The poll that shows how the Badenoch bounce is punishing Reform

Kemi Badenoch‘s rising popularity has pushed the Conservatives ahead of Reform UK to become the main opposition party to Labour for the first time this Parliament, a new poll has found. A survey by polling firm, Ipsos, found more voters now view the Tories as ‘the opposition party’ rather than Reform UK. The poll found 35 per cent of people now view the Conservatives as the main opposition, three per cent ahead of Reform. Reform UK had been in second place in polling over the summer, just three points behind Labour in August with 25 per cent of the electorate saying they would vote for Farage’s party compared to 28 per cent for Andy Burnham’s Labour. Keiran Pedley, UK Director of Politics at Ipsos, said: “These findings reflect a political environment that continues to be in flux following Andy Burnham’s arrival as Prime Minister and recent struggles for Reform UK. “The Burnham bounce looks real – with the public more likely to see Labour as being at least the largest party after the next General Election compared to a month ago. “Meanwhile, in the battle for hearts and minds on the right, the Conservatives continue to make progress. “Time will tell if this leads to a decisive shift in voter preferences in their direction or if this is merely a low ebb for Reform UK that they recover from.” How the votes are being spread Ipsos conducted the poll from 9-13 October 2026 asking more than 2,200 members of the public, which political party they considered to be the main opposition party to the Labour Government.It found 35 per cent of people now view the Conservatives as the main opposition, compared to 32 per cent for Reform UK. The Greens took third place with 5 per cent, ahead of the Lib Dems on 4 per cent. It is a key turnaround for the Conservatives after a summer dominated by Reform UK. In May this year, Reform UK led by 28 points and in August it still had a 10-point lead over the Tories. Kemi Badenoch delivers her speech on the final day of the Conservative conference in Birmingham (Photo: Ian Forsyth/Getty) For those who voted for Labour in 2024, there was a significant change in outlook. In May, 49 per cent of 2024 Labour voters thought Reform UK were the main opposition and 25 per cent said the Conservatives. This changed to a split of 34 per cent for each by August. Now, the Conservatives are back as the main opposition party for 42 per cent compared to 29 per cent who think it is Reform UK. Good news for Badenoch? The change in polling fortunes for the Tories has been laid partly at the door of party leader Kemi Badenoch’s performance at the party conference in Birmingham earlier this month. Her announcements on the scrapping of inheritance tax on family homes, a £10bn air and missile defence system and a prison building programme to create 50,000 places, appear to have gone down well with voters on the right. Reform UK has also been dogged by a series of scandals in recent months, which may have also played well for the Conservatives. An ITV undercover investigation revealed allegations of sexism and racism within the party. Sarah Pochin, the party’s first female MP, claimed “they just exclude you if you’re a woman… It’s really tough being a girl with all of this alpha male s*** going on.” A councillor for Solihull was filmed saying his area had become “infested” with Asian families, calling them “absolute parasites”. However, Treasury spokesperson Robert Jenrick defended the party saying Pochin’s view was “not my experience of Reform” and he said the party had acted to “suspend or remove” councillors who were filmed by ITV making racist comments. The party’s finances have also come under scrutiny with a police investigation ongoing into foreign donations to the party, following a Channel 4 investigation. A Reform UK internal inquiry cleared senior officials of breaking electoral law but said “people speaking for the party said things that were wrong, careless and in one instance untrue”. Reform also said it would implement changes to its vetting system. Mr Pedley said Reform has been hit by “scandal after scandal” whereas Badenoch has looked like “a steady pair of hands” with people clear what she stands for in politics. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party has been dogged by scandal but he remains popular in the polls (Photo: Carl Court/Getty) Nigel Farage remains popular There was a note of caution in the polling results. When asked what the outcome of the next General Election will be four in 10 thought it would either be a Labour majority (19 per cent) or a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party (21 per cent). This combined score of 40 per cent is up from 33 per cent in September. And although those questioned in the poll felt it was unlikely either Farage or Badenoch would be the next Prime Minister, the former still edged ahead of the Tory party’s leader. The poll found 33 per cent thought it was likely Nigel Farage will become PM (52 per cent unlikely) and 32 per cent think it is likely that Kemi Badenoch will be PM (50 per cent unlikely). Ed Davey fell well short in polling expectations with 78 per cent viewing him as unlikely to become PM, while 79 per cent saw Zack Polanski as unlikely to ever enter 10 Downing Street.