The Key Climate Issues to Watch In The Midterm Elections

With the midterms approaching, the climate crisis doesn’t seem to be top of mind for most voters. In a recent poll, voters told Gallup that, among 11 issues, the economy, health care, and the war in Iran are the top of their concerns when it comes to this election season. That doesn’t mean climate isn’t on the ballot. The midterms come as the U.S. has faced a slew of climate rollbacks under the first two years of the Trump Administration, including withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, rolling back the landmark endangerment finding, and leasing public lands for oil and gas drilling. With Democrats being significantly more likely to view climate action as a priority, many in the climate movement are hopeful that if the Democrats take back some leadership in Congress, as it could prove essential in helping to prevent further rollbacks.“A new government could stop the bleeding,” says Malcolm Araos, assistant professor at the Wagner School of Public Service at New York University, whose work focuses on the politics of climate policy. “A new Congress, or new Senate can't reverse [many of the climate rollbacks], but they could investigate why [they were] repealed, and they could stop things like that from happening in the future.”All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be determined on Tuesday, Nov. 3, while 35 Senate seats are up for election. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate.Why local elections matter these midtermsWith a low likelihood of federal climate policy under Trump, regardless of the outcome of the midterms, state races are where most environmental advocates are looking. That’s because state-level elections still leave open the potential for local climate action—especially if Democrats can manage a “trifecta” and win the governor’s mansion and a majority in both chambers, says Geoffrey Henderson, assistant professor of environmental policy and planning at the University of Michigan. “We've seen in recent history that when we have Democratic trifectas at the state level, that lends itself to an opportunity to pass pretty transformative climate policies,” he says. “It's often underrated how important state level races are, because there are states like Michigan that are not currently Democratic trifectas, but that could shift back in that direction…and that can really unlock major policy change.”Since President Trump took office, several states, including California, Virginia, and Colorado have pushed forward climate policies despite federal rollbacks. Climate ballot measures to watch in the midterm elections A number of climate measures are also on the ballot in several states. In Colorado, Amendment 82 will have voters deciding on the constitutional right to buy and sell natural gas—a measure that critics say, if passed, could challenge climate policies in the state by promoting fossil fuel reliance.On the other hand, in Michigan, a ballot measure hopes to limit utilities from influencing political campaigns. (Michigan utility companies have previously lobbied against community solar expansion.) Voters in Eugene, Ore., meanwhile, will be asked to decide whether to tax large corporate retailers to fund climate resilience projects. (The measure is modeled after a similar program passed in neighboring Portland in 2018.) These all serve as bellwether cases, says Henderson. “These ballot measures are in some ways testing theories of how each side is going to approach state level climate policy.” How could the Iran war and data center concerns in the midterms impact climate policy?Two issues of concern for voters—the war in Iran and data center construction—could also prove an opportunity for climate-friendly policies like renewable energy investments. “These moments of crisis when energy is really really expensive [can] lead to these switches to renewable energy,” says Araos. As the war laid bare the precarity of fossil fuels, many communities around the world began turning to renewable energy for greater energy security. Voters in 10 states, including California, Kansas, and Ohio, will decide whether to curb data center development in local communities, a fight that’s been resonating with climate advocates. “Data centers have drawn a grassroots bipartisan opposition, and climate groups are very much aligned with that opposition because data centers are major energy users, and in many cases they're major water users,” says Henderson. “I think it is really a climate issue as well as local land use issue, an issue of costs and water availability, and there's an opportunity here for climate advocates to to be a part of a broader coalition.”