The Dolphins exceeded expectations at the Pan Pacs. There’s even better to come in LA 2028

Los Angeles: When half a dozen of Australia’s top swimmers decided not to compete at the Pan Pacific Championships, there were fears of an American bloodbath at the quadrennial event in Irvine, California.The reality could not have been more different. The USA won 19 gold medals to Australia’s 15 in a hugely encouraging sign for the Dolphins less than two years out from the Los Angeles Olympics.Two of their biggest stars, backstroker Kaylee McKeown (glandular fever) and freestyler Mollie O’Callaghan, (back) missed the event due to health concerns.Australia’s most bankable gold medal prospect right now is reigning Olympic and world champion Cam McEvoy in the 50m freestyle, but he was back in Queensland plotting his next campaign. Kyle Chalmers was on dad duties in Paris watching his wife compete at the European Championships – a meeting that has provided another useful measuring stick against the Dolphins’ performances in California.Flynn Southam, arguably Australia’s breakout star of the Commonwealth Games after his sizzling 47.09 in the 100m freestyle, posted photos of himself fishing back home, while 203-centimetre backstroker Henry Allan is back in Australia preparing for school exams. Shayna Jack has retired and is about to get married.Yet Australia filled those enormous gaps with aplomb, producing a stack of personal bests, unexpected winners and performances that suggest the Dolphins’ depth remains the envy of most swimming nations. Had Australia been at full strength, there is every chance they would have topped the medal tally.Swimmers of the meet winners Samuel Short, of Australia, left, and Kate Douglass, of the United States, hold their trophies at the Pan Pacific Championships in Irvine. AP Photo/GREGORY BULLSam Short (400m, 800m and 1500m freestyle gold) and Lani Pallister (200m, 400m and 800m freestyle gold, plus 1500m silver) were the obvious standouts. Both arrived in Irvine with scars from Paris. Short described his 2024 Olympic campaign as a “failure” after illness ruined his preparation, while Pallister contracted COVID-19 in Paris and, upon returning home, considered walking away from the sport.Two years later, their trajectories could hardly look more different.On the first night of competition at the LA Olympics in two years, they will contest the 400m freestyle finals in front of up to 38,000 spectators at SoFi Stadium, both as genuine gold medal chances.No Australian man has ever won three individual swimming gold medals at a single Olympics, while Shane Gould remains the only Australian swimmer to achieve the feat. Irvine showed how tough Short really is as he came good on his promise to “smash the Yanks”. A trifecta in LA will be incredibly difficult and Short would probably be happy with one gold.Lani Pallister celebrates her victory in the 800m freestyle.APPallister’s best chances of gold in LA remain the 800m freestyle, 1500m freestyle and 400m freestyle – in that order.Her victory over Katie Ledecky in the 800m free was the performance of the meeting from an Australian perspective, and an enormous psychological breakthrough. Ledecky had never been beaten over 800m at a major international meeting.Pallister also beat Ledecky in the 400m, but there was no hyperbole afterwards. She knows Irvine is not LA.Elsewhere, Australia’s inexperienced women’s 4x200m freestyle relay team had no right to beat the USA. Meg Harris clocked personal bests in the 50m and 100m freestyle but faces a fascinating battle over the next two years against a formidable group of American female sprinters, including Kate Douglass, who shaved 0.36 seconds off the 50m freestyle world record in one day.Kai Taylor and Flynn Southam celebrate Australia’s 4x100m freestyle gold medal at the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. Getty ImagesAustralia’s men’s 4x100m freestyle team is also quietly building momentum. They won world titles in 2023 and 2025 but haven’t managed Olympic gold since Sydney 2000. Harrison Turner continues to make significant freestyle improvements and, with Chalmers still in the picture, Australia suddenly has genuine depth in an event that for years revolved around one superstar.Olympic gold medallist Zac Stubblety-Cook appeared to be at a crossroads in his career, but somehow got his hand on the wall first in the 200m breaststroke, reminding everyone of the class that has made him a two-time Olympic medallist in the event. Gold in Irvine also completed his collection of major international titles – Olympic, World, Commonwealth and Pan Pacs.Jamie Jack could be anything after lowering his 50m freestyle personal best to 20.35. He is still chasing McEvoy, but will work closely with the ‘Professor’ in coming months as Australia looks towards the tantalising prospect of having two – three if you include Southam – genuine medal contenders in the shortest race on the program.Matt Temple also won his first gold medal at a major international long-course meeting in the 100m butterfly, another breakthrough for a swimmer who has spent years threatening the magical 50-second barrier. Sam Williamson’s comeback story from a horrific knee injury shows he could be a threat in LA.There are weaknesses, of course. Australia’s men remain vulnerable in the shorter backstroke, butterfly and breaststroke events. Without McKeown, Australia don’t have a world-leading swimmer in non-freestyle events.This meeting also showed that Canadian superstar Summer McIntosh is fallible.She was one perfect swim in the 200m freestyle away from holding five individual world records simultaneously, yet left Irvine with just one victory from her four events – the 400m individual medley. Even there, Australia’s Jenna Forrester continued an impressive month, getting within about three seconds of McIntosh and joking afterwards that she could finally see her.That matters because Olympic swimming is not simply Australia versus the United States.Australia almost beat the USA on the swimming medal tally at the Paris Olympics in part because McIntosh and French superstar Léon Marchand repeatedly took gold medals away from the Americans.Two years is a long time in swimming. Teenagers emerge, champions disappear, bodies break down and world records that once looked untouchable suddenly vanish.But on the early evidence, Australia is well positioned.Next year’s world championships in Budapest will provide the next major checkpoint.Australia’s swimmers toured UCLA’s facilities in LA on Sunday (Monday AEST) – the venue of the Olympic village – and also spent their pre-meeting training camp in San Diego, turning this trip into something of a reconnaissance mission for 2028.They have seen the city, sampled the conditions and know what it will take to beat Americans in their own backyard.Tom Decent is the chief sports writer for The Sydney Morning Herald.Connect via X or email.From our partners