsidise elective egg freezing for female residents aged 18 to 39, with recipients receiving up to 200,000 yen (S$1,600) during the fiscal year of the procedure, plus 20,000 yen annually for up to five years to offset subsequent storage costs.To further smooth the delivery process, TMG introduced another prefectural first in October 2025: a subsidy of up to 100,000 yen for epidural deliveries, to address the financial barriers to pain-free childbirth for Tokyo residents using medical institutions in the capital.And the financial relief extends well beyond the delivery room to post-natal care and child-rearing support. TMG mails catalogues directly to new parents, allowing them to exchange municipal parenting credits for essential baby supplies.The prefecture also provides free childcare, subsidises school lunches, and offers effectively free high school tuition on top of national support for the standard nine compulsory years of education from elementary to junior high.Yet, cash alone cannot reverse the demographic crisis. Koike said that true reform requires changing the very DNA of society, including the rigid cultural expectations.Historically, working fathers who used paternity leave felt “guilt” and faced severe professional stigma. To combat this, Koike launched aggressive public awareness campaigns and introduced flexible work arrangements for public servants to normalise the practice.The results have been drastic: In 2016, a mere 7.4 per cent of new fathers in Tokyo took paternity leave, but by 2025, that figure had surged to 61.2 per cent.Further, in July 2026, Tokyo became the first prefecture to enact a dedicated ordinance promoting women’s professional advancement that, among other things, serves to ensure that working mothers face no career penalties.“I believe that by establishing an ecosystem that supports marriage, childbirth and child-rearing, thereby allowing people to plan their lives with peace of mind, we have managed to achieve an increase in the number of births,” Koike said, adding that this momentum cannot be allowed to stagnate.“We have been reforming the city for 10 years. Stopping this process would essentially mean moving backward, so we must continue to push forward,” she said. “I believe a society where you can hear the voices of children everywhere is a healthy one.”