The confidence economy: How Britain’s boldest businesses are using resilience to grow

Britain’s business outlook has been intertwined with the language of headwinds over the past few years, thanks to inflation, rate rises, energy prices, geopolitical tension, supply chain disruption, and changing tariffs.In 2026, many of those pressures remain but UK businesses are now adept at managing multiple challenges at once – and growing regardless, according to Amanda Murphy, CEO of Business & Commercial Banking at Lloyds.“Companies are turning from survival mode to growth mode,” she adds. “By now, all CEOs know that perfect conditions don’t exist, and many are taking the learned resilience built up over recent years and turning that into more confident decision making.”Having confidence despite uncertaintyHaving the confidence to grow despite uncertainty could avoid stagnancy for some businesses, says Amanda Murphy of Lloyds, picturedLloydsRunning the Lloyds division that looks after about a fifth of the UK’s businesses, Murphy (pictured above) is familiar with the trends and challenges in trade, funding, technology and customer service, giving her an informed view of the UK’s commercial landscape. She sees the UK’s difficult macro backdrop easing over the next year. Economists forecast UK growth will remain subdued through the next 12 months – but not static, with business confidence expected to gradually improve as geopolitical pressure eases.“Cost pressures are still constraining expansion plans,” Murphy explains, “although shortages have receded noticeably compared with six months ago. But inflation, while still a live concern, is expected to be less severe than in previous cycles even as it nears its peak this year, and the reduced likelihood of rate rises should offer some relief to businesses that want to borrow to invest or grow.”The base rate is forecast to stay at 3.75 per cent for the foreseeable future, and the data suggests that after the past decade of compounding disruption, British enterprise has proved its durability. Today, 84 per cent of UK businesses feel resilient in the face of ongoing economic turbulence, according to the Lloyds Business Barometer.“Those companies are investing through the uncertainty, when some of their competitors are pausing and waiting,” Murphy adds.“The version of resilience that involves over-indexing on cost strategy and short-term margin defence could leave a business in stagnation. This year, CEOs need to move from asking ‘How do we protect the downsides?' to 'How do we fund the upsides?' It’s about bringing more confidence into UK business discussions, and integrating trade, finance and technology into one single strategy.”Bridging the talent gap and accelerating executionUsing technology instead of simply talking about it separates the businesses that thrive and those that stallGetty ImagesOne ongoing point of friction, however, is the price of talent. “Skills shortages and rising wage costs are becoming one of the defining constraints on UK business,” Murphy reports.Lloyds is backing manufacturing and apprenticeship investment in a bid to shore up a future talent pipeline, including its partnership with the MTC (Manufacturing Technology Centre) to support training hubs in Coventry, Oxfordshire, Liverpool and North Tyneside.“Companies also need to invest in talent training – especially in AI, where there's a growing gap between businesses that talk about technology and those that actually invest in deploying it,” Murphy adds. “That divergence is becoming one of the sharpest lines between the businesses that grow and the businesses that stall.”Streamlining focus and strategyEven so, underlying business sentiment is more resilient than the headlines suggest: 57 per cent of UK companies expect to grow their workforce this year, the Business Barometer shows.“The differentiator between those that hope to do so and those that actually realise that ambition is in their speed of decision making and execution,” Murphy says. “When market opportunities present themselves, high-performing businesses act and use investment to grow, while competitors remain bogged down in risk analysis.”Successful businesses are prioritising a small number of high-impact choices and aligning funding to clear outcomes the business and commercial banking CEO adds.“The companies that are outperforming the market are using their capital to fund expansion, productivity improvements, or new operating capability, rather than simply plugging gaps,” Murphy says. “They’re making decisions based on data and market insight rather than instinct or habit, and their CEOs are integrating trade, finance and technology into a single strategy rather than treating each as a separate conversation.”None of this, Murphy stresses, is reliant on the external environment. “Success today is shaped less by the wider conditions businesses operate in, and more by how they respond to them.”Looking beyond Europe for global expansionBusinesses should consider exportation opportunities to further expand, says MurphyGetty Images/iStockphotoIf there is a missed opportunity in current British business thinking, it may be geographic, with companies still framing international opportunity primarily through a European lens when more dynamic growth can be found elsewhere.“The US is a natural fit for UK exporters, given shared commercial norms and mutual understanding, while in Southeast Asia there’s phenomenal opportunity,” Murphy adds.She knows the region well, having previously headed up commercial banking teams in Southeast Asia.“It’s such a dynamic, fast-growing area, with increasing per capita income meaning people are looking for better health and education services, and more luxury goods — there’s a real opportunity for British businesses to be part of that growth, which is coming at a much faster rate than we’re seeing in Europe.”Embracing the opportunity to exportThe cost of participating in those opportunities has also dropped significantly. Digital documentation and data-sharing tools have stripped out much of the expense — and effort — that once made international trade the preserve of large corporates with the capital to fund overseas offices and local teams.“When it came to overseas expansion, supply chain conversations used to be around building efficiency, but now it’s about building flexibility: companies in the UK can reassess where they source, manufacture and sell goods.”Murphy points to UK SMEs’ increasing number of ‘accidental exporters’ — companies that already have customers in Singapore, say, or the Middle East, without having built a deliberate strategy.“Exporting is an underused source of near-term growth,” she adds. “As a services nation, Britain has real strengths to build on — the opportunity is there for far more businesses than are currently taking it.”Turning AI ambition into actionUse AI effectively and it can help realise business ambition and free up time for staff to upskillMaskot - stock.adobe.comThe other high-profile business growth area is, of course, artificial intelligence. Murphy feels positive about the benefits businesses are seeing from AI adoption and how leaders can approach it pragmatically.She sees no evidence that automation is hollowing out entry-level roles or diminishing a future leadership pipeline, and rejects the idea that businesses face a binary choice between going ‘all-in’ on AI or being left behind.“It's not as binary as the narrative suggests,” Murphy asserts. “AI is augmenting roles, not replacing them. I see a real gap between how AI is discussed and what's actually happening on the ground.”Her guidance to business owners is to resist the overwhelming prospect of trying to embed AI into every area at once and instead start with a small number of high-value use cases, such as marketing analysis or financial accounting.The AI skills gap, though, is real: for one in around four businesses, according to the British Chambers of Commerce, this chasm is already affecting their operations. Murphy says there’s a practical solution, pointing to the array of free AI training resources now available, including Lloyds Bank Academy programmes for SMEs.Using human skills smartly“The businesses that will grow fastest are those who use the time AI frees up to actively upskill their workforce, rather than simply banking the cost savings,” she says.Murphy also points to the continued need for human judgement. She explains that while technology can accelerate decision-making, expert insight remains critical in helping businesses navigate complexity, and in making the right strategic calls.How can companies navigate the macro conditions they cannot yet predict for the coming 12 months? “Don’t rely on a single lever,” Murphy responds. "The most successful businesses will combine confidence, technology and talent, and use all three to expand. The UK isn't short of entrepreneurial talent, or world-class sectors and businesses — our challenge isn't ambition, it's turning that ambition into action.”All lending is subject to status. Eligibility criteria apply. Lloyds Bank data correct as of April 2026. Figure includes clubs, charities and societies.Lloyds and Lloyds Bank are trading names of Lloyds Bank plc. Registered Office: 25 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7HN. Registered in England and Wales no. 2065. Telephone: 0207 626 1500.Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority under Registration Number 119278.