The EU loves Carney. That won’t necessarily make striking trade deals any easier

Open this photo in gallery:Prime Minister Mark Carney, left to right, French President Emmanuel Macron, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Council Antonio Costa and former British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at the G20 in Johannesburg, South Africa, in November, 2025.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian PressWhen Prime Minister Mark Carney takes the podium at the European Parliament on Thursday he’s certain to get a warm reception and strong support for deeper ties between Canada and the European Union. Mr. Carney has spent months cultivating European leaders and has won plaudits across the continent for standing up to U.S. President Donald Trump. “The U.S. has chosen confrontation with an ally − we choose a big hug,” said Valérie Hayer, a member of the European Parliament from France. The Prime Minister has yet to spell out what those deeper ties would look like or whether a much-ballyhooed “associate membership” in the EU is even viable. Analysts say there are plenty of opportunities for Canada in Mr. Carney’s transatlantic quest, but there are risks as well. Opinion: ‘Associate member’ of the EU? Why not, Canada?Mr. Carney has ruled out seeking full EU membership − and for good reason: Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union makes it clear that membership is open only to European states. So the closest Canada could get would be to follow the models of Norway, Iceland and Switzerland. Those countries have stayed out of the EU but have access to the single market and enjoy the free movement of people, workers and capital. By not joining the EU, all three countries have retained their autonomy in areas such as fisheries and international trade (Brussels manages trade on behalf of all 27 EU members). But the arrangements come at a cost. All three contribute to the EU’s budget and must accept the bloc’s rules and regulations, without any say. They do not elect MEPs and do not send bureaucrats to Brussels to look out for their national interests. Mr. Carney has reportedly rejected that model over concerns that it would compromise Canadian sovereignty. Instead, the talk has shifted to something being called “associate membership.” That designation doesn’t officially exist, but Canada could pursue an “association agreement” the EU uses as “a flexible framework allowing for varying degrees of co-operation across a wide variety of policy areas,” according to its website. Brussels has negotiated more than 20 association agreements with countries as diverse as Israel, Turkey, Chile and Egypt. In Europe, they have been used mainly as preparatory compacts for countries seeking full membership. Ukraine has an association agreement as part of its application to join the EU. Moldova, Andorra, San Marino, Georgia and the Western Balkans have similar agreements.If Canada were to choose this route, the process would be long and complicated.Opinion: Canada should get closer to the EU. But remember our history, and mind the gapBefore any talks took place, the 27 EU members would have to unanimously agree on a mandate for their negotiators. Negotiations can then take years, and several association agreements have stalled or been scrapped. And then, again, any deal would have to be approved by all EU members. Canada has already spent more than a decade finalizing a trade deal with the EU. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau and EU officials signed the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) in 2016. While most of the provisions have come into force, the deal has still not been ratified by 10 bloc members, including France, Italy and Ireland, partly because of concerns about agriculture. CETA eliminated tariffs on nearly all goods moving across the Atlantic. It also covers many services and seeks to harmonize regulations through regular consultations. The agreement has boosted Canada-EU trade somewhat, but the overall amount remains a fraction of Canada’s commerce with the U.S. Mr. Carney has said Canada is seeking “a unique alliance” that goes beyond CETA. He hasn’t provided details, but analysts say that could include separate deals in areas such as defence co-operation, energy security, access to rare minerals, the development of digital technology and student exchanges. “I have my doubts that they are going to go down the route of an association agreement,” said Mark Camilleri, the founder of the Brussels-based Canada EU Trade and Investment Association. “I think the leaders are going to be very focused on results and seeing what they can practically do in a shorter period of time.” European Parliament to open office in Ottawa, further strengthening Canada-EU tiesEoin Micheál McNamara, a postdoctoral fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, said Mr. Carney is well positioned to strike a new arrangement with the EU given that he shares the values of many European leaders. However, he added, “my concern would be is Carney marching away too quickly with this? Are the Canadian people ready to embark on this journey?”He cited a number of considerations. While Canada bristles under Mr. Trump, the next U.S. president could be more amenable to a trade deal. If Ottawa aligns too closely with the EU, it could be harder to renegotiate a North American agreement. Britain offers a warning. Since leaving the EU, the U.K. has faced difficulties managing trade between Northern Ireland and Ireland. The EU has insisted that Northern Ireland follow the bloc’s rules to maintain the free flow of goods across the Irish border. That has complicated the province’s trade with the rest of Britain, which no longer follows EU regulations.A Canada-EU-U.S. triad could be even more complicated for Ottawa to manage if it gets too close to the EU’s regulations, Dr. McNamara said. He also wondered if Canadians appreciate how slow the EU can be. “Are things going to move on in one big gulp, or are they going to move incrementally as they usually do, bit by bit? Because progress toward these things can be very, very tedious.”There are those who say that necessity could force Mr. Carney and the EU into being surprisingly nimble. “A glance at the EU’s history shows that many ‘impossible’ ideas have been bounced into reality by events,” said Martin Leng of the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics. “There has never been a better time for a bold pitch like Carney’s. Canada is in the market for dependable new partners, whilst Europe needs all the friends – and resources – it can get.”Mr. Carney and all Canadians will have to be patient, he added. “But in return, the Europeans should recognize a good bet when they see one.”