TINUBU’S REFORMS: HOW THE STATES ARE BENEFITING AND THE OPPORTUNITY TO REBUILD NIGERIA

By Dapo Abiodun Economic reforms are rarely painless, particularly when they seek to correct decades of structural distortions. Their ultimate value, however, lies in the opportunities they create to rebuild economies, strengthen institutions and improve the lives of citizens. Since assuming office in May 2023, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has confronted some of Nigeria’s most entrenched economic challenges, including an unsustainable petrol subsidy regime, distorted foreign exchange arrangements, weak revenue mobilisation and excessive dependence on imports. While the reforms have imposed significant costs on households and businesses, their impact must also be assessed against the opportunities they have created, particularly for the 36 states of the federation. One of the clearest outcomes is the improved financial capacity of state governments. For years, many states struggled to pay salaries, finance capital projects and maintain basic infrastructure. Increased Federation Account allocations have substantially expanded their fiscal space. The Federal Government’s 2026 reform scorecard indicates that the number of states unable to pay salaries declined from 27 in 2023 to zero in 2026. This is significant. Beyond meeting salary obligations, states now have greater capacity to invest in infrastructure, strengthen public institutions and stimulate economic activity. The challenge is to convert these increased revenues into productive investments while strengthening internally generated revenue. The Federal Government has reinforced this opportunity with substantial funding for state-level development. Between March 2024 and August 2025, approximately ₦2.45 trillion was disbursed to states and the Federal Capital Territory for infrastructure and security interventions. Such support gives state governments greater capacity to undertake projects that might otherwise have remained on the drawing board. The removal of the petrol subsidy and foreign exchange reforms have fundamentally altered Nigeria’s fiscal landscape. Although the transition has been difficult, the increased resources available to the three tiers of government have created opportunities to accelerate development. What matters now is how responsibly these resources are deployed. INFRASTRUCTURE: OPENING UP THE STATES FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH Infrastructure is the bridge between increased government revenue and economic prosperity. Roads, bridges, airports, power projects, schools, hospitals, agricultural facilities and industrial parks reduce the cost of doing business, connect markets, attract investment and create employment. This is why collaboration between the Federal Government and state governments is so important. National development cannot be achieved by Abuja acting alone. Federal infrastructure investments must complement state development priorities, while states must create the conditions for private-sector participation. The ongoing rehabilitation and reconstruction of the Sagamu–Ijebu-Ode–Ore Road illustrates this relationship. By improving connectivity across a major economic corridor linking the South-West with the South-East and South-South, the project will facilitate commerce, transportation and investment across state boundaries. Ogun State offers another illustration of how an improved fiscal environment, strategic planning and collaboration can accelerate development. The state is undertaking the construction of more than 1,700 kilometres of roads across its 20 local government areas, alongside the development of the Gateway International Airport, power infrastructure, schools and other critical facilities. The Gateway Deep Sea Port and proposed Blue Marine Special Economic Zone, developed with international investment partners, are also intended to strengthen Ogun’s position as an industrial and investment destination. The objective is bigger than constructing roads or buildings. It is to open up communities, attract industries, create jobs and build an economy capable of generating wealth beyond government allocations. This is the kind of economic transformation that increased fiscal resources should make possible across the federation. NELFUND: INVESTING IN THE NEXT GENERATION Another important dimension of the reforms is the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND). Through interest-free student loans, eligible Nigerians can access funding for institutional fees and upkeep allowances to support feeding and other basic needs. By March 2026, NELFUND had reportedly disbursed approximately ₦206.29 billion to more than 1.16 million students across 270 institutions. This is more than an education financing initiative. It is an investment in human capital. It reduces the financial burden on parents, expands access to tertiary education and gives students greater opportunity to concentrate on their studies without the constant anxiety of raising money for tuition and basic living expenses. A country aspiring to industrialise and compete globally must invest in the education and skills of its young population. NELFUND represents an important step in that direction. Beyond education, the increased fiscal capacity of states also creates opportunities to expand agricultural production, support small businesses, improve healthcare and strengthen social infrastructure. Whether these opportunities translate into better living conditions will depend on responsible governance, transparency and effective implementation. TRUMP IS NOT TINUBU: AMERICA’S ELECTION IS NOT NIGERIA’S DESTINY It is against this background that attempts by sections of the opposition to draw parallels between the electoral setbacks suffered by President Donald Trump’s Republican Party in the United States and the political fortunes of President Tinubu and the APC ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general election must be challenged. The comparison is fundamentally misplaced. Trump is not Tinubu. The Republican Party is not the APC. America is not Nigeria. The political, economic and institutional circumstances shaping elections in the two countries are fundamentally different. American midterm elections are primarily congressional contests held halfway through a president’s four-year tenure. They allow voters to express their satisfaction or dissatisfaction with an administration through elections into Congress. Nigeria’s 2027 general election will involve a direct presidential contest in which Nigerians will assess the Tinubu administration’s record and the alternatives offered by competing political parties. The issues influencing American voters, including Trump’s foreign policy, tariffs and domestic economic pressures, cannot automatically determine the political choices of Nigerian voters. To suggest otherwise is to confuse political commentary with serious electoral analysis. More importantly, Nigeria has its own economic realities. The Tinubu administration inherited longstanding structural weaknesses that required difficult decisions. The reforms have not eliminated hardship, but they have created additional fiscal resources for the federation and expanded the financial capacity of state governments. These developments deserve to be part of any honest assessment. The opposition must therefore do more than borrow electoral predictions from Washington. It must explain its alternative economic programme. Would it restore the petrol subsidy? How would it finance it sustainably? Would it return to the multiple exchange-rate system? How would it fund infrastructure, attract investment, improve revenue generation and create employment? Nigerians deserve answers, not borrowed political predictions. This does not mean the Tinubu administration should take the opportunities created by its reforms for granted. Increased government revenue must translate into better roads, improved public services, more jobs, affordable food and a visible reduction in economic hardship. Ultimately, citizens will judge the reforms by what they experience in their daily lives. That is the real test of leadership and the responsibility of government. The 2027 election will be determined by Nigerian voters, their assessment of the country’s circumstances and the choices presented to them. It will not be decided by the electoral fortunes of the Republican Party in America. Trump must answer to American voters for his record. Tinubu will answer to Nigerians for his. America is not Nigeria. Trump’s electoral setback is not Tinubu’s political destiny. Nigeria’s task is to move beyond economic stabilisation towards industrialisation, competitiveness and shared prosperity. The opportunities created by the reforms must be consolidated through responsible governance, effective federal-state collaboration and sustained implementation. That is the bigger picture. And that is where the real test of these reforms lies. *Prince Dapo Abiodun, CON, is the Governor of Ogun State