The GOP’s Ken Paxton rescue mission tops $100 million in Texas

The cavalry has arrived for Ken Paxton in Texas as Republicans execute a large and astonishingly fast ramp-up in spending to fend off his Democratic challenger for Senate.In the last few weeks, Republicans have opened their wallets for Paxton, their nominee to succeed Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), in a big way. Texas PAC, an outside group linked to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), has committed nearly $120 million to date, a figure that could rise as high as $200 million when all is said and done.The level of spending is on top of the tens of millions invested by the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC and, more recently, President Donald Trump through his cash-flush super PAC, MAGA Inc. The air cover amounts to a rescue mission for Paxton, who has consistently been outraised by state Rep. James Talarico and is polling within the margin of error or slightly behind in a state Republicans haven’t lost in three decades. Paxton has won statewide three times as Texas attorney general, but carries political baggage from his 2023 impeachment trial and a messy divorce that Democrats have readily used to paint him as corrupt and ethically flawed.So far, national Democrats have poured more than $50 million into Texas to prop up Talarico, but their dominance of the airwaves ended after Labor Day, when GOP spending went up like a hockey stick. Starting this month, Republican spending by outside groups began to dwarf that of their Democratic counterparts.Ad trackers are now waiting to see how Democrats respond after Texas Forever, a super PAC linked to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), registered on Thursday night.At the campaign level, Talarico is running laps around Paxton — a common predicament for GOP Senate candidates, including in Texas. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) was unable to keep pace with Democrats Beto O’Rourke and then Colin Allred in his last two reelection campaigns.But the disparity this time is particularly large and matters due to the cheaper advertising rates given to candidates. Paxton has reported $17 million as of July through his campaign and joint fundraising committees, compared to $72 million for Talarico.Paxton’s allies are teasing a strong fundraising announcement for the third quarter, the final reporting period before the election. A source close to the campaign said it will be one of the highest totals for a GOP Senate nominee this year.Control of the Senate could come down to whether Texas is a firewall or one of the states that hands Democrats the majority in November. Republicans have offensive opportunities in Michigan and New Hampshire, battlegrounds currently represented by Democrats, but the midterm landscape is otherwise challenging — more so than Senate Republicans believe it should have been.Paxton became the nominee after a bitter primary fight with Cornyn, a four-term incumbent and prolific fundraiser who lost, in part, because Trump made a late decision to oppose him.All told, Cornyn and his Senate Republican allies spent $92 million trying to defeat Paxton, but failed in a May runoff. Then months passed with no clear indication whether the same resources would be marshaled in support of him.Republicans breathed a sigh of relief when Trump, after repeated pleas, began to spend his $400 million war chest. MAGA Inc. has invested close to $20 million after Republicans argued it was incumbent upon him to support someone they viewed as the weaker nominee.But it’s become clear that the lion’s share of the spending will come from Thune’s political apparatus, which maintains that it has enough cash and that the Texas investments aren’t taking away from contests in Ohio, Maine, and other Republican-held states.For context, the Thune-backed Senate Leadership Fund has announced $354 million in total spending so far and is one of the biggest drivers of GOP midterm advertising.Cornyn, meanwhile, is fundraising for many of the GOP candidates locked in competitive Senate races, but not Paxton. He raised $1.1 million for six of them at a Dallas fundraiser this past week that was headlined by former President George W. Bush.The midterm environment is poor enough for Republicans that the resources are needed to blunt voter backlash to the war in Iran and the usual headwinds for the party in power. In fact, Democrats are ahead in nearly all of the competitive races this cycle, according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls.In Texas, Paxton runs anywhere from 1 to 6 points behind Talarico, an inverse of the trend seen in past cycles when Cruz and Cornyn were on the ballot. Even during his competitive race against O’Rourke in 2018, Cruz held a consistent lead despite only winning by 3 points.THUNE KEEPS LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE TALK AT BAY — BUT WITH A MIDTERM QUESTION MARKThis time, Republicans are betting that Talarico’s apparent strength as a candidate is a mirage and that Texas voters will come home once they see ads painting him as too “woke.” Talarico has since walked back comments on transgender surgeries and Christianity, calling them “cringey,” and, like other Democrats, is leaning into the character attacks on Paxton.If he wins in November, Talarico would be the first Democrat to represent Texas in the U.S. Senate since 1993.